Of course, "generally" is not "universally". With any big trade, there are opinions on both sides. What to make of it? The way I see it, there are three likely outcomes that would determine the success of this trade:
First Scenario: The Yankees win a World Series in one of the next two seasons while Paxton is under contract and he contributes to the title.
This is the best-case Yankee scenario, obviously. It also negates anything that Sheffield does over the next two years, or frankly, for his career. Sure, if Sheffield becomes the next Max Scherzer, that's another story. But short of that, landing Paxton and a world championship makes this a win for New York.
Second Scenario: The Yankees don't win a title in the next two years and Paxton, effective or otherwise, signs elsewhere as a free agent. Sheffield fails to put it all together and ends up no better than a middling #3 starting pitcher.
In this case, the trade is a wash. The Yankees took a shot, it didn't pay off, but it doesn't appear to to have cost them anything. Can't blame them for trying.
Third Scenario: The Yankees don't win, Paxton doesn't do much of anything and Sheffield becomes a top major league starter.
This would be the Yanks' worst nightmare. Trading a top prospect for veteran help in order to put a good team over the top is always risky business. But to come away empty-handed only to see that prospect blossom into a star is devastating (see Smoltz, John).
I think option #2 is the most likely scenario. I don't think Sheffield is going to be a star, but I also don't think Paxton is going to become Chris Sale and lead the Yankees to a title. That's not to say that scenario #1 is out of the question: the Yanks do have enough talent throughout their lineup to compete with anyone. If Paxton does pan out as a #1 or a solid #2, they have a shot.
Ultimately, sizing up a trade before anyone plays another game is simply Hot Stove chatter. By October 2020, we should have a pretty good idea about who we can call this trade's winners and losers.
