Of Streaks and Swoons

No team in baseball had a better start to the 2022 season than the New York Yankees. In fact, after going 22-6 in June -- an amazing .786 winning percentage -- the Yanks' record stood at 56-21. Talk then turned to history: at that pace, a team that played .727 baseball would be projected to finish with 117 wins, the most ever in baseball. What a difference a few weeks make.

This past weekend, the Yankees were swept in a series for the first time this season, losing all 3 games to the St. Louis Cardinals. But that was only the icing on a very bad cake. In a stark contrast to their electric start, the Yankees have limped through the opening weeks of the 2nd half. Over the past 30 games, the Yankees are a woeful 12-18, including their first 5-game losing streak.

So what does this all mean? As the expression goes, "You're never as good as you look when you're winning, and you're never as bad as you look when you're losing." The 2022 Yankees, therefore, aren't going to win 117 games, but they're not likely to finish .500 either. 

Thanks to their historic start, the Yankees are still a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Their hold on the best record in the league, though, is tenuous. Fortunately for the Yanks, Houston has been scuffling, too. Otherwise the Astros would have passed the Yankees already. All that said, it doesn't seem like it's time to panic, but context is quite important here.

Say that instead of winning 56 games by July, the Yankees started the first 30 games of the season the way they've played of late. At 12-18 on May 4, that would have been good enough for 4th place in the A.L. East. Very few people would figure that team to win 22 games in a calendar month. 

The case could be made that the Yankees' current swoon impacted their moves at the trade deadline more than their hot start. They reinforced the lineup with Andrew Benintendi, and the rotation with Frankie Montas, both newly-apparent areas of need. Unfortunately, both players have blended seamlessly with their now cold-as-ice teammates. Benintendi is an abysmal 4-30 since donning pinstripes, while Montas got bombed in his first start for New York.

Where do they go from here? A trip to Seattle is up next, where the Yanks will face the one who got away, Luis Castillo. And though the Red Sox have been lost all season, one can imagine how they would relish playing the role of spoiler in a weekend series at Fenway. 

Beyond that, though, could be the stretch that defines the entire season: 9 straight games against the Rays, Blue Jays and Mets, all teams currently in playoff position. If the Yankees can't right the ship by then, even a division lead could be in jeopardy. It remains to be seen which Yankees team will show up over the next few weeks. 

Dispatches from the Trade Deadline

To Live and Die in L.A.

To no one's surprise, Joey Gallo was finally put out of his misery and traded by the Yankees. A certified disaster in pinstripes, Gallo likely had no shortage of fans willing to drive him to the airport, lest he miss his flight to Los Angeles. But before we pull the plug entirely on Gallo, there may be a ray of hope waiting for him in Chavez Ravine.

Let's turn our attention to another big-ticket slugger whose career had seemingly come to an end last season: Albert Pujols. Waived by the Angels in May after a rocky tenure in Anaheim, Pujols quickly latched on with L.A.'s marquee residents, the Dodgers. Used strategically as a pinch-hitter and part-time starter, Pujols found new life. With the Dodgers, Pujols raised his average nearly 60 points and posted his best OPS since the early days in Anaheim. 

Certainly Gallo wouldn't face the pressure he did in New York. If used in a similar fashion as Pujols, could Gallo rebound into a passable major league hitter? Or even regain his form as a fearsome slugger? The Dodgers would like to think that.

Rock Chalk, Yankees

The MLB Trade Deadline is its own cottage industry, as every pundit churns out a constant stream of potential trades and hot gossip. With so much content generated, there is bound to be overlap, and thereby, consensus. This year, the chalk said that the Yanks needed help in the outfield and in the starting rotation. Andrew Benintendi was the agreed upon bat, while Luis Castillo was the most coveted arm. Once Castillo was off the board, though, all Twitter fingers pointed to Frankie Montas. What say you, Brian Cashman? "Done and done."

Both are solid deals and significant upgrades, even if everyone knew the trades were coming. There is nothing inherently wrong with making the pre-ordained trade. If everyone says it will happen, that's probably because there's a need to be filled. 

Last season, though, anyone with a passing interest in baseball and an internet connection had the aforementioned Gallo ticketed for the Bronx. They were right. And you saw how that turned out. 

But the Yankees also made a trade few saw coming: adding another left-handed bat in the form of Anthony Rizzo. He contributed far more down the stretch than Gallo, even if few pundits had predicted it.

All that is a way of saying that it's now up to the players to perform. Will Benintendi be a Gallo or a Rizzo? Under the bright lights of Broadway, will Montas remind us more of David Cone than Sonny Gray? The next few months will tell that story. It will also tell us if Cashman's moves were as smart as they were obvious.

The Theory of Relativity

Speaking of pundits, few had the Mariners on their list of suitors for Castillo. Once that deal was done, many wondered if Seattle had given up too much for the All-Star righty. But to me, trade value is largely relative. What one team feels is too much to pay for an elite starter might be worth it for another. Case in point: the Mariners. 

Owners of the longest playoff drought in baseball, the Mariners pushed all their chips to the center and bet big on Castillo. We all remember what deadline-day stars Verlander, Sabathia and Scherzer did, performing at an elite level and leading their new teams to the playoffs. If Castillo does the same for Seattle, a playoff appearance will mean much more to this team and their fans than whatever those prospects do in 3 or 4 years.