Synthetic Debate

The second week of November not only brings us the latest College Football Playoff rankings but the inherent controversy around those standings. Perhaps even more so than the initial rankings, the CFP committee this week left some folks shaking their heads, with others shaking their fists. But might this be more of a "little c" controversy instead? 

The biggest point of contention this week centers around the state of Michigan: last week's #3 team, Michigan State, got clobbered by Purdue. The Spartans tumbled to #7, just behind... #6 Michigan! Yes, Michigan, the team that was previously unbeaten before falling to Michigan State the week before now sits ahead of them in the rankings.

This is a manufactured controversy. The committee viewed MSU's loss to Purdue, an unranked opponent, as a "worse loss" than Michigan's loss to an unbeaten, top 10 team in, ironically, Michigan State. But neither ranking on November 9th means anything.

With three weeks left to go before the conference championships, there is A LOT of football left to be played. Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face the #4 team in the CFP, Ohio State. OSU figures to be heavy favorites in both games, so chances are good both Michigan teams will drop from the top 10 before the season is out. Should either prevail, they could potentially end up in the top 4 themselves.

Another point of "contention" is Alabama and their spot at #2. With one loss, the Crimson Tide has fans of unbeaten Cincinnati and Oklahoma crying foul. The Oregon and OSU camps have also raised questions about the Tide. But again: if things play out as expected, Alabama will face #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, a 2-loss Alabama team drops out of the playoff picture. Should 'Bama prevail, they would likely rise to #1 and confirm the committee's perceptions. 

Less controversial, but still hotly debated, are those two previously mentioned unbeatens who can't seem to gain the respect of the committee: Cincinnati and Oklahoma. Though both the Bearcats and Sooners gained ground this week vs the initial rankings, neither cracked the playoff ceiling. 

Unlike the problems discussed above, these questions aren't as easily resolved. It's not hard to imagine both teams winning out and neither qualifying for the playoffs. While Cincy is vying to become the first non-Power 5 school to make the playoff, no unbeaten Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the cut. Could this be the year that the committee sends Oklahoma packing to the Sugar Bowl instead?

Again, so many games have yet to be played. The results of this weekend's games will factor into next week's rankings. Who knows what will happen on Saturday or what we'll be arguing about on Tuesday? The playoff committee knows this all too well.

Dogging the Dawgs

Don't get me wrong: the Georgia Bulldogs have the #1 defense in the country, by a lot. They are a ferocious bunch, having surrendered only 5 touchdowns in 7 games. It's not hard to see them arriving unbeaten to the SEC Championship game in December. In fact, perhaps only Florida will provide much of a test for the Bulldogs the rest of the way.

But before we anoint the Dawgs as national champs or even as a historic defense, we might want to take a deeper dive into those numbers. Specifically, exactly who has Georgia been stopping all season?

A quick check of their opponents tells the story. Here are the current total offense rankings for Georgia's seven opponents this season:

• #18 - Arkansas
• #30 - Auburn
• #76 - Kentucky
• #84 - UAB
• #114 - South Carolina
• #117 - Clemson
• #124 - Vanderbilt

Three of their opponents couldn't even crack the top 100 in offense. Two more aren't better than 75th. In fact, Arkansas was the only team Georgia played with even a top 20 offense. 

On average, those teams gained 373 yards per game, which would place them 85th in the nation. Take out Arkansas, the best offensive team the Dawgs have played, and their opponents' average falls to 356 yards, "good" for just 98th overall. Yes, Georgia shut these teams down. But it seems the rest of college football hasn't had much trouble with the likes of Vandy, S.C. or Clemson, either.

None of this is Georgia's fault. You play the teams on your schedule, and Georgia has absolutely dominated. Vanderbilt gained only 77 yards! Even as badly as those teams have moved the ball all year, their totals against Georgia were far short of their per game averages. But it certainly puts into perspective just how dominant a group the Georgia D has been.

All of this is a long way of saying: let's wait and see. More than likely, Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC Championship game. As of this week, the Crimson Tide has the 10th-best offense in the nation, averaging almost 500 yards per game. Alabama will be far-and-away the biggest test of the Georgia defense. 

Should the Dawgs get past the Tide, the College Football playoffs would await. So might a date with history. Or perhaps a date with Ohio State, the nation's top ranked-offense. As much as I hate both teams, that could be one helluva title game.

Are You Not Entertained?

The Alabama Crimson Tide returns to Tuscaloosa for their first home game of 2019, following their resounding, if uninspiring, season-opening victory over Duke.  While the Dukies seemed overmatched by the time the 4^thquarter rolled around, that’s nothing compared to this week’s tackle fodder.  The New Mexico State Aggies arrive in T-Town as a 55-1/2 point underdog.  You read that right.  The 130^th-ranked team in the FBS (that’s out of 130 teams, if you’re keeping track) is expected to lose this game by nearly 7 touchdowns.

Now what could possibly compel the Aggies to schedule a game with perennial powerhouse Alabama?  Ah, that would be $1.7 million that New Mexico State is being paid to get their collective heads handed to them.  Seems very “lambs-to-the-slaughter” but when you’re a team that’s already been bounced from the Sun Belt conference, you take games where you can get them.

No, my real question is this: what is Alabama doing playing a team like New Mexico State?  There’s always the old adage that you can’t simulate game speed.  True, but what if the team you’re scheduled to play just isn’t as fast as the scout team defense you line up against every afternoon?  I dare say that if the Tide simply played a game against their second-team units, it would be a more competitive game.

This isn’t an issue specific to Alabama.  Plenty of Power 5 schools pad their early-season schedules with directional schools (Northern This or Southeast That), FCS opponents, and the like.  And upsets do happen!  But Vegas seems to think the only upset this week will be if the student section for Alabama comes back for the second half.

No, it's not perfect, but don't blame Texas

In a column on CBSSports.com, Dennis Dodd is irked that Texas was invited to play Alabama for the National Title. Perhaps that's the safe pick -- not the "BCS chaos" as Brent Musberger so desired -- but hardly an outrage. Yet Dodd goes on to imply that somehow the outcome of the Big12 Championship wasn't on the up-and-up.

It just doesn't feel right, not when the two happiest men in college football Sunday were Dan Beebe and Walt Anderson.

It doesn't feel right because the Big 12 commissioner (Beebe) and his supervisor of officials (Anderson) were just as much a part of Saturday's furious finish to the season as was the football.

It doesn't feel right because half of the BCS title-game matchup was decided from the video replay booth. The commish and his supervisor had to put the final stamp of approval on Texas' 13-12 non-loss over Nebraska. Yeah, they got it right even after Texas almost got it unforgivably wrong.

Slow down, Dennis. The Big 12 commissioner did not decide that game. Nor did the officials. Unless you want to say that the officials made the correct call and allowed the game to finish as it should have. No one outside of Lincoln, Boise, or Fort Worth wanted to see that game end on an incomplete pass that sailed out of bounds. (Okay, so maybe it would have been a little funny.) Either way, Texas had one second left, and a chance to win. If you want to point the finger, what about Nebraska? Thanks to two stupid plays at the end of the game -- kick out of bounds and horse-collar tackle -- the Longhorns ended up in field goal range without much trying. Welcome to the title game.

While I don't see Texas putting up much of a fight against Alabama, again I can't fault Texas. Dodd goes on to argue that the Longhorns' season was uninspired -- maybe -- and that they're only in the title game because Texas began the season with a higher ranking. Again, that's not entirely ridiculous, but does anyone really think that either TCU or Boise State is a better team than Texas? Or would put up a better fight against 'Bama?

If nothing else, this situation calls for -- no screams for -- a playoff. Imagine if Texas played TCU while Boise State faced off against Alabama? Four unbeatens! That next game could truly be called the National Championship. But as the next best option, an Alabama - Texas showdown in Pasadena will have to suffice. (But that TCU - Boise State matchup might end up being the better game.)