Rules? Where We're Going, We Don't Need Rules

By now you've heard the unsurprising and predictable news that the Big Ten has reversed course and eliminated the minimum-game requirement to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game. In so doing, they named Ohio State as the winner of the East Division despite the Buckeyes having only played 5 games this season. Reaction was swift and about what you'd expect.

Perhaps the only surprise for me was just how quickly the Big Ten member schools rolled over to support this about-face. (Playoff appearances = CA$$$H! for member schools, in case you were questioning motivation.) But even Indiana, who would have been playing in their first Big Ten championship game, stood by the league's decision. Said Indiana Athletic Director Scott Dolson:

"From the start of the year, we have said we can only control what we can control. We had a chance to earn our spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, but ultimately fell a touchdown short on the road against a great Ohio State team."

That is certainly true, and even had Ohio State lost to Michigan, OSU would have held the tie-breaker and beat out Indiana for the East title. Few could argue that had OSU played a full slate of games they wouldn't be considered among the sport's best. But the arguments here didn't necessarily center on how good the Buckeyes looked, but rather how many opportunities they had to show it (or not).

Let's not forget that even in their best years, OSU could be counted on for at least one clunker, close call, or outright upset. Playing 10 games versus 5 certainly invites the possibility of a similar outcome to Clemson-Notre Dame or Florida-LSU. Speaking of Florida...  

Questioned after that consequential upset, Florida Head Coach Dan Mullen had some choice words when asked about his team's now dim prospects of heading to the playoffs:

"I know we’ve played 10 games so I guess probably the best thing to do would’ve been play less games. Because you seem to get rewarded this year for not playing this year in college football."

No pulling punches there, as Mullen echoes what many have said all during this crazy 2020 season. How does one compare the resume of a program with 10 games against SEC competition (four teams in the top 11 of the AP Top 25) to another that has played only half as many games? Do the results matter? If not, to Mullen's point, why play at all?

That outrage wasn't limited to the Big Ten. Last week, the ACC decided that neither Notre Dame nor Clemson needed to risk a possible upset and cut their seasons short in advance of their own ACC title game. This could potentially pave the way for two 10-1 teams to make the playoffs should Clemson avenge their earlier season loss.

In the end, there will be four teams set to face off in whatever version of the College Football Playoffs the 2020 season has to offer. Whoever they are will have a chance to settle the argument of "Who's best?" on the field. But the question of who deserves to have a chance to prove who's the best will echo throughout the sport long past when the games are played.

Time Will Be Telling

In November of 2018 (which seems more like 20 years ago than just two), the Yankees acquired James Paxton from the Mariners in exchange for their top pitching prospect at the time, Justus Sheffield. On the face of it, the trade seemed like a good deal, if only because Paxton was a major-league starter, ready to contribute to a championship contender. Meanwhile, Sheffield was only a prospect, that glorious time when a player's value can only be calculated by an organization's imagination. 

At the time, I wrote that the trade could play out in one of three ways.  Last season, Paxton started slowly but finished strong, but the Yankees didn't win. Meanwhile, Sheffield didn't look good at all in 2019.  Scenario #2, a wash for both teams, played out in Year One.

Year Two, which also happens to be Paxton's last season under contract, is nearly in the books. Paxton took a step back, battling health issues and making only 5 mostly unimpressive starts. It remains to be seen if the Yankees will win a title this year. Less likely will be Paxton making a significant contribution to that title run.

Meanwhile, something funny happened in Seattle. The Mariners made an unexpected push towards the playoffs. Leading that charge was a dominant Justus Sheffield. In September, Sheffield won his last 4 starts, averaging over 6 innings per start without giving up more than 2 runs. While only a small sample in a short season, those are looking like "ace" numbers.

Although no one could fault Cashman at the time for making a move -- it's what General Managers are paid to do -- hindsight is always 20/20. As with any trade, its success or failure may not be known for years. (Ask the guys who traded away John Smoltz or Jay Buhner.) 

If the Yanks let Paxton walk after two seasons without a championship, his acquisition would be no more than a footnote had Sheffield continued to pitch as he had in 2019. But if Sheffield builds upon his 2020 breakout and continues his upward trajectory, this deal may not so easily fly under the radar anymore.

A Moot Point Can Still Be A Sore Point

As we await the start of what could be the 2020 college football season, or rather, what's left of it, there is plenty of time to fill. To that end, the Associated Press named their pre-season All-America Teams this week. Included on those teams were players from the Big Ten and PAC-12, schools that will not actually be playing in 2020 due to the cancellation of their conference seasons. Therefore, "not playing" would not excuse the fact that not a single player from Michigan made the lists.

I've been down this road before with Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines. He seems to recruit good talent, but that talent doesn't equate with winning. In fact, if one compares the strength of Michigan's recruiting classes with the lack of representation on All-America teams, it does make you wonder what happens once those prize recruits arrive in Ann Arbor.

Atop the list of All-Americans are few surprises: the SEC leads all conferences with 12 representatives, 8 first-team selections and 4 second-team. The Big Ten also landed 12 players on the list, though only 6 were first-teamers. As for the most-lauded schools, the Crimson Tide of Alabama scored 6 players combined on the first- and second-teams. Both Oregon and Ohio State had 3 representatives each.

Losing out to Alabama and Ohio State is nothing new. (Michigan already does plenty of that on the field.) But as you dive further into the lists and notice the schools represented, it does make you wonder where the Wolverines stand in the college football world.

The Big Ten was represented by 8 different schools, including perennial powers OSU, Penn State and Wisconsin. But players from mid-tier schools like Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota were also on the list, along with one rep each for Northwestern and Rutgers. No, one All-American does not a team make, and no one would confuse the Michigan program with Rutgers. But it's not a great look, even if Rutgers' best player is their punter. (He does get a helluva workout.)

Even though we won't be able to bash Harbaugh and the Wolverines this fall, it seems like there are still ample opportunities to complain about the state of the program. Bring on 2021!

A Sprinter's Chance

PLAY BALL!

Or if the latest headlines are to believed, Major League Baseball will be back on either July 23 or 24. Since we are living in unprecedented times, the upcoming season will be unprecedented, too: a 60-game season, regionally isolated, leading up to a full slate of playoff series.

Conventional wisdom says that in a short series, the better team may not always win. A strange bounce, a hot starter, or an ill-timed slump and the underdog emerges. Could the same hold true for a short season? 

MLB teams are built for a war that stretches for 162 games. Over the course of a long season, the best teams rise to the top. It's hard to be a 90-win fluke. But throughout the season, even a mediocre team can get hot for a stretch. At the same time, even good teams run into a roster-wide slump now and then. Over time, these small bursts of hot play and cold spells tend to even out.

So what happens in a 60-game season when a mediocre team plays well, say for a 12-game stretch? That's 20% of the entire season! Put another way, those same 12 games in 2020 would represent the equivalent of a 32-game span in a normal 162-game season. A team that goes 8-4 over two weeks would have to go 21-11 to have the same impact. 

It will be interesting to watch if another team can make a Nationals-like run, this time over the regular season. Get hot at the right time and make a push for the playoffs and beyond.

Silk Purse or Sow's Ear?

It appears that any idle speculation that Jim Harbaugh and Michigan would part ways (mutually or otherwise) was simply that. As far as we know, Harbaugh will be coaching the Wolverines in 2020.

So what do we make of that? Is Michigan now destined to win 9 or 10 games a season, a second-tier program that consistently falls short of a Big Ten title or the playoffs? Is it okay that the measuring stick is used against the Brady Hoke or Rich Rodriguez eras and not against Ohio State?

While it's hard to say that Michigan would be more or less successful with a different coach, I came across an article that certainly made you think about it. The article listed the schools with the best recruiting classes, on average, over the past five years. Guess which maize and blue team was ranked 8th?

While those results are impressive, it's fair to say that Michigan has not been the 8th-best program in college football over that span. Don't just take my word for it: here's a list of teams that are considered the winningest football programs since 2012:

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Boise State
6. Georgia 
7. Appalachian State
8. LSU
9. Notre Dame
10. Wisconsin

The top four on the list are no-brainers, and forgive me if Boise State and App State, while successful, don't necessarily belong in this discussion. That said, the success of Notre Dame (14th in recruiting) and Wisconsin (not in the top 25) makes you wonder what Harbaugh has been doing with all those blue-chip recruits. 

At least according to certain metrics, Harbaugh seems able to recruit quality players, good for second in the Big Ten. Yet Wisconsin, by the metric of wins and losses, has seemingly produced better results. (The two teams have split four games since Harbaugh's arrival.) 

Is Harbaugh not getting the best out of his players? Is that raw talent not being molded into excellence? It's fair to note that Gus Malzahn hasn't consistently won at Auburn, while Texas is on their 3rd coach in less than 10 years despite their pipeline of talent. Would a different coach do a better job with the current talent on the Michigan roster?

On the other hand, would another coach be as dynamic a recruiter as Harbaugh? Would a Michigan program minus Harbaugh even be able to assemble a team as talented? Would it be worth the risk to find out?

Cheaters Never Prosper?

The fallout from the Astros' cheating scandal continues to reverberate around baseball. Immediately following MLB's decision to suspend Houston's GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch for one year, the Astros decided they didn't need to wait that long: both men were quickly fired by owner Jim Crane.

At the same time, penalties were not yet handed out to current Red Sox manager Alex Cora, himself a former member of the Astros' coaching staff and a key player in the cheating scandals for both teams. Perhaps taking another page from the Houston playbook, Boston and Cora decided to "part ways" even before the results of the investigation were produced.

So Luhnow, Hinch and Cora are all out of work, with their reputations so tarnished they'll likely never work in baseball again. But the question still needs to be asked: was it worth it?

We can talk about "tainted wins" or "fair play" all day. But here are the facts: the Astros all got World Series rings. The Red Sox got their parade. Everyone on those teams received the accolades, endorsements and pay raises that come with a world championship. Major League Baseball isn't about to vacate a title as the NCAA might have done.

Even better, those teams don't have to worry about their legacies moving forward. Barry Bonds has a lot of records that even asterisks can't take away, but the cloud of PEDs still hangs over him and his chances for the Hall of Fame. No amount of scrutiny can take away those rings now.

Teams will always attempt to get a competitive advantage. They've done it since the beginning of baseball and they won't stop now. Might these penalties make teams think twice before they step over the line? Perhaps. But it's clear that unless you get caught, the rewards outweigh the risks.