Sherrone Moore's Big Decision

Coach Moore is all smiles in '25

The biggest headline of the college football offseason was arguably when the Michigan Wolverines landed Bryce Underwood, the #1 recruit in the nation, to be their QB of the future. The biggest question then became: when does the future become the present? If I was Sherrone Moore, which I am not, I wouldn't handle the current Michigan quarterback competition any differently. Moore doesn't plan to name the starter, at least not publicly, until game week.

After a 2024 season in which the Wolverines basically didn't have a QB, Moore and his coaches have stocked the QB room with plenty of options. So why make a decision any sooner than necessary? The first game of the season isn't for another 2-1/2 weeks, and there's still plenty of practice and plenty of QB reps to go around. Besides, why give the teams on Michigan's schedule any advance notice of how to prepare for the Wolverines' offense?

If I had to speculate, or if I were Coach Moore, I'd guess that Mikey Keene takes the field with the starters when Michigan opens the season against New Mexico. But I'd also make sure that after a couple of series, Underwood will make his Michigan debut. It will be a great opportunity for Underwood to get his feet wet and experience major college football. The Lobos won't likely present much of a challenge.

For me, it's less about the New Mexico game than it is about the following week: Michigan travels to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners. Oklahoma may not be toughest team right now, but Memorial Stadium is a tough place to play against a solid defense. Handing the reins to Keene in Norman gives Michigan a chance to get off to a good start without putting too much pressure on their star freshman. Underwood will offer a change-of-pace off the bench as he would have vs New Mexico.

Should all go well against Oklahoma, I would not be surprised to see Underwood named the permanent starter by the time the Wolverines host Central Michigan. It's similar to how Jim Harbaugh integrated J.J. McCarthy into the Michigan offense while Cade McNamara was the veteran starter. Unlike that season, though, I would like to see Underwood take the reins from Keene before season's end. (You may recall how McNamara, a limited QB at best, was simply overwhelmed against Georgia in the National Semifinals. McCarthy didn't have enough experience at that point to provide any real boost off the bench.)

Michigan fans will be clamoring for Underwood, and rightfully so. When a player with that much talent arrives in town, you want to see him play. But Coach Moore is right to take a cautious approach. Taking half the snaps over the first two weeks will not hamper Underwood's development. In fact, by relieving the pressure on him to be the Savior in Week 1, Moore will allow Underwood to shine by season's end.

The Old Man and the Heels

A Hall of Fame coach, once revered, is struggling. He is 73 years old, trying to adapt to modern football amidst whispers that the game has passed him by. Finally, once it has become clear that the situation has reached its nadir, the coach and the team part ways.

That's what happened to Mack Brown at North Carolina. But that story is eerily similar to how Bill Belichick left New England. So when rumors started flying that Belichick was interested in taking over the head coaching job at North Carolina, I was immediately skeptical. After all, what sense did that make? Swap one over-the-hill coach for another? 

Yet here we are: Bill Belichick, with zero head-coaching experience at the college level, has signed on to lead North Carolina. Serving as head coach of a power conference program in the NIL-Transfer Portal Era is hard work. Just ask Nick Saban, the GOAT himself, how he felt about doing that job in his 70s. The job is so complex these days, that two head coaches - Chip Kelly and Gus Malzahn - both left their head-coaching jobs to become assistants instead.

There are some coaches who have found success at both the NCAA and NFL levels. Notable examples are Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh. But both had extensive experience in the college and pro ranks before becoming champions. (It's also worth noting that upon winning a National Championship last year at Michigan, Harbaugh bolted right back to the NFL.)

But back to Belichick. What, exactly, does he offer North Carolina RIGHT NOW? Belichick's Patriots went 29-38 over his last 4 seasons, losing in their only playoff appearance. Clearly, the NFL was no longer enamored with him. Next year's top high school recruits would have been 11 years old the last time Belichick won a Super Bowl. How much pull do you think a man not known for his charisma will have in those living rooms? Many coaches complain that with the portal, recruiting has become a year-round job, on top of all the other responsibilities a head coach shoulders. How much appetite do you think a 72-year-old man will have for that recruiting trail? 

One saving grace might be that North Carolina is not Alabama. A new coach who wins 9 games and flirts with a playoff appearance is a lost season in Tuscaloosa. In Chapel Hill, that's considered winning. But North Carolina administrators, fans and boosters are expecting a lot from their $50 million investment. What happens when the Tar Heels don't immediately succeed? Belichick's prickly personality and adversarial relationship with the media are well known. In his Super Bowl days, that could have been considered charming. Winning covers a multitude of sins. Terse answers and a curmudgeonly vibe don't go over as well when you're 6-6.

I don't have high hopes for the Belichick Experiment at North Carolina. Upon being introduced, Belichick spoke about how he wants to create a "pro program" at Carolina. "I would say through my experience, what we did in terms of training, developing players, running pro systems, pro techniques." Except the Tar Heel players are not pros. They are 19- and 20-year old kids, prone to head-scratching decisions and behavior. There are just too many ways for a coach to fail, even before he ever takes the field. Recruiting players, both in high school and via the portal, then constructing a coaching staff around those players. In a world of infinite possibilities, the genius of Bill Belichick just might translate into a college football powerhouse. My guess is that the number-crunchers at North Carolina will eventually need to figure out how much of Belichick's contract they're willing to eat before starting over, yet again.

As Clear As Mud

Over the past few years, "Harbaugh to the NFL" has become as much a part of the college football post-season as Dr. Pepper. During the early stretch of Harbaugh's Michigan tenure, it was mostly about his failures. The typical Michigan fan, at that time, would have paid to help him move. But as Michigan's fortunes have improved -- back-to-back wins over Ohio State and spots in the College Football Playoffs -- so, too, have Harbaugh's NFL prospects improved.

After flirting with the Minnesota Vikings last year -- depending on who you talk to, it was either an interview he didn't get, or a nice conversation -- the rumor mill has started again. Harbaugh has been attached to the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers in recent days. Amidst all this swirl, though, one voice was absent. The one voice that could put to rest all the speculation.

On Wednesday, the Coach finally spoke:

“Although no one knows the future, I think I will be coaching Michigan next year.”

Thanks, Jim, that certainly settles matters. Or, read another way: "If no NFL team offers me a job, I will be back in Ann Arbor."

While this idle speculation is mostly fun and games for the media, it doesn't come without a cost. Harbaugh returning to Michigan is all well and good, but one group appears to be considerably less enthusiastic about the coach's constant waffling: top recruits. 

Nothing says "Come join our football program" quite like the constant rumors that the coach recruiting you will soon be working on Sundays instead. Is it a coincidence that coming off their best season in decades and another appearance in the CFP that Michigan's ranking for the 2023 Recruiting Class has plummeted to #17? 

For the 2023 class, not a single 5-star prospect decided to commit to the next 3 to 4 years under maybe? Coach Harbaugh. If the coach can't commit, how can you blame a recruit? You can bet Nick Saban is selling Nick Saban as much as he's selling Alabama. What is Harbaugh's answer in those living rooms when the "Are you going to the NFL" question inevitably arises? 

This is not to say that Harbaugh's equivocation is the sole reason for Michigan's recruiting struggles. In the immediate term, Michigan's haul of the 4th-ranked group of transfers will boost the 2023 team even more than some talented freshmen. But it would be nicer to have both.

Jim Harbaugh is gonna Jim Harbaugh, and that applies to any team that employs him. For years, it seemed like Michigan only got the nonsense part. Now they have the success, too. Unfortunately, it just seems harder to buy into the rah-rah-Michigan-Man act when his true desire seems to be a return to "the league where they play... for pay."

Guessing Game

Tomorrow night marks the first CFP rankings of the 2022 season. While there is always great anticipation around the first announcement, it ultimately means very little. In fact, it often seems that the committee is hedging their bets until the teams settle matters on the field. To wit, most would consider Tuesday night's first rankings to look like some variation of this:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Tennessee
4. Michigan

With all four teams unbeaten and playing well, few would argue with those selections. But a closer look tells us that it would be nearly impossible for the final rankings to end up the same. 

"The Game of the Year" will be played this Saturday, and either Georgia or Tennessee will knock the other from the unbeaten ranks. Not to be outdone, all signs point to Michigan and Ohio State bringing 11-0 records to their clash at the end of November. The losers of those contests, with 1-loss and not eligible for their conference's championship game, would need plenty of help to finish among the final four.

That's not to say the committee's job will be easy. In fact, the CFP leadership may find themselves faced with the following scenario:

• Alabama wins out, finishes 11-1 and captures the SEC West
• Georgia beats Tennessee and finishes 12-0, winning the SEC East
• If Alabama beats Georgia, a 1-loss SEC Champ is almost guaranteed a spot in the playoffs
• If Georgia, previously ranked #1, has only 1 loss in the championship game, they make a strong case for inclusion
• Meanwhile, the 1-loss Volunteers, having BEATEN Alabama and whose only loss would be to former #1 Georgia, would be the odd team out

You could also end up with another logjam if the above scenario plays out AND both Clemson and TCU finish unbeaten. Clemson would probably land at #3, while TCU and the Big 12 may find themselves on the outside looking in.

Of course, there are lots of games to be played between now and the committee's final rankings in December. Attempting to predict how a group of 19- and 20-year-olds will perform on any given Saturday is an easy way to lose all your money. But that's not to say we won't be watching, and speculating, the whole time.

"It's Christmas, Theo, it's the time of miracles!"

Congratulations Coach Harbaugh. It's been a long time coming. The work isn't over yet, but you did something most of us thought would never happen.

GO BLUE!

 

Synthetic Debate

The second week of November not only brings us the latest College Football Playoff rankings but the inherent controversy around those standings. Perhaps even more so than the initial rankings, the CFP committee this week left some folks shaking their heads, with others shaking their fists. But might this be more of a "little c" controversy instead? 

The biggest point of contention this week centers around the state of Michigan: last week's #3 team, Michigan State, got clobbered by Purdue. The Spartans tumbled to #7, just behind... #6 Michigan! Yes, Michigan, the team that was previously unbeaten before falling to Michigan State the week before now sits ahead of them in the rankings.

This is a manufactured controversy. The committee viewed MSU's loss to Purdue, an unranked opponent, as a "worse loss" than Michigan's loss to an unbeaten, top 10 team in, ironically, Michigan State. But neither ranking on November 9th means anything.

With three weeks left to go before the conference championships, there is A LOT of football left to be played. Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face the #4 team in the CFP, Ohio State. OSU figures to be heavy favorites in both games, so chances are good both Michigan teams will drop from the top 10 before the season is out. Should either prevail, they could potentially end up in the top 4 themselves.

Another point of "contention" is Alabama and their spot at #2. With one loss, the Crimson Tide has fans of unbeaten Cincinnati and Oklahoma crying foul. The Oregon and OSU camps have also raised questions about the Tide. But again: if things play out as expected, Alabama will face #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, a 2-loss Alabama team drops out of the playoff picture. Should 'Bama prevail, they would likely rise to #1 and confirm the committee's perceptions. 

Less controversial, but still hotly debated, are those two previously mentioned unbeatens who can't seem to gain the respect of the committee: Cincinnati and Oklahoma. Though both the Bearcats and Sooners gained ground this week vs the initial rankings, neither cracked the playoff ceiling. 

Unlike the problems discussed above, these questions aren't as easily resolved. It's not hard to imagine both teams winning out and neither qualifying for the playoffs. While Cincy is vying to become the first non-Power 5 school to make the playoff, no unbeaten Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the cut. Could this be the year that the committee sends Oklahoma packing to the Sugar Bowl instead?

Again, so many games have yet to be played. The results of this weekend's games will factor into next week's rankings. Who knows what will happen on Saturday or what we'll be arguing about on Tuesday? The playoff committee knows this all too well.

Enough Is Enough Is Enough

As the old saying goes, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The next obvious question becomes, "How many times does Jim Harbaugh need to lose a big game before it becomes apparent that he's not a big game coach?"

The smoke has cleared following Michigan's latest failure, a 37-33 loss to Michigan State on Saturday, yet another excruciating Wolverines' loss at the hands of a bitter rival. To that end, here is just a sampling of the ugly numbers from the Harbaugh Era against top competition: 

• 3-4 vs Michigan State
• 0-5 vs Ohio State
• 2-13 vs teams ranked in the Top 10
• 1-4 in Bowl games

In spite of their 7-0 record and #6 ranking coming into this weekend, anyone watching the 2021 Wolverines closely could have seen Saturday's game coming. Against Rutgers, Michigan got a big lead early, failed to close them out, but held on for the win. Off to an early start against Nebraska, Michigan once again failed to put a team away, going so far as fall behind before eventually making a comeback. Michigan State, though, is simply better than those other teams. Up 16 in the 3rd quarter, Michigan couldn't put Sparty away. The Wolverines were outscored 23-3 the rest of the way.

This is Year 7 under Harbaugh. Since he took over, Michigan has employed three different Offensive and Defensive coordinators. Not a lot of consistency there, though Don Brown was a defensive genius for five seasons, until he wasn't. Josh Gattis was brought in to modernize the Wolverines' offense. Similar to Brown, offensive performance improved under Gattis, until late in the game when it doesn't. 

At this point, it's no stretch to think that Michigan could lose to a scrappy Penn State team on the road. Don't even think about competing against Ohio State. Should that happen, Harbaugh will have another 9-3 record before making the inevitable trip to the Outback Bowl to get beaten by Auburn. 

After the true disaster that was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Harbaugh was given another chance to right the ship. Despite the 7-0 start, we're right back where we started. Michigan loses to top competition. Michigan loses to a big rival. Stop the insanity. Harbaugh needs to go.

Dogging the Dawgs

Don't get me wrong: the Georgia Bulldogs have the #1 defense in the country, by a lot. They are a ferocious bunch, having surrendered only 5 touchdowns in 7 games. It's not hard to see them arriving unbeaten to the SEC Championship game in December. In fact, perhaps only Florida will provide much of a test for the Bulldogs the rest of the way.

But before we anoint the Dawgs as national champs or even as a historic defense, we might want to take a deeper dive into those numbers. Specifically, exactly who has Georgia been stopping all season?

A quick check of their opponents tells the story. Here are the current total offense rankings for Georgia's seven opponents this season:

• #18 - Arkansas
• #30 - Auburn
• #76 - Kentucky
• #84 - UAB
• #114 - South Carolina
• #117 - Clemson
• #124 - Vanderbilt

Three of their opponents couldn't even crack the top 100 in offense. Two more aren't better than 75th. In fact, Arkansas was the only team Georgia played with even a top 20 offense. 

On average, those teams gained 373 yards per game, which would place them 85th in the nation. Take out Arkansas, the best offensive team the Dawgs have played, and their opponents' average falls to 356 yards, "good" for just 98th overall. Yes, Georgia shut these teams down. But it seems the rest of college football hasn't had much trouble with the likes of Vandy, S.C. or Clemson, either.

None of this is Georgia's fault. You play the teams on your schedule, and Georgia has absolutely dominated. Vanderbilt gained only 77 yards! Even as badly as those teams have moved the ball all year, their totals against Georgia were far short of their per game averages. But it certainly puts into perspective just how dominant a group the Georgia D has been.

All of this is a long way of saying: let's wait and see. More than likely, Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC Championship game. As of this week, the Crimson Tide has the 10th-best offense in the nation, averaging almost 500 yards per game. Alabama will be far-and-away the biggest test of the Georgia defense. 

Should the Dawgs get past the Tide, the College Football playoffs would await. So might a date with history. Or perhaps a date with Ohio State, the nation's top ranked-offense. As much as I hate both teams, that could be one helluva title game.

Off to a Fast Start

Once Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh re-signed on the (reduced) bottom line, the next big question in Ann Arbor became "Who will be the starting QB for the Wolverines in 2021?" Sure it's only August, but there's no time like the present to start second-guessing Harbaugh.

In a somewhat surprising decision, Harbaugh named redshirt sophomore Cade McNamara as the starting QB over highly-touted true freshman J.J. McCarthy. McNamara is the safe choice... which is why I thought that a coach on the hot seat like Harbaugh might want to roll the dice instead.

McNamara appeared in four games last season and made one start. He ended up with a total of 425 yards passing, 260 of which came in a win against Rutgers. He completed 61% of his passes, earning a Passer Rating of 106.3. (As a means of comparison, Alabama's Mac Jones, the Heisman runner-up, had a mind-boggling rating of 203.1) So while McNamara was certainly more consistent than Michigan's other QB, Joe Milton, McNamara was nothing special. Given the way the Wolverines have played during Harbaugh's tenure, one would think that Harbaugh might want a little more than "nothing special" at the game's most pivotal position.

By all accounts, McCarthy is the real deal. A 5-star prospect with All-American tools, McCarthy is the future of Michigan's program. The only thing McCarthy lacks is experience, so why not begin the future right now? Let him get his feet wet against Western Michigan at home. A bigger test awaits in Week 2 as the Washington Huskies come to Ann Arbor. But even then, Washington is facing questions about their defense and might provide a higher profile opportunity for McCarthy to shine. 

By the time Michigan travels to Wisconsin in Week 5, McCarthy could be a seasoned Big Ten quarterback. Instead, should Harbaugh stick with the plan, McNamara will be under center for the biggest game of the season to that point. Will that be enough?

Another factor that works in McCarthy's favor is the very desperate need for Harbaugh to win and win now. Not that Harbaugh is big on making excuses, but starting McCarthy bakes the excuse right in: gaining reps and experience for McCarthy is a tradeoff. Maybe McNamara gives the Wolverines the best chance to win in Week 1 or 3, but an experienced McCarthy may be the only way Michigan will compete against Ohio State. Why not give him the chance to get better in real time against real competition, instead of just working it out in practice? 

It remains to be seen how Cade McNamara will play this season for Michigan. Can he improve on his performance from last year? Or will he be the same steady but unspectacular QB? Either way, it seems unlikely that J.J. McCarthy will remain on the sidelines for long. That being the case, I don't see any reason why he shouldn't take the ball right on that first Saturday in September.

Is One Man's Trash Another Man's Treasure?

A moderately interesting development has just occurred in Knoxville, TN. The Tennessee football program has dismissed their former 4-star freshman QB, Kaidon Salter, after a second off-field issue. How is the state of the quarterback depth chart on a second-tier SEC program interesting, you ask?

For those that may not remember, one of the aspiring starters now at Tennessee is transfer QB Joe Milton, late of the Michigan Wolverines. Yep, there's the connection.

Michigan's head coach Jim Harbaugh as been under fire for the past few seasons, especially after the abbreviated disaster of the 2020 campaign. Among the many problems the Wolverines face is the perceived talent gap between Michigan and other elite programs. But that gap may not be as great as it seems: Harbaugh's recruiting classes are typically among college football's best. That being the case, is it an indictment of Harbaugh and his staff that they can't get the best out of these prized recruits?

Enter Joe Milton, the perfect test case. Milton's cannon arm and imposing size had recruiters drooling, but he never developed as a competent passer at Michigan. In the hands of Josh Heupel, a coach who has a reputation for high-powered offense and elite QB play, will Milton fulfill his 4-star promise? Can Heupel's guidance transform Milton into an All-American at Tennessee, or will he be the same inconsistent and ultimately disappointing player we saw at Michigan?

While the Volunteers will have a rather crowded QB room this summer, without Salter there's one less hurdle for Milton to clear. Should Milton land the starting job in Heupel's offense, who knows what passing stats he could produce? It's a real-time experiment worth watching this season. 

Rules? Where We're Going, We Don't Need Rules

By now you've heard the unsurprising and predictable news that the Big Ten has reversed course and eliminated the minimum-game requirement to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game. In so doing, they named Ohio State as the winner of the East Division despite the Buckeyes having only played 5 games this season. Reaction was swift and about what you'd expect.

Perhaps the only surprise for me was just how quickly the Big Ten member schools rolled over to support this about-face. (Playoff appearances = CA$$$H! for member schools, in case you were questioning motivation.) But even Indiana, who would have been playing in their first Big Ten championship game, stood by the league's decision. Said Indiana Athletic Director Scott Dolson:

"From the start of the year, we have said we can only control what we can control. We had a chance to earn our spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, but ultimately fell a touchdown short on the road against a great Ohio State team."

That is certainly true, and even had Ohio State lost to Michigan, OSU would have held the tie-breaker and beat out Indiana for the East title. Few could argue that had OSU played a full slate of games they wouldn't be considered among the sport's best. But the arguments here didn't necessarily center on how good the Buckeyes looked, but rather how many opportunities they had to show it (or not).

Let's not forget that even in their best years, OSU could be counted on for at least one clunker, close call, or outright upset. Playing 10 games versus 5 certainly invites the possibility of a similar outcome to Clemson-Notre Dame or Florida-LSU. Speaking of Florida...  

Questioned after that consequential upset, Florida Head Coach Dan Mullen had some choice words when asked about his team's now dim prospects of heading to the playoffs:

"I know we’ve played 10 games so I guess probably the best thing to do would’ve been play less games. Because you seem to get rewarded this year for not playing this year in college football."

No pulling punches there, as Mullen echoes what many have said all during this crazy 2020 season. How does one compare the resume of a program with 10 games against SEC competition (four teams in the top 11 of the AP Top 25) to another that has played only half as many games? Do the results matter? If not, to Mullen's point, why play at all?

That outrage wasn't limited to the Big Ten. Last week, the ACC decided that neither Notre Dame nor Clemson needed to risk a possible upset and cut their seasons short in advance of their own ACC title game. This could potentially pave the way for two 10-1 teams to make the playoffs should Clemson avenge their earlier season loss.

In the end, there will be four teams set to face off in whatever version of the College Football Playoffs the 2020 season has to offer. Whoever they are will have a chance to settle the argument of "Who's best?" on the field. But the question of who deserves to have a chance to prove who's the best will echo throughout the sport long past when the games are played.

A Moot Point Can Still Be A Sore Point

As we await the start of what could be the 2020 college football season, or rather, what's left of it, there is plenty of time to fill. To that end, the Associated Press named their pre-season All-America Teams this week. Included on those teams were players from the Big Ten and PAC-12, schools that will not actually be playing in 2020 due to the cancellation of their conference seasons. Therefore, "not playing" would not excuse the fact that not a single player from Michigan made the lists.

I've been down this road before with Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines. He seems to recruit good talent, but that talent doesn't equate with winning. In fact, if one compares the strength of Michigan's recruiting classes with the lack of representation on All-America teams, it does make you wonder what happens once those prize recruits arrive in Ann Arbor.

Atop the list of All-Americans are few surprises: the SEC leads all conferences with 12 representatives, 8 first-team selections and 4 second-team. The Big Ten also landed 12 players on the list, though only 6 were first-teamers. As for the most-lauded schools, the Crimson Tide of Alabama scored 6 players combined on the first- and second-teams. Both Oregon and Ohio State had 3 representatives each.

Losing out to Alabama and Ohio State is nothing new. (Michigan already does plenty of that on the field.) But as you dive further into the lists and notice the schools represented, it does make you wonder where the Wolverines stand in the college football world.

The Big Ten was represented by 8 different schools, including perennial powers OSU, Penn State and Wisconsin. But players from mid-tier schools like Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota were also on the list, along with one rep each for Northwestern and Rutgers. No, one All-American does not a team make, and no one would confuse the Michigan program with Rutgers. But it's not a great look, even if Rutgers' best player is their punter. (He does get a helluva workout.)

Even though we won't be able to bash Harbaugh and the Wolverines this fall, it seems like there are still ample opportunities to complain about the state of the program. Bring on 2021!

Silk Purse or Sow's Ear?

It appears that any idle speculation that Jim Harbaugh and Michigan would part ways (mutually or otherwise) was simply that. As far as we know, Harbaugh will be coaching the Wolverines in 2020.

So what do we make of that? Is Michigan now destined to win 9 or 10 games a season, a second-tier program that consistently falls short of a Big Ten title or the playoffs? Is it okay that the measuring stick is used against the Brady Hoke or Rich Rodriguez eras and not against Ohio State?

While it's hard to say that Michigan would be more or less successful with a different coach, I came across an article that certainly made you think about it. The article listed the schools with the best recruiting classes, on average, over the past five years. Guess which maize and blue team was ranked 8th?

While those results are impressive, it's fair to say that Michigan has not been the 8th-best program in college football over that span. Don't just take my word for it: here's a list of teams that are considered the winningest football programs since 2012:

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Boise State
6. Georgia 
7. Appalachian State
8. LSU
9. Notre Dame
10. Wisconsin

The top four on the list are no-brainers, and forgive me if Boise State and App State, while successful, don't necessarily belong in this discussion. That said, the success of Notre Dame (14th in recruiting) and Wisconsin (not in the top 25) makes you wonder what Harbaugh has been doing with all those blue-chip recruits. 

At least according to certain metrics, Harbaugh seems able to recruit quality players, good for second in the Big Ten. Yet Wisconsin, by the metric of wins and losses, has seemingly produced better results. (The two teams have split four games since Harbaugh's arrival.) 

Is Harbaugh not getting the best out of his players? Is that raw talent not being molded into excellence? It's fair to note that Gus Malzahn hasn't consistently won at Auburn, while Texas is on their 3rd coach in less than 10 years despite their pipeline of talent. Would a different coach do a better job with the current talent on the Michigan roster?

On the other hand, would another coach be as dynamic a recruiter as Harbaugh? Would a Michigan program minus Harbaugh even be able to assemble a team as talented? Would it be worth the risk to find out?

Who's Got It Better than Us?

Some moments after Michigan fell into a 21-point 2nd quarter hole, I texted the following to my brother:

There is NO reason why Penn State should be a better team. Or why James Franklin should have better players. Or why a no prestige program like Wisconsin should be better. Or why Urban Meyer could leave and OSU doesn’t skip a beat.

The Jim Harbaugh era is over.

To the team's credit, Michigan put up a fight, cutting the deficit to a single touchdown before falling short, 28-21. But as I told my brother later that night, nothing beyond that point changed my mind.

Here's a bottom line stat for you: Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines are 1-10 against teams ranked in the top 10. Fact: they don't beat good teams. In a year with a favorable schedule like 2018, they can finish 10-2. This season, with ranked teams abound, they'll be lucky to win 9 games.

Placed within the college football universe, a 9-win season could be considered an achievement. But when your goal is to make the playoff and fight for a national championship, 9 wins won't do. Viewed from that perspective, this Michigan team is mediocre. I don’t know who the next Michigan coach should be but they need to start thinking about it now.

Harbaugh's recruits, in turn, are mediocre. After all, you’re a top ranked player, where do you want to play? Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and somehow, OSU, are schools that play for a title every year. Given a choice between Alabama or OSU or Michigan, where’s that kid going? Why can’t Harbaugh make that difference? And if he can't, why not see who can?

The simple math says that Michigan won't be playing for a title this year. The eye test says they won't be beating OSU, either. That would make him 0-5 against the Buckeyes. Again, if they're not playing for a title, and they're not beating OSU, then what has Jim Harbaugh brought to Michigan? More importantly, what would they lose if he left?

All Is Not Lost... Yet

"Oh, that's not good..."

Embarrassing. Dreadful. Whatever you want to call it, Michigan’s 35-14 loss to Wisconsin was an unexpected low point in a season that had already gotten off to a slow start. Fire Harbaugh? I don’t have anything against that move, except I don’t think that making a coaching change at this time would make any difference. You could only make an interim hire from within – the same guys that Harbaugh hired and who share his philosophy.

But while we’re all doom-and-gloom this week, I bring you a silver lining. A very thin sliver of a silver lining based on a tremendous hypothetical, but hope nonetheless. Michigan’s season isn’t over. In fact, this very loss could factor heavily into Michigan's first playoff appearance.

First, let me dispense with the obvious: the Wolverines would need to play MUCH, MUCH better than they played last week. They would, in fact, need to win all their remaining games. That would include wins against ranked Michigan State, Penn State and Notre Dame teams, as well as a win in the game that is to be played on November 30th against a certain team in scarlet and gray.  

So… let's imagine that the aforementioned miracle has occurred. Michigan has reeled off 9 straight wins, nearly half of them against ranked opponents. (Stop laughing and pay attention!) An 11-1 Michigan team would leapfrog in the standings an 11-1 Ohio State team who they just beat, leaving them ranked 6th. Who’s in the top 5, you ask?

Unbeaten Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Wisconsin (those guys!) would comprise the top 5, but the upcoming Conference Championship Week would make all the difference:

• SEC East leader Georgia and SEC West leader Alabama would play in what would effectively be a wildcard game: you win, you’re in. The loser, with one loss and without a conference title, plays in a New Year’s Six bowl
• Meanwhile, a similar scenario plays out in the Big 10. That one-loss Michigan team gets to avenge that very loss against unbeaten Wisconsin. Not only does beating the Badgers give the Wolverines the Big 10 Championship, but it's a November win against an unbeaten opponent – playoff committee style points! Wisconsin gets to play in the Rose Bowl
• Georgia drops, Wisconsin drops, and Michigan slides up to #4

Certainly this scenario plays out in a series of “what-ifs”, and that’s not even taking into account the monumental task of Michigan completely turning around their season to run the table. But if that happened, and everything else falls into place, Jim Harbaugh would save his job and Michigan would be on the way to the playoffs. (That first round matchup against Clemson? Let’s not get into that just yet…)

Are You Not Entertained?

The Alabama Crimson Tide returns to Tuscaloosa for their first home game of 2019, following their resounding, if uninspiring, season-opening victory over Duke.  While the Dukies seemed overmatched by the time the 4^thquarter rolled around, that’s nothing compared to this week’s tackle fodder.  The New Mexico State Aggies arrive in T-Town as a 55-1/2 point underdog.  You read that right.  The 130^th-ranked team in the FBS (that’s out of 130 teams, if you’re keeping track) is expected to lose this game by nearly 7 touchdowns.

Now what could possibly compel the Aggies to schedule a game with perennial powerhouse Alabama?  Ah, that would be $1.7 million that New Mexico State is being paid to get their collective heads handed to them.  Seems very “lambs-to-the-slaughter” but when you’re a team that’s already been bounced from the Sun Belt conference, you take games where you can get them.

No, my real question is this: what is Alabama doing playing a team like New Mexico State?  There’s always the old adage that you can’t simulate game speed.  True, but what if the team you’re scheduled to play just isn’t as fast as the scout team defense you line up against every afternoon?  I dare say that if the Tide simply played a game against their second-team units, it would be a more competitive game.

This isn’t an issue specific to Alabama.  Plenty of Power 5 schools pad their early-season schedules with directional schools (Northern This or Southeast That), FCS opponents, and the like.  And upsets do happen!  But Vegas seems to think the only upset this week will be if the student section for Alabama comes back for the second half.

Compete With Your Feet Up

The brackets are out and March Madness is in the air!  So let's talk about college football.  Specifically, an article with a headline that immediately caught my eye:

Harbaugh breaks down quarterback depth chart for spring

The accompanying blurb was even more eye-catching, or head-scratching:

"There's no possible way Shea Patterson will be able to put his feet up, in my opinion," Harbaugh noted.

I am all for competition, and certainly having a teammate push you along will ultimately make you a better player.  But having to look over your shoulder every time you make a mistake is not conducive to success.  So when Jim Harbaugh implied that Shea Patterson, Michigan's starting QB last season, will now be treated to a quarterback competition, it comes as an unwelcome surprise.

Patterson was impressive when he took over the offense in 2018. He only got better as the season went along, growing more comfortable each week in the Michigan system.  (Of course, that growth met an abrupt end against OSU and Florida, but let's not speak of these games.)

Why, then, would Harbaugh not just name Patterson his starting QB and let Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton duke it out for the backup role?  Does anyone other than Ed McCaffrey want to see Dylan under center against Middle Tennessee?

But why take my word for it?  Why not ask Wilton Speight, a guy who knows a little something about playing QB in Ann Arbor:

“I don’t know what y’all’s question marks were with Shea; I know everyone was super excited when he committed, and then leading up to the season.  When he was able to rip the ball down the field, he was pretty successful, right?  Correct me if I’m wrong.  He was airing it out.  Those guys were going up and getting the ball."

Thanks, Wilton.  Airing it out, indeed.  Something the Michigan program hadn't seen in quite some time.  (No offense, Wilton.)  Now comes the news that the Michigan offense will be more up-tempo under Josh Gattis.  That's an even more compelling reason to let Patterson simply work on learning the new offense without worrying about about who's coming for his job.

At this point, I'm willing to chalk this up to Jim Harbaugh being Jim Harbaugh, motivating his players during spring practice (even if some of those players may not require said motivation).  But when fall camp opens, I'd better hear a lot of "Shea is doing a really great job mastering Josh's new offense" and nothing about how the QB depth chart is in flux.

Premature Calculation

The pre-season college football rankings were released today.  On August 7th.  Over three weeks before the first real games are even played.  Are they really necessary in today's game?

I've always had issues with ranking teams so early.  After all, how is anyone supposed to gauge how 18- and 19-year olds are going to perform on college football's biggest stages?  In fact, pre-season poll numbers may only serve to prop up some teams that really aren't that good.  After all, if a #2 team survives a lackluster opener, how far would they really fall?  They're the #2 team, after all, even if the lower-ranked teams behind them might be better teams.

But more to the point, these rankings never seemed less relevant.  In past seasons, before the era of the Bowl Championship Series, pre-season rankings were the only way to gauge title contenders.  An early-season loss by a top-ranked team meant not only a tumble in the standings but a short-circuit to national title hopes.

But with the advent of the BCS came changes; most notably, the first actual BCS ranking wasn't released until late October.  That meant that all the prior poll results didn't explicitly count -- they merely factored into the ranking that determined the BCS score.  Even so, poll position was a key component of the BCS ranking.

While the BCS was an improvement over choosing a national champion by vote, it had its flaws and detractors.  That ultimately led to the creation of the College Football Playoff and the committee that makes the selections.  That CFP Committee uses strength-of-schedule as one of the key factors in determining their ranks.  In fact, there is very little reliance on polls, but rather how a team has been playing.  The end result is that an early-season loss carries much less penalty than a loss in November.

So if the Playoff Committee doesn't go by the polls, and the first ranking don't even come out until mid-season, then what exactly is the value of a pre-season poll?  I suppose fans need something to argue about until the real games begin.

Tim Tebow Is Sorta Right

With each season's selections for the College Football Playoff comes the inevitable controversy surrounding those picks.  While the CFP committee chooses the four teams that they feel are the best in the country, there are always schools -- and fans of those schools -- who feel they were unjustly left out.

Much of the discussion this season centered around Alabama and Ohio State.  In the end, the committee chose the one-loss Crimson Tide over the two-loss Buckeyes, even though Ohio State was the Big Ten champion and Alabama didn't even win their division.  Ironically, Ohio State benefited from the same type of decision when they were picked to compete in last year's playoffs ahead of the Big Ten champ Penn State.

But somewhat lost in the shuffle was the University of Central Florida.  The UCF Knights finished the regular season unbeaten -- 12-0! -- but were only ranked 10th by the playoff committee.  After a win in the Peach Bowl over 7th-ranked Auburn, the cries of injustice grew louder.  So loud, in fact, that they reached the delicate ears of Tim Tebow.  Tebow's response?

"There’s no question UCF [was overlooked].  But you need to go tell their president and athletic director to play a couple big-time teams in the regular season. You ask any analyst before they played Auburn and it would be really hard to justify them being in the top four with our eyes."

Tim has a point... the point being, an undefeated team that didn't beat anyone worth beating is not all that special.  More to the point, though: of the four teams that made the playoffs, which one would UCF beat?

Back in November, UCF gave up 42 points and over 600 yards in a win over USF.  What do you suppose Baker Mayfield and his Oklahoma offense would do against the Knight's defense?

So while the Knights were impressive in beating Auburn, that same Tigers team was manhandled themselves by Georgia in the SEC title game.  In fact, the Bulldogs literally ran over the Tigers with 238 yards rushing.  And let's not forget the Georgia defense: they held Auburn to only 259 yards of offense compared to the 400+ yards the Tigers gained in the Peach Bowl.

Over in the other bracket sits Alabama.  I'll just let you digest what the Crimson Tide did to the former #1-ranked, defending champion Clemson. While their 24-6 throttling may have lacked a degree of excitement, the Tide's methodical offense and staunch defense left Clemson with only 188 yards of offense.

What about UCF beating Clemson, you say?  After all, Auburn had beaten both Alabama and Georgia -- the two teams that will play for the national title -- and UCF knocked off Auburn.  Transitive Property anyone?

But even if we agree that Clemson looked like the most vulnerable team among the final four, that doesn't mean UCF was ever in any position to overtake them in the rankings.  This Clemson team was at or near the top of the rankings for most of the season.  While that doesn't mean anything on the field of play, it means a lot when it comes to picking who belongs in the college football playoffs.

Maybe UCF puts a Power 5 team on their schedule next time.  Maybe they even beat them.  Until then, they'll have to settle for calling themselves the national champions.

Make Up Your Mind, Dude!

"Make up your mind, dude, is he gonna shit or is he gonna kill us?!?"

Jeff Spicoli was taken aback by his friend's contradictory statements.  After this weekend, I'd like to ask the same thing of the College Football Playoff Committee!

On Sunday, the CFP released their final rankings, setting the teams that will play for the chance to win a National Championship: #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Ohio State and #4 Washington.  Certainly these are among the top college football teams in 2016 and are deserving of a spot.  But are they the most deserving?  And by what criteria?

As I wondered aloud in this column before, the committee faced a challenge in weighing Ohio State vs Penn State.  Yes, Ohio State was one of the top teams in the nation, losing only once against good competition.  An 11-1 team from a major conference is usually a solid choice for the playoffs.  But that one loss: it came at the hands of Penn State!  A Penn State team that, by virtue of that head-to-head-victory, played for and won the Big 10 Championship.  Certainly the committee had to struggle with leaving out a big-5 conference champion?  Apparently not.  Penn State -- Big 10 champs, winners of 11 games, the only team to hand Ohio State a loss -- finished 5th.

Don't get me wrong: I absolutely think Ohio State is a better team than Penn State.  In fact, I don't think Penn State is a very good team at all.  In fact, the real reason why I'm ticked off is that IF the CFP doesn't particularly value a conference championship, how is Penn State ranked ahead of Michigan?  The Wolverines, who finished what feels like a distant 10-2, placed 6th in the final rankings, behind a Penn State team that they absolutely throttled to the tune of 49-10.  That was no squeaker.

If not playing for a conference title doesn't matter, what does?  Head-to-head apparently doesn't count for much, as both Ohio State and Penn State (both ways) can now attest.  So now we're left to guess just what makes one team rank higher than another.  Make up your mind, dude.

The reality is that it actually didn't matter where Michigan finished in relation to Penn State.  As the winner of the Big 10 that is not in the playoffs, the Nittany Lions get an automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.  There they will face USC, who didn't win the Pac-12, didn't play for that title, but is the next-highest-ranked team from the Pac-12 at #9.

I, for one, will enjoy the Orange Bowl.