Sherrone Moore's Big Decision

Coach Moore is all smiles in '25

The biggest headline of the college football offseason was arguably when the Michigan Wolverines landed Bryce Underwood, the #1 recruit in the nation, to be their QB of the future. The biggest question then became: when does the future become the present? If I was Sherrone Moore, which I am not, I wouldn't handle the current Michigan quarterback competition any differently. Moore doesn't plan to name the starter, at least not publicly, until game week.

After a 2024 season in which the Wolverines basically didn't have a QB, Moore and his coaches have stocked the QB room with plenty of options. So why make a decision any sooner than necessary? The first game of the season isn't for another 2-1/2 weeks, and there's still plenty of practice and plenty of QB reps to go around. Besides, why give the teams on Michigan's schedule any advance notice of how to prepare for the Wolverines' offense?

If I had to speculate, or if I were Coach Moore, I'd guess that Mikey Keene takes the field with the starters when Michigan opens the season against New Mexico. But I'd also make sure that after a couple of series, Underwood will make his Michigan debut. It will be a great opportunity for Underwood to get his feet wet and experience major college football. The Lobos won't likely present much of a challenge.

For me, it's less about the New Mexico game than it is about the following week: Michigan travels to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners. Oklahoma may not be toughest team right now, but Memorial Stadium is a tough place to play against a solid defense. Handing the reins to Keene in Norman gives Michigan a chance to get off to a good start without putting too much pressure on their star freshman. Underwood will offer a change-of-pace off the bench as he would have vs New Mexico.

Should all go well against Oklahoma, I would not be surprised to see Underwood named the permanent starter by the time the Wolverines host Central Michigan. It's similar to how Jim Harbaugh integrated J.J. McCarthy into the Michigan offense while Cade McNamara was the veteran starter. Unlike that season, though, I would like to see Underwood take the reins from Keene before season's end. (You may recall how McNamara, a limited QB at best, was simply overwhelmed against Georgia in the National Semifinals. McCarthy didn't have enough experience at that point to provide any real boost off the bench.)

Michigan fans will be clamoring for Underwood, and rightfully so. When a player with that much talent arrives in town, you want to see him play. But Coach Moore is right to take a cautious approach. Taking half the snaps over the first two weeks will not hamper Underwood's development. In fact, by relieving the pressure on him to be the Savior in Week 1, Moore will allow Underwood to shine by season's end.

As Clear As Mud

Over the past few years, "Harbaugh to the NFL" has become as much a part of the college football post-season as Dr. Pepper. During the early stretch of Harbaugh's Michigan tenure, it was mostly about his failures. The typical Michigan fan, at that time, would have paid to help him move. But as Michigan's fortunes have improved -- back-to-back wins over Ohio State and spots in the College Football Playoffs -- so, too, have Harbaugh's NFL prospects improved.

After flirting with the Minnesota Vikings last year -- depending on who you talk to, it was either an interview he didn't get, or a nice conversation -- the rumor mill has started again. Harbaugh has been attached to the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers in recent days. Amidst all this swirl, though, one voice was absent. The one voice that could put to rest all the speculation.

On Wednesday, the Coach finally spoke:

“Although no one knows the future, I think I will be coaching Michigan next year.”

Thanks, Jim, that certainly settles matters. Or, read another way: "If no NFL team offers me a job, I will be back in Ann Arbor."

While this idle speculation is mostly fun and games for the media, it doesn't come without a cost. Harbaugh returning to Michigan is all well and good, but one group appears to be considerably less enthusiastic about the coach's constant waffling: top recruits. 

Nothing says "Come join our football program" quite like the constant rumors that the coach recruiting you will soon be working on Sundays instead. Is it a coincidence that coming off their best season in decades and another appearance in the CFP that Michigan's ranking for the 2023 Recruiting Class has plummeted to #17? 

For the 2023 class, not a single 5-star prospect decided to commit to the next 3 to 4 years under maybe? Coach Harbaugh. If the coach can't commit, how can you blame a recruit? You can bet Nick Saban is selling Nick Saban as much as he's selling Alabama. What is Harbaugh's answer in those living rooms when the "Are you going to the NFL" question inevitably arises? 

This is not to say that Harbaugh's equivocation is the sole reason for Michigan's recruiting struggles. In the immediate term, Michigan's haul of the 4th-ranked group of transfers will boost the 2023 team even more than some talented freshmen. But it would be nicer to have both.

Jim Harbaugh is gonna Jim Harbaugh, and that applies to any team that employs him. For years, it seemed like Michigan only got the nonsense part. Now they have the success, too. Unfortunately, it just seems harder to buy into the rah-rah-Michigan-Man act when his true desire seems to be a return to "the league where they play... for pay."

"It's Christmas, Theo, it's the time of miracles!"

Congratulations Coach Harbaugh. It's been a long time coming. The work isn't over yet, but you did something most of us thought would never happen.

GO BLUE!

 

Synthetic Debate

The second week of November not only brings us the latest College Football Playoff rankings but the inherent controversy around those standings. Perhaps even more so than the initial rankings, the CFP committee this week left some folks shaking their heads, with others shaking their fists. But might this be more of a "little c" controversy instead? 

The biggest point of contention this week centers around the state of Michigan: last week's #3 team, Michigan State, got clobbered by Purdue. The Spartans tumbled to #7, just behind... #6 Michigan! Yes, Michigan, the team that was previously unbeaten before falling to Michigan State the week before now sits ahead of them in the rankings.

This is a manufactured controversy. The committee viewed MSU's loss to Purdue, an unranked opponent, as a "worse loss" than Michigan's loss to an unbeaten, top 10 team in, ironically, Michigan State. But neither ranking on November 9th means anything.

With three weeks left to go before the conference championships, there is A LOT of football left to be played. Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face the #4 team in the CFP, Ohio State. OSU figures to be heavy favorites in both games, so chances are good both Michigan teams will drop from the top 10 before the season is out. Should either prevail, they could potentially end up in the top 4 themselves.

Another point of "contention" is Alabama and their spot at #2. With one loss, the Crimson Tide has fans of unbeaten Cincinnati and Oklahoma crying foul. The Oregon and OSU camps have also raised questions about the Tide. But again: if things play out as expected, Alabama will face #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, a 2-loss Alabama team drops out of the playoff picture. Should 'Bama prevail, they would likely rise to #1 and confirm the committee's perceptions. 

Less controversial, but still hotly debated, are those two previously mentioned unbeatens who can't seem to gain the respect of the committee: Cincinnati and Oklahoma. Though both the Bearcats and Sooners gained ground this week vs the initial rankings, neither cracked the playoff ceiling. 

Unlike the problems discussed above, these questions aren't as easily resolved. It's not hard to imagine both teams winning out and neither qualifying for the playoffs. While Cincy is vying to become the first non-Power 5 school to make the playoff, no unbeaten Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the cut. Could this be the year that the committee sends Oklahoma packing to the Sugar Bowl instead?

Again, so many games have yet to be played. The results of this weekend's games will factor into next week's rankings. Who knows what will happen on Saturday or what we'll be arguing about on Tuesday? The playoff committee knows this all too well.

Enough Is Enough Is Enough

As the old saying goes, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The next obvious question becomes, "How many times does Jim Harbaugh need to lose a big game before it becomes apparent that he's not a big game coach?"

The smoke has cleared following Michigan's latest failure, a 37-33 loss to Michigan State on Saturday, yet another excruciating Wolverines' loss at the hands of a bitter rival. To that end, here is just a sampling of the ugly numbers from the Harbaugh Era against top competition: 

• 3-4 vs Michigan State
• 0-5 vs Ohio State
• 2-13 vs teams ranked in the Top 10
• 1-4 in Bowl games

In spite of their 7-0 record and #6 ranking coming into this weekend, anyone watching the 2021 Wolverines closely could have seen Saturday's game coming. Against Rutgers, Michigan got a big lead early, failed to close them out, but held on for the win. Off to an early start against Nebraska, Michigan once again failed to put a team away, going so far as fall behind before eventually making a comeback. Michigan State, though, is simply better than those other teams. Up 16 in the 3rd quarter, Michigan couldn't put Sparty away. The Wolverines were outscored 23-3 the rest of the way.

This is Year 7 under Harbaugh. Since he took over, Michigan has employed three different Offensive and Defensive coordinators. Not a lot of consistency there, though Don Brown was a defensive genius for five seasons, until he wasn't. Josh Gattis was brought in to modernize the Wolverines' offense. Similar to Brown, offensive performance improved under Gattis, until late in the game when it doesn't. 

At this point, it's no stretch to think that Michigan could lose to a scrappy Penn State team on the road. Don't even think about competing against Ohio State. Should that happen, Harbaugh will have another 9-3 record before making the inevitable trip to the Outback Bowl to get beaten by Auburn. 

After the true disaster that was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Harbaugh was given another chance to right the ship. Despite the 7-0 start, we're right back where we started. Michigan loses to top competition. Michigan loses to a big rival. Stop the insanity. Harbaugh needs to go.

Off to a Fast Start

Once Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh re-signed on the (reduced) bottom line, the next big question in Ann Arbor became "Who will be the starting QB for the Wolverines in 2021?" Sure it's only August, but there's no time like the present to start second-guessing Harbaugh.

In a somewhat surprising decision, Harbaugh named redshirt sophomore Cade McNamara as the starting QB over highly-touted true freshman J.J. McCarthy. McNamara is the safe choice... which is why I thought that a coach on the hot seat like Harbaugh might want to roll the dice instead.

McNamara appeared in four games last season and made one start. He ended up with a total of 425 yards passing, 260 of which came in a win against Rutgers. He completed 61% of his passes, earning a Passer Rating of 106.3. (As a means of comparison, Alabama's Mac Jones, the Heisman runner-up, had a mind-boggling rating of 203.1) So while McNamara was certainly more consistent than Michigan's other QB, Joe Milton, McNamara was nothing special. Given the way the Wolverines have played during Harbaugh's tenure, one would think that Harbaugh might want a little more than "nothing special" at the game's most pivotal position.

By all accounts, McCarthy is the real deal. A 5-star prospect with All-American tools, McCarthy is the future of Michigan's program. The only thing McCarthy lacks is experience, so why not begin the future right now? Let him get his feet wet against Western Michigan at home. A bigger test awaits in Week 2 as the Washington Huskies come to Ann Arbor. But even then, Washington is facing questions about their defense and might provide a higher profile opportunity for McCarthy to shine. 

By the time Michigan travels to Wisconsin in Week 5, McCarthy could be a seasoned Big Ten quarterback. Instead, should Harbaugh stick with the plan, McNamara will be under center for the biggest game of the season to that point. Will that be enough?

Another factor that works in McCarthy's favor is the very desperate need for Harbaugh to win and win now. Not that Harbaugh is big on making excuses, but starting McCarthy bakes the excuse right in: gaining reps and experience for McCarthy is a tradeoff. Maybe McNamara gives the Wolverines the best chance to win in Week 1 or 3, but an experienced McCarthy may be the only way Michigan will compete against Ohio State. Why not give him the chance to get better in real time against real competition, instead of just working it out in practice? 

It remains to be seen how Cade McNamara will play this season for Michigan. Can he improve on his performance from last year? Or will he be the same steady but unspectacular QB? Either way, it seems unlikely that J.J. McCarthy will remain on the sidelines for long. That being the case, I don't see any reason why he shouldn't take the ball right on that first Saturday in September.

Is One Man's Trash Another Man's Treasure?

A moderately interesting development has just occurred in Knoxville, TN. The Tennessee football program has dismissed their former 4-star freshman QB, Kaidon Salter, after a second off-field issue. How is the state of the quarterback depth chart on a second-tier SEC program interesting, you ask?

For those that may not remember, one of the aspiring starters now at Tennessee is transfer QB Joe Milton, late of the Michigan Wolverines. Yep, there's the connection.

Michigan's head coach Jim Harbaugh as been under fire for the past few seasons, especially after the abbreviated disaster of the 2020 campaign. Among the many problems the Wolverines face is the perceived talent gap between Michigan and other elite programs. But that gap may not be as great as it seems: Harbaugh's recruiting classes are typically among college football's best. That being the case, is it an indictment of Harbaugh and his staff that they can't get the best out of these prized recruits?

Enter Joe Milton, the perfect test case. Milton's cannon arm and imposing size had recruiters drooling, but he never developed as a competent passer at Michigan. In the hands of Josh Heupel, a coach who has a reputation for high-powered offense and elite QB play, will Milton fulfill his 4-star promise? Can Heupel's guidance transform Milton into an All-American at Tennessee, or will he be the same inconsistent and ultimately disappointing player we saw at Michigan?

While the Volunteers will have a rather crowded QB room this summer, without Salter there's one less hurdle for Milton to clear. Should Milton land the starting job in Heupel's offense, who knows what passing stats he could produce? It's a real-time experiment worth watching this season. 

A Moot Point Can Still Be A Sore Point

As we await the start of what could be the 2020 college football season, or rather, what's left of it, there is plenty of time to fill. To that end, the Associated Press named their pre-season All-America Teams this week. Included on those teams were players from the Big Ten and PAC-12, schools that will not actually be playing in 2020 due to the cancellation of their conference seasons. Therefore, "not playing" would not excuse the fact that not a single player from Michigan made the lists.

I've been down this road before with Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines. He seems to recruit good talent, but that talent doesn't equate with winning. In fact, if one compares the strength of Michigan's recruiting classes with the lack of representation on All-America teams, it does make you wonder what happens once those prize recruits arrive in Ann Arbor.

Atop the list of All-Americans are few surprises: the SEC leads all conferences with 12 representatives, 8 first-team selections and 4 second-team. The Big Ten also landed 12 players on the list, though only 6 were first-teamers. As for the most-lauded schools, the Crimson Tide of Alabama scored 6 players combined on the first- and second-teams. Both Oregon and Ohio State had 3 representatives each.

Losing out to Alabama and Ohio State is nothing new. (Michigan already does plenty of that on the field.) But as you dive further into the lists and notice the schools represented, it does make you wonder where the Wolverines stand in the college football world.

The Big Ten was represented by 8 different schools, including perennial powers OSU, Penn State and Wisconsin. But players from mid-tier schools like Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota were also on the list, along with one rep each for Northwestern and Rutgers. No, one All-American does not a team make, and no one would confuse the Michigan program with Rutgers. But it's not a great look, even if Rutgers' best player is their punter. (He does get a helluva workout.)

Even though we won't be able to bash Harbaugh and the Wolverines this fall, it seems like there are still ample opportunities to complain about the state of the program. Bring on 2021!

Silk Purse or Sow's Ear?

It appears that any idle speculation that Jim Harbaugh and Michigan would part ways (mutually or otherwise) was simply that. As far as we know, Harbaugh will be coaching the Wolverines in 2020.

So what do we make of that? Is Michigan now destined to win 9 or 10 games a season, a second-tier program that consistently falls short of a Big Ten title or the playoffs? Is it okay that the measuring stick is used against the Brady Hoke or Rich Rodriguez eras and not against Ohio State?

While it's hard to say that Michigan would be more or less successful with a different coach, I came across an article that certainly made you think about it. The article listed the schools with the best recruiting classes, on average, over the past five years. Guess which maize and blue team was ranked 8th?

While those results are impressive, it's fair to say that Michigan has not been the 8th-best program in college football over that span. Don't just take my word for it: here's a list of teams that are considered the winningest football programs since 2012:

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Boise State
6. Georgia 
7. Appalachian State
8. LSU
9. Notre Dame
10. Wisconsin

The top four on the list are no-brainers, and forgive me if Boise State and App State, while successful, don't necessarily belong in this discussion. That said, the success of Notre Dame (14th in recruiting) and Wisconsin (not in the top 25) makes you wonder what Harbaugh has been doing with all those blue-chip recruits. 

At least according to certain metrics, Harbaugh seems able to recruit quality players, good for second in the Big Ten. Yet Wisconsin, by the metric of wins and losses, has seemingly produced better results. (The two teams have split four games since Harbaugh's arrival.) 

Is Harbaugh not getting the best out of his players? Is that raw talent not being molded into excellence? It's fair to note that Gus Malzahn hasn't consistently won at Auburn, while Texas is on their 3rd coach in less than 10 years despite their pipeline of talent. Would a different coach do a better job with the current talent on the Michigan roster?

On the other hand, would another coach be as dynamic a recruiter as Harbaugh? Would a Michigan program minus Harbaugh even be able to assemble a team as talented? Would it be worth the risk to find out?

Who's Got It Better than Us?

Some moments after Michigan fell into a 21-point 2nd quarter hole, I texted the following to my brother:

There is NO reason why Penn State should be a better team. Or why James Franklin should have better players. Or why a no prestige program like Wisconsin should be better. Or why Urban Meyer could leave and OSU doesn’t skip a beat.

The Jim Harbaugh era is over.

To the team's credit, Michigan put up a fight, cutting the deficit to a single touchdown before falling short, 28-21. But as I told my brother later that night, nothing beyond that point changed my mind.

Here's a bottom line stat for you: Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines are 1-10 against teams ranked in the top 10. Fact: they don't beat good teams. In a year with a favorable schedule like 2018, they can finish 10-2. This season, with ranked teams abound, they'll be lucky to win 9 games.

Placed within the college football universe, a 9-win season could be considered an achievement. But when your goal is to make the playoff and fight for a national championship, 9 wins won't do. Viewed from that perspective, this Michigan team is mediocre. I don’t know who the next Michigan coach should be but they need to start thinking about it now.

Harbaugh's recruits, in turn, are mediocre. After all, you’re a top ranked player, where do you want to play? Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and somehow, OSU, are schools that play for a title every year. Given a choice between Alabama or OSU or Michigan, where’s that kid going? Why can’t Harbaugh make that difference? And if he can't, why not see who can?

The simple math says that Michigan won't be playing for a title this year. The eye test says they won't be beating OSU, either. That would make him 0-5 against the Buckeyes. Again, if they're not playing for a title, and they're not beating OSU, then what has Jim Harbaugh brought to Michigan? More importantly, what would they lose if he left?

All Is Not Lost... Yet

"Oh, that's not good..."

Embarrassing. Dreadful. Whatever you want to call it, Michigan’s 35-14 loss to Wisconsin was an unexpected low point in a season that had already gotten off to a slow start. Fire Harbaugh? I don’t have anything against that move, except I don’t think that making a coaching change at this time would make any difference. You could only make an interim hire from within – the same guys that Harbaugh hired and who share his philosophy.

But while we’re all doom-and-gloom this week, I bring you a silver lining. A very thin sliver of a silver lining based on a tremendous hypothetical, but hope nonetheless. Michigan’s season isn’t over. In fact, this very loss could factor heavily into Michigan's first playoff appearance.

First, let me dispense with the obvious: the Wolverines would need to play MUCH, MUCH better than they played last week. They would, in fact, need to win all their remaining games. That would include wins against ranked Michigan State, Penn State and Notre Dame teams, as well as a win in the game that is to be played on November 30th against a certain team in scarlet and gray.  

So… let's imagine that the aforementioned miracle has occurred. Michigan has reeled off 9 straight wins, nearly half of them against ranked opponents. (Stop laughing and pay attention!) An 11-1 Michigan team would leapfrog in the standings an 11-1 Ohio State team who they just beat, leaving them ranked 6th. Who’s in the top 5, you ask?

Unbeaten Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Wisconsin (those guys!) would comprise the top 5, but the upcoming Conference Championship Week would make all the difference:

• SEC East leader Georgia and SEC West leader Alabama would play in what would effectively be a wildcard game: you win, you’re in. The loser, with one loss and without a conference title, plays in a New Year’s Six bowl
• Meanwhile, a similar scenario plays out in the Big 10. That one-loss Michigan team gets to avenge that very loss against unbeaten Wisconsin. Not only does beating the Badgers give the Wolverines the Big 10 Championship, but it's a November win against an unbeaten opponent – playoff committee style points! Wisconsin gets to play in the Rose Bowl
• Georgia drops, Wisconsin drops, and Michigan slides up to #4

Certainly this scenario plays out in a series of “what-ifs”, and that’s not even taking into account the monumental task of Michigan completely turning around their season to run the table. But if that happened, and everything else falls into place, Jim Harbaugh would save his job and Michigan would be on the way to the playoffs. (That first round matchup against Clemson? Let’s not get into that just yet…)

Compete With Your Feet Up

The brackets are out and March Madness is in the air!  So let's talk about college football.  Specifically, an article with a headline that immediately caught my eye:

Harbaugh breaks down quarterback depth chart for spring

The accompanying blurb was even more eye-catching, or head-scratching:

"There's no possible way Shea Patterson will be able to put his feet up, in my opinion," Harbaugh noted.

I am all for competition, and certainly having a teammate push you along will ultimately make you a better player.  But having to look over your shoulder every time you make a mistake is not conducive to success.  So when Jim Harbaugh implied that Shea Patterson, Michigan's starting QB last season, will now be treated to a quarterback competition, it comes as an unwelcome surprise.

Patterson was impressive when he took over the offense in 2018. He only got better as the season went along, growing more comfortable each week in the Michigan system.  (Of course, that growth met an abrupt end against OSU and Florida, but let's not speak of these games.)

Why, then, would Harbaugh not just name Patterson his starting QB and let Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton duke it out for the backup role?  Does anyone other than Ed McCaffrey want to see Dylan under center against Middle Tennessee?

But why take my word for it?  Why not ask Wilton Speight, a guy who knows a little something about playing QB in Ann Arbor:

“I don’t know what y’all’s question marks were with Shea; I know everyone was super excited when he committed, and then leading up to the season.  When he was able to rip the ball down the field, he was pretty successful, right?  Correct me if I’m wrong.  He was airing it out.  Those guys were going up and getting the ball."

Thanks, Wilton.  Airing it out, indeed.  Something the Michigan program hadn't seen in quite some time.  (No offense, Wilton.)  Now comes the news that the Michigan offense will be more up-tempo under Josh Gattis.  That's an even more compelling reason to let Patterson simply work on learning the new offense without worrying about about who's coming for his job.

At this point, I'm willing to chalk this up to Jim Harbaugh being Jim Harbaugh, motivating his players during spring practice (even if some of those players may not require said motivation).  But when fall camp opens, I'd better hear a lot of "Shea is doing a really great job mastering Josh's new offense" and nothing about how the QB depth chart is in flux.

It's Now or Never

In a surprising move, Urban Meyer announced that he will be stepping down as the coach of Ohio State after the Rose Bowl and will retire from coaching.  I won't even argue that Meyer isn't one of the greatest coaches in college football history, if only because he also served as one of its greatest villains.  But this column isn't really about Meyer.

If there is anyone happier than Michigan's Jim Harbaugh this morning, please let me know.  Sure, there's the old competitive "I wanna beat that guy" mantra.  But there's also the "This guy completely has my number" lament, too.

Immediately following Michigan's disastrous 62-39 loss to Meyer and his Buckeyes, the cottage industry called "What's next for Harbaugh"revved up again.  A season spent avenging losses to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State was suddenly clouded by another defeat to the team in scarlet and grey.  

While I understood that criticism -- that was Harbaugh's fourth loss to Ohio State in as many tries -- it is hard to look at Michigan's season as anything other than a success when viewed from an objective lens: a 10-2 season, including a 10-game winning streak.  Decisive wins against conference foes.  The only two losses against top 10 teams, played on the road.  Another New Year's Six bowl game appearance.

With with Meyer's departure, though, I'm switching camps.  Michigan was the #3-ranked team in the country with the nation's best defense.  Their ticket to the College Football Playoff was written; all they needed to do was beat the Buckeyes.  They couldn't do it.  Harbaugh couldn't do it.  Without Meyer, Ohio State is still a good football team.  But Ryan Day is not Urban Meyer.  Next season, Jim Harbaugh needs to defeat Ohio State or he needs to move on.  That's a pretty big ultimatum, but where else is there to go?

Backing up the Backup

There were many questions surrounding John O'Korn as he led Michigan into a matchup against arch-rival Michigan State.  But by game's end, the biggest question O'Korn seemed to answer was "How bad would he need to play to make everyone miss Wilton Speight?"

O'Korn had served as the Michigan backup since his transfer from Houston.  Like all backup QB's, especially those with past success, O'Korn was imbued with all the qualities the current starter didn't have.  So when Speight struggled, thoughts turned to the backup.  With Speight injured and out of the lineup, O'Korn got his chance.  Meh.

It's now Year 3 of the Jim Harbaugh Era.  Along with the rest of Michigan Nation, I was very excited when Harbaugh returned home to coach the Wolverines.  Don't get me wrong -- I'm still a Harbaugh fan and don't think anyone else should be coaching Michigan.  But that doesn't mean he can't be questioned.

My biggest question: where's our Andrew Luck?  Graduate transfer Jake Rudock filled a gap at QB and allowed Harbaugh to recruit the next great Michigan signal-caller.  Speight, already on the roster when Harbaugh arrived, has performed well but certainly not without flaws since becoming the starter.  But with Speight out, possibly for the season, and O'Korn still looking like a backup, is there an opportunity to audition the next Luck?

I'm not expecting Harbaugh to throw in the towel and play an untested QB... at least, not yet.  But with Penn State looming on the schedule, would a 5-2 record be enough to make a change?  After Penn State, the Wolverines face Big Ten foes Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland: a combined 1-5 so far in conference play.  Wouldn't that be a low-risk opportunity to give Brandon Peters a shot?  Would it be a bad thing to let Peters get some experience against some lesser opponents, in the hopes that he'd be ready to face Wisconsin and Ohio State by season's end?  I sure wouldn't want to see what O'Korn will do.

Make Up Your Mind, Dude!

"Make up your mind, dude, is he gonna shit or is he gonna kill us?!?"

Jeff Spicoli was taken aback by his friend's contradictory statements.  After this weekend, I'd like to ask the same thing of the College Football Playoff Committee!

On Sunday, the CFP released their final rankings, setting the teams that will play for the chance to win a National Championship: #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Ohio State and #4 Washington.  Certainly these are among the top college football teams in 2016 and are deserving of a spot.  But are they the most deserving?  And by what criteria?

As I wondered aloud in this column before, the committee faced a challenge in weighing Ohio State vs Penn State.  Yes, Ohio State was one of the top teams in the nation, losing only once against good competition.  An 11-1 team from a major conference is usually a solid choice for the playoffs.  But that one loss: it came at the hands of Penn State!  A Penn State team that, by virtue of that head-to-head-victory, played for and won the Big 10 Championship.  Certainly the committee had to struggle with leaving out a big-5 conference champion?  Apparently not.  Penn State -- Big 10 champs, winners of 11 games, the only team to hand Ohio State a loss -- finished 5th.

Don't get me wrong: I absolutely think Ohio State is a better team than Penn State.  In fact, I don't think Penn State is a very good team at all.  In fact, the real reason why I'm ticked off is that IF the CFP doesn't particularly value a conference championship, how is Penn State ranked ahead of Michigan?  The Wolverines, who finished what feels like a distant 10-2, placed 6th in the final rankings, behind a Penn State team that they absolutely throttled to the tune of 49-10.  That was no squeaker.

If not playing for a conference title doesn't matter, what does?  Head-to-head apparently doesn't count for much, as both Ohio State and Penn State (both ways) can now attest.  So now we're left to guess just what makes one team rank higher than another.  Make up your mind, dude.

The reality is that it actually didn't matter where Michigan finished in relation to Penn State.  As the winner of the Big 10 that is not in the playoffs, the Nittany Lions get an automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.  There they will face USC, who didn't win the Pac-12, didn't play for that title, but is the next-highest-ranked team from the Pac-12 at #9.

I, for one, will enjoy the Orange Bowl.

Singin' the Maize and Blues

Back in March, I came across an article about Wilton Speight, a freshman QB prospect for Michigan.  Around that same time, I mentioned to my brother, a Michigan alum, that I wouldn't be surprised to see Speight in the starting lineup before season's end.  His response?

"You think he's just going to leapfrog Morris?  And a QB with no experience over a 5th year senior with talent? No thank you, I'll stick with Gardner."

Fast forward a few months, or an eternity in Michigan football time.  Gardner's already been benched following a lackluster start.  Unfortunately, new starter Shane Morris didn't look much better.  It's probably less an indictment of Morris than of the Michigan offense as a whole.  Gardner was slightly better in his mop-up role, but ran for nearly as many yards as he gained passing.  It may take some more time before the team can effectively run Doug Nussmeier's new Wolverine offense.

And speaking of time, with the Wolverine's losing 3 games in September for the first time in their 135-year football history, has the clock started ticking on Brady Hoke?  Chants of "Fire Brady!" were heard in the waning moments of the Minnesota game.  Fanning the flames may be the additional controversy surrounding Hoke's handling of Morris during the game.  Though replays showed Morris was nearly knocked silly, he remained in the game for one more play.  Hoke was unapologetic in the face of the growing criticism.

I'm not a huge fan of Brady Hoke.  While he was a good, stable choice to step into the abyss following the Rich Rodriguez disaster, I don't know that Hoke is the long-term answer for Michigan.  His football team has gotten progressively worse -- from 11-2 in his debut season to last year's 7-6 mark, and then to this year's 2-3 campaign.  By now, the roster should be filled with Hoke recruits, players he brought in to play his style of football.  The team should be getting better, not going backwards.  I'd also be hard-pressed to recall another signature victory since beating Ohio State in 2011.

Of course, all this hand-wringing is over a football season that is only one-third complete.  There are many games left to play.  That said, how many games will this Michigan team win with the likes of Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State still on the schedule?  In fact, without going out on too much of a limb, I'll make another prediction: unless Michigan beats Ohio State, Brady Hoke will have coached his last game from the Michigan sidelines.  Of course, Hoke will need to make it to that point first.  And who knows who'll be playing quarterback?

Patience...

So Rich Rodriguez has been fired. Finally! Wait, not yet, apparently.

Ordinarily, I wouldn't put much stock in rumors. However, this time it looks like only the timing is the issue. No one seems to be disputing whether or not Rodriguez will be gone; it's only a matter of when the university can make it official. If that's the case, then it's the news Michigan fans have been waiting to hear since not long after RichRod's first disastrous season.

Unfortunately, part two of the dream scenario doesn't appear likely: a Michigan man may not be coaching Michigan next season, either. According to John Harbaugh, Jim's brother and an NFL coach himself, don't look for Jim in Ann Arbor any time soon:

"I don't know what he's going to do. I think the Michigan thing is done now. I think that's over. I don't think he's going to have anything to do with that."

Simply based on how much effort Harbaugh put into ducking any questions about next season following last night's Orange Bowl, he would appear finished with Stanford. So if he's leaving Stanford, and not going to Michigan, then the NFL will be his next destination. That's too bad for Michigan, but I'll be all smiles anyway if the search for Michigan's next coach begins this week.

The Right Call

The headline blared, "Top Michigan recruit Dorsey denied admission to school". One of Rich Rodriguez's big signings, one of the guys who was going to help turn the tide for Michigan, had been suddenly barred at the door:

Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon says Florida prep football star Demar Dorsey has been informed he will not be admitted to the school.

And I say, good for you, Michigan. Good. For. You.

Demar Dorsey can't be the only talented defensive back in the country. And despite its recent woes, Dorsey can't be the only talented player willing to commit to Michigan. At a certain point, a university must hold itself to certain standards. Clearly the leadership at Michigan is willing to uphold those standards.

While I am disappointed that Michigan will now be without a potential star, Dorsey would only have been one of many missing pieces in the puzzle. Do Michigan's more stringent academic standards make it harder to compete against Ohio State, where you only need to be a resident to get in? Or Penn State, whose bar for admittance isn't much higher? Maybe. But when the program does turn around -- with Rodriguez, or perhaps, Jim Harbaugh, at the helm -- it will make it that much more impressive.

A Michigan man will coach Michigan

Now I will freely admit that I can't be the first person to think of this. Truth be told, though, I haven't yet seen it in print. Either way, let me state that Jim Harbaugh should be the next coach of the Michigan Wolverines.

Following last night's come-from-behind victory over Notre Dame, not long on the heels of Stanford's upset of mighty USC, Harbaugh's status as the next up-and-coming "Big Time Coach" is cemented. The cat, as they say, is out of the bag.

Now imagine, if you will, what Harbaugh might be able to accomplish in Ann Arbor. I'll wait. No longer having to pick through the leftovers in the PAC-10, once the USC's and Oregon's have signed their share of blue-chippers, Harbaugh would be recruiting for one of the nation's most storied programs. Well, at least historically. (More on that in a bit.)

Besides, while the West Coast offense is the NCAA's prevailing flavor, who wouldn't mind a Toby Gerhart smashing through the line for the Maize and Blue? And lest anyone worry whether this might be Bo II, a halfback pass, anyone? Or that nifty Flea Flicker? The mind wanders.

So what about the current Michigan head man? It's no secret that the Rich Rodriguez Era has not gotten off to a great start. Year One we all let slide. Given Rodriguez's history, the first year is the throwaway; the second year, though, is supposed to be the turnaround. And it sure looked like things were turning around in Year Two as Michigan jumped out to a 4-0 start. Then the Big Ten schedule kicked in.

Not everything about Michigan under Rodriguez is bad, mind you. They did score a lot of points. Tate Forcier, at times, looks like a big time QB. But unfortunately, the bad has far outweighed the good of late. The 3-13 Big Ten record. The practice scandal. The no-shows at the Big House. Some questionable hiring decisions. Somehow, it just doesn't add up.

That said, I fully believe Rodriguez will return to coach the Wolverines in 2010. It's too soon to pull the plug on a coach who had been very successful elsewhere. However, provided Harbaugh, in turn, returns to Stanford to coach another season, the Rodriguez Watch is officially ON. What will it take for Rodriguez to stay? I'll know it when I see it. But if Jim Harbaugh's Stanford Cardinal enjoys another year of success and Michigan can't turn it around, then the phone lines between Ann Arbor and Stanford had better be burning.

Danger, Greg Robinson!

Not everything went wrong for Michigan in 2009 -- they did score a lot of points. Of course, they also gave up a lot of points. A lot of points. Ergo, Greg Robinson needs to be fired today. Okay, so this post is a bit late in coming but it doesn't make it any less relevant.

Does anyone know how Robinson even got hired? Was it his exceptional success elsewhere? He was run out on a rail from Syracuse, where he went 10-37 in his four years as head coach. No, that's not a typo. His teams managed to win 1, 4, 2 and 3 games over the four miserable seasons Robinson coached the team. Certainly teams were lining up to hire this guy after Syracuse cut him loose.

Apparently, Robinson's only claim-to-fame was his stint as the Denver Bronco's Defensive Coordinator during their Super Bowl run in the late 90's. Raise your hand if you can name a single player on that Bronco's defense. Didn't think so.

Anyway, I'm sure there will be plenty of debate this off-season about the fate of Rich Rodriguez. Whether or not you feel RichRod should return, there's at least one person who should no longer be seen within the Ann Arbor city limits. Pull that trigger, Rich. Now.