Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Silk Purse or Sow's Ear?

It appears that any idle speculation that Jim Harbaugh and Michigan would part ways (mutually or otherwise) was simply that. As far as we know, Harbaugh will be coaching the Wolverines in 2020.

So what do we make of that? Is Michigan now destined to win 9 or 10 games a season, a second-tier program that consistently falls short of a Big Ten title or the playoffs? Is it okay that the measuring stick is used against the Brady Hoke or Rich Rodriguez eras and not against Ohio State?

While it's hard to say that Michigan would be more or less successful with a different coach, I came across an article that certainly made you think about it. The article listed the schools with the best recruiting classes, on average, over the past five years. Guess which maize and blue team was ranked 8th?

List of the teams with the best average recruiting classes over the past 5 years

While those results are impressive, it's fair to say that Michigan has not been the 8th-best program in college football over that span. Don't just take my word for it: here's a list of teams that are considered the winningest football programs since 2012:
  1. Ohio State
  2. Alabama
  3. Clemson
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Boise State
  6. Georgia 
  7. Appalachian State
  8. LSU
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Wisconsin
The top four on the list are no-brainers, and forgive me if Boise State and App State, while successful, don't necessarily belong in this discussion. That said, the success of Notre Dame (14th in recruiting) and Wisconsin (not in the top 25) makes you wonder what Harbaugh has been doing with all those blue-chip recruits. 

At least according to certain metrics, Harbaugh seems able to recruit quality players, good for second in the Big Ten. Yet Wisconsin, by the metric of wins and losses, has seemingly produced better results. (The two teams have split four games since Harbaugh's arrival.) 

Is Harbaugh not getting the best out of his players? Is that raw talent not being molded into excellence? It's fair to note that Gus Malzahn hasn't consistently won at Auburn, while Texas is on their 3rd coach in less than 10 years despite their pipeline of talent. Would a different coach do a better job with the current talent on the Michigan roster?

On the other hand, would another coach be as dynamic a recruiter as Harbaugh? Would a Michigan program minus Harbaugh even be able to assemble a team as talented? Would it be worth the risk to find out?