No, I'm not happy with the results of the NBA Draft Lottery. And yes, that's primarily due to the fact that I am one of the unfortunate souls who call themselves fans of the New York Knicks. While the Knicks did manage to avoid total disaster -- they had a 48% chance to end up with the 5th pick -- I'm not sure that landing the 3rd pick in the draft signifies that the curse has been broken.But as much as we mourn the loss of Zion and will soon grapple with the choices around that 3rd pick (TRADE IT!), this column is more about the NBA Draft Lottery as a whole. Specifically, is the system "working" when the three worst teams in the league end up with the 3rd, 5th and 6th picks?
We know that "tanking" is anathema to the league, and the NBA took steps this year to make it less attractive to lose. Gone was the incentive to finish dead last: instead of a 25% chance for the #1 pick, the team with the worst record only had a 14% chance at the top spot, the same chances as the two teams finishing ahead of (behind?) them in the standings.
So when the balls dropped, so did the league's worst teams: the Suns fell from the 3rd spot to the 6th, the Cavs from 2nd to 5th, and of course, the league-worst Knicks took home the bronze at #3. We are led to believe that these results make Adam Silver happy. "Take that losers!"
But even if we acknowledge that losing on purpose is bad, has the NBA found the right solution? Take a look at the bottom of the league:
Absent a lottery system, with the 5th-worst record in the league, the Hawks would pick 5th. As a result of the lottery, though, the Cavaliers will pick there instead. Let's even assume that the Cavs made no effort to win this past season and were content to finish with 19 wins. The Hawks were bad and only won 29 games, but that's still TEN GAMES better than the Cavs. What could Cleveland have done to win an extra 10 games with the team they put out on the floor? The same applies to the Suns, who had the same 19 wins but are picking 6th after losing a coin flip.
With all that in mind, will teams next season make every effort to win? Or is it still worth finishing in the bottom three for a chance at striking it rich? While these changes certainly curtail the incentive to flat-out lose, the NBA may have inadvertently hampered the league's worst teams from getting significantly better. Maybe there's no great solution, and I doubt we've seen the last change to the rules. Only time will tell how it all works out.
