Synthetic Debate

The second week of November not only brings us the latest College Football Playoff rankings but the inherent controversy around those standings. Perhaps even more so than the initial rankings, the CFP committee this week left some folks shaking their heads, with others shaking their fists. But might this be more of a "little c" controversy instead? 

The biggest point of contention this week centers around the state of Michigan: last week's #3 team, Michigan State, got clobbered by Purdue. The Spartans tumbled to #7, just behind... #6 Michigan! Yes, Michigan, the team that was previously unbeaten before falling to Michigan State the week before now sits ahead of them in the rankings.

This is a manufactured controversy. The committee viewed MSU's loss to Purdue, an unranked opponent, as a "worse loss" than Michigan's loss to an unbeaten, top 10 team in, ironically, Michigan State. But neither ranking on November 9th means anything.

With three weeks left to go before the conference championships, there is A LOT of football left to be played. Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face the #4 team in the CFP, Ohio State. OSU figures to be heavy favorites in both games, so chances are good both Michigan teams will drop from the top 10 before the season is out. Should either prevail, they could potentially end up in the top 4 themselves.

Another point of "contention" is Alabama and their spot at #2. With one loss, the Crimson Tide has fans of unbeaten Cincinnati and Oklahoma crying foul. The Oregon and OSU camps have also raised questions about the Tide. But again: if things play out as expected, Alabama will face #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, a 2-loss Alabama team drops out of the playoff picture. Should 'Bama prevail, they would likely rise to #1 and confirm the committee's perceptions. 

Less controversial, but still hotly debated, are those two previously mentioned unbeatens who can't seem to gain the respect of the committee: Cincinnati and Oklahoma. Though both the Bearcats and Sooners gained ground this week vs the initial rankings, neither cracked the playoff ceiling. 

Unlike the problems discussed above, these questions aren't as easily resolved. It's not hard to imagine both teams winning out and neither qualifying for the playoffs. While Cincy is vying to become the first non-Power 5 school to make the playoff, no unbeaten Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the cut. Could this be the year that the committee sends Oklahoma packing to the Sugar Bowl instead?

Again, so many games have yet to be played. The results of this weekend's games will factor into next week's rankings. Who knows what will happen on Saturday or what we'll be arguing about on Tuesday? The playoff committee knows this all too well.