Guessing Game

Tomorrow night marks the first CFP rankings of the 2022 season. While there is always great anticipation around the first announcement, it ultimately means very little. In fact, it often seems that the committee is hedging their bets until the teams settle matters on the field. To wit, most would consider Tuesday night's first rankings to look like some variation of this:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Tennessee
4. Michigan

With all four teams unbeaten and playing well, few would argue with those selections. But a closer look tells us that it would be nearly impossible for the final rankings to end up the same. 

"The Game of the Year" will be played this Saturday, and either Georgia or Tennessee will knock the other from the unbeaten ranks. Not to be outdone, all signs point to Michigan and Ohio State bringing 11-0 records to their clash at the end of November. The losers of those contests, with 1-loss and not eligible for their conference's championship game, would need plenty of help to finish among the final four.

That's not to say the committee's job will be easy. In fact, the CFP leadership may find themselves faced with the following scenario:

• Alabama wins out, finishes 11-1 and captures the SEC West
• Georgia beats Tennessee and finishes 12-0, winning the SEC East
• If Alabama beats Georgia, a 1-loss SEC Champ is almost guaranteed a spot in the playoffs
• If Georgia, previously ranked #1, has only 1 loss in the championship game, they make a strong case for inclusion
• Meanwhile, the 1-loss Volunteers, having BEATEN Alabama and whose only loss would be to former #1 Georgia, would be the odd team out

You could also end up with another logjam if the above scenario plays out AND both Clemson and TCU finish unbeaten. Clemson would probably land at #3, while TCU and the Big 12 may find themselves on the outside looking in.

Of course, there are lots of games to be played between now and the committee's final rankings in December. Attempting to predict how a group of 19- and 20-year-olds will perform on any given Saturday is an easy way to lose all your money. But that's not to say we won't be watching, and speculating, the whole time.

Of Streaks and Swoons

No team in baseball had a better start to the 2022 season than the New York Yankees. In fact, after going 22-6 in June -- an amazing .786 winning percentage -- the Yanks' record stood at 56-21. Talk then turned to history: at that pace, a team that played .727 baseball would be projected to finish with 117 wins, the most ever in baseball. What a difference a few weeks make.

This past weekend, the Yankees were swept in a series for the first time this season, losing all 3 games to the St. Louis Cardinals. But that was only the icing on a very bad cake. In a stark contrast to their electric start, the Yankees have limped through the opening weeks of the 2nd half. Over the past 30 games, the Yankees are a woeful 12-18, including their first 5-game losing streak.

So what does this all mean? As the expression goes, "You're never as good as you look when you're winning, and you're never as bad as you look when you're losing." The 2022 Yankees, therefore, aren't going to win 117 games, but they're not likely to finish .500 either. 

Thanks to their historic start, the Yankees are still a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Their hold on the best record in the league, though, is tenuous. Fortunately for the Yanks, Houston has been scuffling, too. Otherwise the Astros would have passed the Yankees already. All that said, it doesn't seem like it's time to panic, but context is quite important here.

Say that instead of winning 56 games by July, the Yankees started the first 30 games of the season the way they've played of late. At 12-18 on May 4, that would have been good enough for 4th place in the A.L. East. Very few people would figure that team to win 22 games in a calendar month. 

The case could be made that the Yankees' current swoon impacted their moves at the trade deadline more than their hot start. They reinforced the lineup with Andrew Benintendi, and the rotation with Frankie Montas, both newly-apparent areas of need. Unfortunately, both players have blended seamlessly with their now cold-as-ice teammates. Benintendi is an abysmal 4-30 since donning pinstripes, while Montas got bombed in his first start for New York.

Where do they go from here? A trip to Seattle is up next, where the Yanks will face the one who got away, Luis Castillo. And though the Red Sox have been lost all season, one can imagine how they would relish playing the role of spoiler in a weekend series at Fenway. 

Beyond that, though, could be the stretch that defines the entire season: 9 straight games against the Rays, Blue Jays and Mets, all teams currently in playoff position. If the Yankees can't right the ship by then, even a division lead could be in jeopardy. It remains to be seen which Yankees team will show up over the next few weeks. 

Synthetic Debate

The second week of November not only brings us the latest College Football Playoff rankings but the inherent controversy around those standings. Perhaps even more so than the initial rankings, the CFP committee this week left some folks shaking their heads, with others shaking their fists. But might this be more of a "little c" controversy instead? 

The biggest point of contention this week centers around the state of Michigan: last week's #3 team, Michigan State, got clobbered by Purdue. The Spartans tumbled to #7, just behind... #6 Michigan! Yes, Michigan, the team that was previously unbeaten before falling to Michigan State the week before now sits ahead of them in the rankings.

This is a manufactured controversy. The committee viewed MSU's loss to Purdue, an unranked opponent, as a "worse loss" than Michigan's loss to an unbeaten, top 10 team in, ironically, Michigan State. But neither ranking on November 9th means anything.

With three weeks left to go before the conference championships, there is A LOT of football left to be played. Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face the #4 team in the CFP, Ohio State. OSU figures to be heavy favorites in both games, so chances are good both Michigan teams will drop from the top 10 before the season is out. Should either prevail, they could potentially end up in the top 4 themselves.

Another point of "contention" is Alabama and their spot at #2. With one loss, the Crimson Tide has fans of unbeaten Cincinnati and Oklahoma crying foul. The Oregon and OSU camps have also raised questions about the Tide. But again: if things play out as expected, Alabama will face #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, a 2-loss Alabama team drops out of the playoff picture. Should 'Bama prevail, they would likely rise to #1 and confirm the committee's perceptions. 

Less controversial, but still hotly debated, are those two previously mentioned unbeatens who can't seem to gain the respect of the committee: Cincinnati and Oklahoma. Though both the Bearcats and Sooners gained ground this week vs the initial rankings, neither cracked the playoff ceiling. 

Unlike the problems discussed above, these questions aren't as easily resolved. It's not hard to imagine both teams winning out and neither qualifying for the playoffs. While Cincy is vying to become the first non-Power 5 school to make the playoff, no unbeaten Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the cut. Could this be the year that the committee sends Oklahoma packing to the Sugar Bowl instead?

Again, so many games have yet to be played. The results of this weekend's games will factor into next week's rankings. Who knows what will happen on Saturday or what we'll be arguing about on Tuesday? The playoff committee knows this all too well.

Simple Math

The 2021 baseball season is winding down, but the playoff races are heating up! As of this morning, the Yankees hold a 1/2-game lead on the Blue Jays for the second A.L. Wildcard. The Yanks are also 2 games behind the Red Sox, who would own the first Wildcard spot. The Yanks and Sox have 9 games left to play this season, while the Blue Jays have 10 on the schedule.

Who will win enough games to qualify for the post-season? Let's dig into the playoff math.

YANKEES

The Yankees play three games each against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays, the first two series on the road. The first thing that jumps out at you are the records: all three opponents are playoff contenders, well above .500 on the season. The optimist says that the Yankees have their fate in their hands: beat the teams ahead of you and move up in the standings. The realist looks at the head-to-head results and doesn't like what they show:

• 6-10 vs Boston
• 6-10 vs Toronto
• 7-9 vs Tampa Bay

Of the three teams fighting it out, New York has by far the toughest schedule.

BOSTON

Once they finish up with the Yankees at home, the Sox finish the season on the road... but against Baltimore and Washington. At 48-104, the Orioles have the worst record in baseball. Though the Nationals have played better of late, they aren't a very good team. They have also struggled mightily against .500 teams, going 29-56. It would be hard to see the Red Sox losing too many games past the Yankee series.

TORONTO

The Blue Jays will play 10 games, one more than the other two. Fortunately for them, they get the Twins four times, yet another cellar-dweller. The Jays will then face the Yankees and finish out the season at home against the aforementioned Orioles. Like Boston, the Jays don't face much competition beyond the Yankees for the rest of the way.

Like the saying goes, the games aren't played on paper. Anything can, and will, happen on the field. But you ignore the data at your peril. The Yankees are 19-29 against their remaining opponents. Boston and Toronto are a combined 45-22 against the teams they will face, including the Yankees. As had been said before, the baseball season is long enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The simple math says the Yankees will be watching the playoffs at home this October.

Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up?

Compared to all other sports, the baseball season is long. So long, in fact, that over 162 games, the season takes into account all the highs and lows, the streaks, and the slumps. The Yankees won 13 games in a row not long ago, then somehow pivoted into a 2-11 free-fall. Those 26 games taken as a whole work out to 15-11. A record of 15-11 doesn't sound all that special. But over an entire season, if a team won 15 of every 26 games they played, they'd finish with 93 wins. Cream rises, while the flukes usually sink.

The 2021 Yankees aren't a 93-win team. Of course, they're not really a 2-11 terrible team, either. The truth of the Yankees lies somewhere in between. Their record is akin to how they play: all-or-nothing, swing-and-miss but sometimes connect. Pitch well for a while, but maybe blow the lead, the save, or the game. I like to say they are “consistently inconsistent”.

In the end, they are the hallmark of the Brian Cashman era:

• Play well enough to appear competitive

• Win just enough to keep the stadium coffers full

• Do just enough to make it look like you know what you're doing

• Fail against better competition in the playoffs

• Repeat for 20 years

It remains to be seen what the Yankees will do over the final 21 games of the season. As of this morning, they would qualify for the 2nd Wildcard and a date with Boston at Fenway Park. But with another loss to the Mets and a Blue Jays win today, the Yanks would be out of a playoff spot.

Either scenario seems equally plausible. Less plausible is the idea that these Yankees will make a deep October push. The Sox, Jays and ultimately the Rays could be standing in their way. If that happens, if the Yankees make another early post-season exit, or fail to make it at all, will that be the final straw? Will Hal Steinbrenner channel his father in the name of winning? Will the Real Slim Shady please stand up?

Rules? Where We're Going, We Don't Need Rules

By now you've heard the unsurprising and predictable news that the Big Ten has reversed course and eliminated the minimum-game requirement to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game. In so doing, they named Ohio State as the winner of the East Division despite the Buckeyes having only played 5 games this season. Reaction was swift and about what you'd expect.

Perhaps the only surprise for me was just how quickly the Big Ten member schools rolled over to support this about-face. (Playoff appearances = CA$$$H! for member schools, in case you were questioning motivation.) But even Indiana, who would have been playing in their first Big Ten championship game, stood by the league's decision. Said Indiana Athletic Director Scott Dolson:

"From the start of the year, we have said we can only control what we can control. We had a chance to earn our spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, but ultimately fell a touchdown short on the road against a great Ohio State team."

That is certainly true, and even had Ohio State lost to Michigan, OSU would have held the tie-breaker and beat out Indiana for the East title. Few could argue that had OSU played a full slate of games they wouldn't be considered among the sport's best. But the arguments here didn't necessarily center on how good the Buckeyes looked, but rather how many opportunities they had to show it (or not).

Let's not forget that even in their best years, OSU could be counted on for at least one clunker, close call, or outright upset. Playing 10 games versus 5 certainly invites the possibility of a similar outcome to Clemson-Notre Dame or Florida-LSU. Speaking of Florida...  

Questioned after that consequential upset, Florida Head Coach Dan Mullen had some choice words when asked about his team's now dim prospects of heading to the playoffs:

"I know we’ve played 10 games so I guess probably the best thing to do would’ve been play less games. Because you seem to get rewarded this year for not playing this year in college football."

No pulling punches there, as Mullen echoes what many have said all during this crazy 2020 season. How does one compare the resume of a program with 10 games against SEC competition (four teams in the top 11 of the AP Top 25) to another that has played only half as many games? Do the results matter? If not, to Mullen's point, why play at all?

That outrage wasn't limited to the Big Ten. Last week, the ACC decided that neither Notre Dame nor Clemson needed to risk a possible upset and cut their seasons short in advance of their own ACC title game. This could potentially pave the way for two 10-1 teams to make the playoffs should Clemson avenge their earlier season loss.

In the end, there will be four teams set to face off in whatever version of the College Football Playoffs the 2020 season has to offer. Whoever they are will have a chance to settle the argument of "Who's best?" on the field. But the question of who deserves to have a chance to prove who's the best will echo throughout the sport long past when the games are played.

Premature Calculation

The pre-season college football rankings were released today.  On August 7th.  Over three weeks before the first real games are even played.  Are they really necessary in today's game?

I've always had issues with ranking teams so early.  After all, how is anyone supposed to gauge how 18- and 19-year olds are going to perform on college football's biggest stages?  In fact, pre-season poll numbers may only serve to prop up some teams that really aren't that good.  After all, if a #2 team survives a lackluster opener, how far would they really fall?  They're the #2 team, after all, even if the lower-ranked teams behind them might be better teams.

But more to the point, these rankings never seemed less relevant.  In past seasons, before the era of the Bowl Championship Series, pre-season rankings were the only way to gauge title contenders.  An early-season loss by a top-ranked team meant not only a tumble in the standings but a short-circuit to national title hopes.

But with the advent of the BCS came changes; most notably, the first actual BCS ranking wasn't released until late October.  That meant that all the prior poll results didn't explicitly count -- they merely factored into the ranking that determined the BCS score.  Even so, poll position was a key component of the BCS ranking.

While the BCS was an improvement over choosing a national champion by vote, it had its flaws and detractors.  That ultimately led to the creation of the College Football Playoff and the committee that makes the selections.  That CFP Committee uses strength-of-schedule as one of the key factors in determining their ranks.  In fact, there is very little reliance on polls, but rather how a team has been playing.  The end result is that an early-season loss carries much less penalty than a loss in November.

So if the Playoff Committee doesn't go by the polls, and the first ranking don't even come out until mid-season, then what exactly is the value of a pre-season poll?  I suppose fans need something to argue about until the real games begin.

Tim Tebow Is Sorta Right

With each season's selections for the College Football Playoff comes the inevitable controversy surrounding those picks.  While the CFP committee chooses the four teams that they feel are the best in the country, there are always schools -- and fans of those schools -- who feel they were unjustly left out.

Much of the discussion this season centered around Alabama and Ohio State.  In the end, the committee chose the one-loss Crimson Tide over the two-loss Buckeyes, even though Ohio State was the Big Ten champion and Alabama didn't even win their division.  Ironically, Ohio State benefited from the same type of decision when they were picked to compete in last year's playoffs ahead of the Big Ten champ Penn State.

But somewhat lost in the shuffle was the University of Central Florida.  The UCF Knights finished the regular season unbeaten -- 12-0! -- but were only ranked 10th by the playoff committee.  After a win in the Peach Bowl over 7th-ranked Auburn, the cries of injustice grew louder.  So loud, in fact, that they reached the delicate ears of Tim Tebow.  Tebow's response?

"There’s no question UCF [was overlooked].  But you need to go tell their president and athletic director to play a couple big-time teams in the regular season. You ask any analyst before they played Auburn and it would be really hard to justify them being in the top four with our eyes."

Tim has a point... the point being, an undefeated team that didn't beat anyone worth beating is not all that special.  More to the point, though: of the four teams that made the playoffs, which one would UCF beat?

Back in November, UCF gave up 42 points and over 600 yards in a win over USF.  What do you suppose Baker Mayfield and his Oklahoma offense would do against the Knight's defense?

So while the Knights were impressive in beating Auburn, that same Tigers team was manhandled themselves by Georgia in the SEC title game.  In fact, the Bulldogs literally ran over the Tigers with 238 yards rushing.  And let's not forget the Georgia defense: they held Auburn to only 259 yards of offense compared to the 400+ yards the Tigers gained in the Peach Bowl.

Over in the other bracket sits Alabama.  I'll just let you digest what the Crimson Tide did to the former #1-ranked, defending champion Clemson. While their 24-6 throttling may have lacked a degree of excitement, the Tide's methodical offense and staunch defense left Clemson with only 188 yards of offense.

What about UCF beating Clemson, you say?  After all, Auburn had beaten both Alabama and Georgia -- the two teams that will play for the national title -- and UCF knocked off Auburn.  Transitive Property anyone?

But even if we agree that Clemson looked like the most vulnerable team among the final four, that doesn't mean UCF was ever in any position to overtake them in the rankings.  This Clemson team was at or near the top of the rankings for most of the season.  While that doesn't mean anything on the field of play, it means a lot when it comes to picking who belongs in the college football playoffs.

Maybe UCF puts a Power 5 team on their schedule next time.  Maybe they even beat them.  Until then, they'll have to settle for calling themselves the national champions.