All Is Not Lost... Yet

"Oh, that's not good..."

Embarrassing. Dreadful. Whatever you want to call it, Michigan’s 35-14 loss to Wisconsin was an unexpected low point in a season that had already gotten off to a slow start. Fire Harbaugh? I don’t have anything against that move, except I don’t think that making a coaching change at this time would make any difference. You could only make an interim hire from within – the same guys that Harbaugh hired and who share his philosophy.

But while we’re all doom-and-gloom this week, I bring you a silver lining. A very thin sliver of a silver lining based on a tremendous hypothetical, but hope nonetheless. Michigan’s season isn’t over. In fact, this very loss could factor heavily into Michigan's first playoff appearance.

First, let me dispense with the obvious: the Wolverines would need to play MUCH, MUCH better than they played last week. They would, in fact, need to win all their remaining games. That would include wins against ranked Michigan State, Penn State and Notre Dame teams, as well as a win in the game that is to be played on November 30th against a certain team in scarlet and gray.  

So… let's imagine that the aforementioned miracle has occurred. Michigan has reeled off 9 straight wins, nearly half of them against ranked opponents. (Stop laughing and pay attention!) An 11-1 Michigan team would leapfrog in the standings an 11-1 Ohio State team who they just beat, leaving them ranked 6th. Who’s in the top 5, you ask?

Unbeaten Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Wisconsin (those guys!) would comprise the top 5, but the upcoming Conference Championship Week would make all the difference:

• SEC East leader Georgia and SEC West leader Alabama would play in what would effectively be a wildcard game: you win, you’re in. The loser, with one loss and without a conference title, plays in a New Year’s Six bowl
• Meanwhile, a similar scenario plays out in the Big 10. That one-loss Michigan team gets to avenge that very loss against unbeaten Wisconsin. Not only does beating the Badgers give the Wolverines the Big 10 Championship, but it's a November win against an unbeaten opponent – playoff committee style points! Wisconsin gets to play in the Rose Bowl
• Georgia drops, Wisconsin drops, and Michigan slides up to #4

Certainly this scenario plays out in a series of “what-ifs”, and that’s not even taking into account the monumental task of Michigan completely turning around their season to run the table. But if that happened, and everything else falls into place, Jim Harbaugh would save his job and Michigan would be on the way to the playoffs. (That first round matchup against Clemson? Let’s not get into that just yet…)

Are You Not Entertained?

The Alabama Crimson Tide returns to Tuscaloosa for their first home game of 2019, following their resounding, if uninspiring, season-opening victory over Duke.  While the Dukies seemed overmatched by the time the 4^thquarter rolled around, that’s nothing compared to this week’s tackle fodder.  The New Mexico State Aggies arrive in T-Town as a 55-1/2 point underdog.  You read that right.  The 130^th-ranked team in the FBS (that’s out of 130 teams, if you’re keeping track) is expected to lose this game by nearly 7 touchdowns.

Now what could possibly compel the Aggies to schedule a game with perennial powerhouse Alabama?  Ah, that would be $1.7 million that New Mexico State is being paid to get their collective heads handed to them.  Seems very “lambs-to-the-slaughter” but when you’re a team that’s already been bounced from the Sun Belt conference, you take games where you can get them.

No, my real question is this: what is Alabama doing playing a team like New Mexico State?  There’s always the old adage that you can’t simulate game speed.  True, but what if the team you’re scheduled to play just isn’t as fast as the scout team defense you line up against every afternoon?  I dare say that if the Tide simply played a game against their second-team units, it would be a more competitive game.

This isn’t an issue specific to Alabama.  Plenty of Power 5 schools pad their early-season schedules with directional schools (Northern This or Southeast That), FCS opponents, and the like.  And upsets do happen!  But Vegas seems to think the only upset this week will be if the student section for Alabama comes back for the second half.