The Bronx Bummers

Bill Parcells once famously said that you are what your record says you are. So while the Yankees talk constantly about their "championship caliber roster", their record very much says otherwise. Following another humiliating defeat at the hands of the Chicago White Sox, the Yankees sit in last place in the A.L. East and 5 games out of the final Wildcard slot.

Their record sits at 59-56, on a pace for a lowly 83 wins. Should that happen, it would be New York's lowest full-season win total since 1992. Optimistic fans would say that this team can turn it around, that the '23 Yanks haven't played their best baseball. But a deeper dive into the numbers is even more bleak. 

While the Yankees have played considerably better at home this season (.555 at Yankee Stadium, .461 on the road, pretty standard in MLB), they unfortunately play 29 of their final 47 games away from home. If the Yanks more or less match their season-long splits, the math says they'll go 23-24 the rest of the way. Add it all up, and the 2023 Yankees would finish 82-80.

That may sound terrible, and it is, but it's not surprising when you look at this team with an even longer lens. Over their last 200 games played, the Yankees are a pedestrian 100-100. They are what their record says they are.

Fly the Frugal Skies

Economy-class Billionaire

Every so often, you come across a story that is both entirely meaningless and maddeningly stupid. News that the Yankees do not pay for in-flight Wi-Fi on the team's plane is one of those stories. 

On one hand, this was not an anonymous leak by a disgruntled player so I doubt anyone is really broken up about it. A bunch of multi-millionaires can certainly afford $9 per flight to post selfies on Instagram. 

On the other hand, SERIOUSLY YANKEES?

Reportedly, an in-flight Wi-Fi plan costs approximately $40,000 per year for the team. Let's put that cost into some ludicrous perspective:

• The Yankees' payroll in 2023 is expected to be $272 million
• $40,000 would add a bit more than 1/100 of 1% to that total (0.0147%)
• Forbes estimates the value of the Yankees franchise at $6 billion, with annual revenues of $482 million
• $40,000 is a bit less than 1/100 of 1% of that annual total (0.0083%)
• It would cost someone earning $100,000 the equivalent of $8.30 to pay for Wi-Fi annually
• A single season ticket on the Field MVP level (lower tier, wrapping around home plate) costs up to $18,079
• Aaron Judge's new contract pays him approximately $246,000 per game, or around $27,000 per inning

Remember, these are not casual flyers. Between all the road trips to the West coast and everywhere in between, the Yankees spend a lot of time in the air over the course of a season. It's not the end of the world, but not springing for Wi-Fi on the team's plane seems like an incredible oversight at best, and a really cheap move at worst. When viewed against their massive team revenues, it would almost literally cost them nothing.

Naturally, GM Brian Cashman had to chime in with the obviously true but still tone-deaf sentiment: "I think most of our players can afford it."

Of Streaks and Swoons

No team in baseball had a better start to the 2022 season than the New York Yankees. In fact, after going 22-6 in June -- an amazing .786 winning percentage -- the Yanks' record stood at 56-21. Talk then turned to history: at that pace, a team that played .727 baseball would be projected to finish with 117 wins, the most ever in baseball. What a difference a few weeks make.

This past weekend, the Yankees were swept in a series for the first time this season, losing all 3 games to the St. Louis Cardinals. But that was only the icing on a very bad cake. In a stark contrast to their electric start, the Yankees have limped through the opening weeks of the 2nd half. Over the past 30 games, the Yankees are a woeful 12-18, including their first 5-game losing streak.

So what does this all mean? As the expression goes, "You're never as good as you look when you're winning, and you're never as bad as you look when you're losing." The 2022 Yankees, therefore, aren't going to win 117 games, but they're not likely to finish .500 either. 

Thanks to their historic start, the Yankees are still a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Their hold on the best record in the league, though, is tenuous. Fortunately for the Yanks, Houston has been scuffling, too. Otherwise the Astros would have passed the Yankees already. All that said, it doesn't seem like it's time to panic, but context is quite important here.

Say that instead of winning 56 games by July, the Yankees started the first 30 games of the season the way they've played of late. At 12-18 on May 4, that would have been good enough for 4th place in the A.L. East. Very few people would figure that team to win 22 games in a calendar month. 

The case could be made that the Yankees' current swoon impacted their moves at the trade deadline more than their hot start. They reinforced the lineup with Andrew Benintendi, and the rotation with Frankie Montas, both newly-apparent areas of need. Unfortunately, both players have blended seamlessly with their now cold-as-ice teammates. Benintendi is an abysmal 4-30 since donning pinstripes, while Montas got bombed in his first start for New York.

Where do they go from here? A trip to Seattle is up next, where the Yanks will face the one who got away, Luis Castillo. And though the Red Sox have been lost all season, one can imagine how they would relish playing the role of spoiler in a weekend series at Fenway. 

Beyond that, though, could be the stretch that defines the entire season: 9 straight games against the Rays, Blue Jays and Mets, all teams currently in playoff position. If the Yankees can't right the ship by then, even a division lead could be in jeopardy. It remains to be seen which Yankees team will show up over the next few weeks. 

Dispatches from the Trade Deadline

To Live and Die in L.A.

To no one's surprise, Joey Gallo was finally put out of his misery and traded by the Yankees. A certified disaster in pinstripes, Gallo likely had no shortage of fans willing to drive him to the airport, lest he miss his flight to Los Angeles. But before we pull the plug entirely on Gallo, there may be a ray of hope waiting for him in Chavez Ravine.

Let's turn our attention to another big-ticket slugger whose career had seemingly come to an end last season: Albert Pujols. Waived by the Angels in May after a rocky tenure in Anaheim, Pujols quickly latched on with L.A.'s marquee residents, the Dodgers. Used strategically as a pinch-hitter and part-time starter, Pujols found new life. With the Dodgers, Pujols raised his average nearly 60 points and posted his best OPS since the early days in Anaheim. 

Certainly Gallo wouldn't face the pressure he did in New York. If used in a similar fashion as Pujols, could Gallo rebound into a passable major league hitter? Or even regain his form as a fearsome slugger? The Dodgers would like to think that.

Rock Chalk, Yankees

The MLB Trade Deadline is its own cottage industry, as every pundit churns out a constant stream of potential trades and hot gossip. With so much content generated, there is bound to be overlap, and thereby, consensus. This year, the chalk said that the Yanks needed help in the outfield and in the starting rotation. Andrew Benintendi was the agreed upon bat, while Luis Castillo was the most coveted arm. Once Castillo was off the board, though, all Twitter fingers pointed to Frankie Montas. What say you, Brian Cashman? "Done and done."

Both are solid deals and significant upgrades, even if everyone knew the trades were coming. There is nothing inherently wrong with making the pre-ordained trade. If everyone says it will happen, that's probably because there's a need to be filled. 

Last season, though, anyone with a passing interest in baseball and an internet connection had the aforementioned Gallo ticketed for the Bronx. They were right. And you saw how that turned out. 

But the Yankees also made a trade few saw coming: adding another left-handed bat in the form of Anthony Rizzo. He contributed far more down the stretch than Gallo, even if few pundits had predicted it.

All that is a way of saying that it's now up to the players to perform. Will Benintendi be a Gallo or a Rizzo? Under the bright lights of Broadway, will Montas remind us more of David Cone than Sonny Gray? The next few months will tell that story. It will also tell us if Cashman's moves were as smart as they were obvious.

The Theory of Relativity

Speaking of pundits, few had the Mariners on their list of suitors for Castillo. Once that deal was done, many wondered if Seattle had given up too much for the All-Star righty. But to me, trade value is largely relative. What one team feels is too much to pay for an elite starter might be worth it for another. Case in point: the Mariners. 

Owners of the longest playoff drought in baseball, the Mariners pushed all their chips to the center and bet big on Castillo. We all remember what deadline-day stars Verlander, Sabathia and Scherzer did, performing at an elite level and leading their new teams to the playoffs. If Castillo does the same for Seattle, a playoff appearance will mean much more to this team and their fans than whatever those prospects do in 3 or 4 years.

I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing

Is April 11th too early to start questioning the moves the Yankees made in the off-season? If not, is three games too soon to send mixed signals to a player who should be an integral part of your season? Does anyone really need a day off by Game 4?

While the Yankees were impressive over the weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the rival Red Sox, the opening week of the season provides no respite. Ahead of tonight's game against Toronto, manager Aaron Boone released the following lineup:

Worth noting are two items highlighted in red. The first has D.J. LeMahieu leading off, supplanting this weekend's lead-off hitter, Josh Donaldson. It was an interesting choice, using the power-hitting Donaldson as a lead-off batter. LeMahieu, on the other hand, has been used primarily as the #1 batter in the lineup so that makes sense. That said, does Donaldson need a day off already, against his former team, no less?

More puzzling, perhaps, is the insertion of utility-man Marwin Gonzalez at shortstop. Gonzalez played well in the spring, and certainly deserves an opportunity to play. Unfortunately, Gonzalez sees the field at the direct expense of the new Yankees shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa. 

Perhaps I'm reading into this too much, but a 3-game sample size is a bit small to be sending a vote of no-confidence to your (ostensibly) starting shortstop. Kiner-Falefa wasn't great against Boston, managing only a single hit in 11 at-bats. But that's hardly worth a trip to the bench in Week 1 of a very long baseball season.

Back to Donaldson. Day off or otherwise, with Donaldson out of the lineup, it underscores the very basic problem with the makeup of the 2022 Yankees: they have lots of guys at DH. Whether it's Stanton, an adventure in the outfield, or LeMahieu, a man without a position, or Donaldson, a 3B by trade but not necessarily in practice, Boone must play a daily game of musical chairs with his lineup. 

One vitally important note about that practice, that even the most novice fantasy baseball players can tell you: if you have a guy who isn't in the lineup every day, there's probably a better player somewhere else who could take his place. (I don't see Juan Soto sitting out too many games for Yadiel Hernandez.) While it affords Boone some flexibility to have super-subs like LeMaheiu and Gonzalez to deploy on a nightly basis, it also means that someone else is NOT going to play. On certain nights, with Stanton in the outfield, or with Kiner-Falefa out of the lineup, the Yankee defense may suffer. 

Baseball is great because over the course of 162 games, any and all conjectures will either be borne out or disproven. Statistics will ultimately write the story: games played, runs produced, games won. Yet even then, the post-season awaits those teams good enough to qualify. And as is often the case, a team built to withstand 162 games -- malleable lineups, with subs available up and down -- is not necessarily the team built to win a short playoff series. But we'll have to wait until October before we start complaining about that.

Simple Math

The 2021 baseball season is winding down, but the playoff races are heating up! As of this morning, the Yankees hold a 1/2-game lead on the Blue Jays for the second A.L. Wildcard. The Yanks are also 2 games behind the Red Sox, who would own the first Wildcard spot. The Yanks and Sox have 9 games left to play this season, while the Blue Jays have 10 on the schedule.

Who will win enough games to qualify for the post-season? Let's dig into the playoff math.

YANKEES

The Yankees play three games each against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays, the first two series on the road. The first thing that jumps out at you are the records: all three opponents are playoff contenders, well above .500 on the season. The optimist says that the Yankees have their fate in their hands: beat the teams ahead of you and move up in the standings. The realist looks at the head-to-head results and doesn't like what they show:

• 6-10 vs Boston
• 6-10 vs Toronto
• 7-9 vs Tampa Bay

Of the three teams fighting it out, New York has by far the toughest schedule.

BOSTON

Once they finish up with the Yankees at home, the Sox finish the season on the road... but against Baltimore and Washington. At 48-104, the Orioles have the worst record in baseball. Though the Nationals have played better of late, they aren't a very good team. They have also struggled mightily against .500 teams, going 29-56. It would be hard to see the Red Sox losing too many games past the Yankee series.

TORONTO

The Blue Jays will play 10 games, one more than the other two. Fortunately for them, they get the Twins four times, yet another cellar-dweller. The Jays will then face the Yankees and finish out the season at home against the aforementioned Orioles. Like Boston, the Jays don't face much competition beyond the Yankees for the rest of the way.

Like the saying goes, the games aren't played on paper. Anything can, and will, happen on the field. But you ignore the data at your peril. The Yankees are 19-29 against their remaining opponents. Boston and Toronto are a combined 45-22 against the teams they will face, including the Yankees. As had been said before, the baseball season is long enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The simple math says the Yankees will be watching the playoffs at home this October.

Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up?

Compared to all other sports, the baseball season is long. So long, in fact, that over 162 games, the season takes into account all the highs and lows, the streaks, and the slumps. The Yankees won 13 games in a row not long ago, then somehow pivoted into a 2-11 free-fall. Those 26 games taken as a whole work out to 15-11. A record of 15-11 doesn't sound all that special. But over an entire season, if a team won 15 of every 26 games they played, they'd finish with 93 wins. Cream rises, while the flukes usually sink.

The 2021 Yankees aren't a 93-win team. Of course, they're not really a 2-11 terrible team, either. The truth of the Yankees lies somewhere in between. Their record is akin to how they play: all-or-nothing, swing-and-miss but sometimes connect. Pitch well for a while, but maybe blow the lead, the save, or the game. I like to say they are “consistently inconsistent”.

In the end, they are the hallmark of the Brian Cashman era:

• Play well enough to appear competitive

• Win just enough to keep the stadium coffers full

• Do just enough to make it look like you know what you're doing

• Fail against better competition in the playoffs

• Repeat for 20 years

It remains to be seen what the Yankees will do over the final 21 games of the season. As of this morning, they would qualify for the 2nd Wildcard and a date with Boston at Fenway Park. But with another loss to the Mets and a Blue Jays win today, the Yanks would be out of a playoff spot.

Either scenario seems equally plausible. Less plausible is the idea that these Yankees will make a deep October push. The Sox, Jays and ultimately the Rays could be standing in their way. If that happens, if the Yankees make another early post-season exit, or fail to make it at all, will that be the final straw? Will Hal Steinbrenner channel his father in the name of winning? Will the Real Slim Shady please stand up?

Trader Brian

"Hello? Might I interest you
in some AA prospects?"

Questions surrounding the fate of the 2021 Yankees were answered resoundingly by General Manager Brian Cashman this week. A flurry of splashy trades ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline landed the Yankees on the back page. Going all-in on Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo signaled to the baseball world that these Yanks will be fighting to the finish.

If through all these moves, Cashman manages to assemble a playoff team, then kudos to him. At 53-48, sitting 3.5 games out of a Wildcard spot, no one thinks the Yankees are an October lock. Remaking a roster on the fly in mid-season would be quite an achievement.

On top of that, it doesn't appear that the Yankees overpaid to improve the team. Sure, it's possible that among the haul of players traded away is born another Buhner / Smoltz punchline. Even so, the current Yankees' team will be long disbanded before any one of those minor leaguers makes an impact at the major league level.

HOWEVER... before we start polishing up the Executive of the Year trophy, let's take a step back. Lost in all the excitement of Trader Brian's wheelin' and dealin' is this: Cashman is actively turning over the very same underachieving roster that HE created. The Yankees needed Gallo and Rizzo because the current lineup is unbalanced and sorely lacking left-handed power. If Clay Holmes is the answer in the bullpen, it's because Luis Cessa, Justin Wilson and the parade of arms already out there were not. Today's acquisition of Andrew Heaney speaks quite loudly, too: a pitcher with an ERA north of 5 isn't stepping into a rotation filled with aces. 

On paper, these trades seem great and will surely boost morale both on the field and in the seats. All indications are that the Yankees came away with major league fortifications while parting with only potential pieces of the future. Yet if all these flashy trades amount to an empty October without the playoffs, then someone needs to hold Cashman accountable for that. How much credit do you get for attempting to fix problems of your own making? These next two months should be Cashman's final exam. A failing grade should lead to his overdue exit.

Bull Market, Bear Market

Years ago, a fairly incompetent employee worked in the front office of the New York Yankees. George Costanza, repeatedly failing upward, somehow survived in the organization despite of his lack of accomplishments or any track record of success. (Sounds unfortunately familiar.) 

In addition to not knowing how to run a baseball franchise, George had little knowledge about the stock market. When asked about playing the market, in the midst of a lie, George noted that he's in all the markets: "Bull market, bear market, you name the market, I'm there."

In a roundabout way, that brings us to the 2021 edition of the New York Yankees and the impending MLB Trade Deadline. Throughout this up-and-down season, many have speculated whether the Yankees will be buyers or sellers by the end of July. Put another way, should Brian Cashman be bullish or bearish on this year's squad? 

From a purely mathematical standpoint -- and we all know how Cashman loves his analytics -- the Yankees are still alive for a spot in the playoffs. Though a division pennant is all but a pipe dream following this weekend's disastrous visit to Fenway Park, the Yanks sit only 3.5 games out of the 2nd Wildcard. While having to fight for the last Wildcard is falling wildly short of most pre-season predictions, the post-season is still within reach. Neither team currently in front -- Oakland nor Seattle -- is a complete team that one couldn't see fade as the season wears on. So what's a General Manager to do? 

Over the years, rightfully or wrongfully, Cashman has been reluctant to hit the "reset" button on the roster, whether in the off-season or at the deadline. The belief that New Yorkers won't settle for a non-contender may be true in the short term. Empty seats in September, not to mention an October without baseball, is a loss of revenue for the team. (Teams like Boston, however, have shown over the past two decades that stripping down a team and building it back stronger might be the best formula for long-term success.)

Unfortunately, there are too many holes on the current Yankees team to target any one area of need. Certainly the outfield has been thinned through injury and ineffectiveness. The bullpen, beleaguered of late, could use reinforcements. Even with Gerrit Cole and a rejuvenated Domingo German, there is still a need for a #3 or #4 starter in a post-season rotation. Any of the above could needs can be addressed without sacrificing top prospects or major league stars. A short-term rental typically costs less to acquire and can provide a boost, but will be off the books for next season.

With history as our guide, it seems unlikely that Cashman, or team ownership, will be willing to punt on 2021 while a playoff spot is still in reach. However, reinforcements for a Wildcard run should look decidedly different than a team poised to win it all now. (See San Diego's acquisition of Adam Frazier as an example of a team pushing all their chips into the center of the table.) 

We'll have our answers about the future of the '21 Yankees by the end of the month. (Perhaps we'll know even earlier if three games in Tampa play out like the trip to Boston.) What happens to the Yankees beyond that, and who will be making those decisions, could become more clear by the fall.

The Shot Heard 'Round the Bronx

It's been one day since the Yankees imploded against the Houston Astros, but the wounds are still fresh. By blowing a 5-run lead in the 9th inning, the Yanks suffered their worst loss of the season, if not in recent memory. That it came at the hands of the arch-rival Astros, and off the bat of their nemesis Jose Altuve, made it feel that much worse. But this game will have greater implications on the 2021 season than a single loss.

For one, the loss takes away the shine of winning the first two games of the series in impressive fashion. The Yanks shut out Houston's league-leading offense in back-to-back games, the first time that had happened in over 3 years. They also built a sizeable lead in Sunday's game before it all came crashing down. 

While it's easy to argue that the loss was an anomaly, and that a well-rested Chad Green shuts the door nearly every time, it is also easy to argue that a team on pace to win only 84 games is bound to suffer losses like this. The fact that Green was in the game at all speaks to the fact that manager Aaron Boone and the Yankees have lost a great deal of faith in their highly-paid closer, Aroldis Chapman.

That game also marked the symbolic end of the season's first half. New York slumps into the All-Star break with a 46-43 record, mired in 4th place in the A.L. East. Paradoxically, the Yankees' strong showing against Houston and Seattle belies their overall strength. Taking 4 of 6 games on this past road trip looks good on paper, and dampens the blow from Sunday's collapse.

What's worse, though, is that New York's recent success means it's harder to argue they should be sellers at the trade deadline. That could change, though, as after the break the Yankees will face Boston and Tampa Bay 11 times before the month is out. We will probably know all we need to know about the 2021 Yankees as the July 30th deadline approaches. Sunday's debacle just might be the game everyone talks about if the Yankees don't make a dramatic turnaround in the season's second half.

If It Walks Like a .500 Team...

Frustration in the Bronx

It's June 15th, and the Yankees sit in 4th place in the American League East with a record of 33-32. They are not playing well, having lost 13 of their last 18 games, including a brief, 2-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Despite all that, the Yankees haven't given up. At least not in the press:

"I don't think there's any getting used to freakin' losing." -- Aaron Boone

 "Really, the one thing we can do is focus on our work and our preparation, understanding we do have a lot of games ahead of us." -- Domingo German

"We’ve got quite a bit of season left. We do have a little bit of time left to figure that out." -- Brett Gardner 

The Yankees are saying the right things, but is there really "quite a bit of season left" to play? New York has played 65 games in 2021. That represents about 40% of the entire season. How late is too late to turn it around? To quote an old coach from another sport:

“You are what your record says you are.” -- Bill Parcells

And right now, the record says that the Yankees are a .500 team. If the season ended today, not only would the Yankees finish 9 games out in the East behind the Rays, but 4 games out of even the second Wildcard. Is this simply what the 2021 Yankees have to offer? 

In April, it was easy to write off the Yankees' slow start. Only 22 games into the season, there was still plenty of time to right the ship, for the silent bats to awaken. But here we are in June, and the same issues still plague the team: 27th in runs scored, 27th batting with RISP, grounding into the most rally-killing double-plays.

Ever reliant on the home run, even that has failed the team. Though the "Bronx Bombers" are tied for 13th in baseball in homers -- a marked improvement since April -- they are rarely game-changers. Of the 80 home runs the Yanks have hit, 54 of them were solo shots, the 4th-most with the bases empty. Somewhere, Earl Weaver is shaking his head.

Beyond the rah-rah, beyond the speeches and the promises to get grindin', lies a reality that the Yankees need to face: this team, as presently constituted, is not good enough. An over-abundance of strikeout prone, right-handed hitters has doomed the lineup. Injuries and inconsistencies have led to a decline on the mound. The Yankees were 5th in ERA in April, 6th in May. Thus far in June, the Yankees team ERA is 5.38, 22nd in baseball. 

The Yankees also fall on the wrong side of history. Since 1996, the first season with the Wild Card, 85 of the 144 teams that eventually won their division held at least a share of that division lead entering June 1st, nearly 60% of the time. Simply put, good teams that sit atop the division by mid-season tend to stay there. Conversely, there are probably many reasons why a 33-32 team doesn't suddenly climb the standings. Not that it can't happen, but logic tells us otherwise.

If the Yankees continue to slide and miss the playoffs in 2021, what happens next? Will Hal Steinbrenner finally be motivated to make a change in the front office? Will 12 years without a title be a long enough drought for a franchise that spends like a champion? It remains to be seen what happens the rest of the way, and perhaps over a long, cold off-season in the Bronx.

Don't Throw the Boone Out with the Bathwater

Much is being said about the terrible state of the Yankees in 2021, and rightfully so. After a loss to a middling Orioles team last night, the Yankees suffered the indignity of falling into last place in the A.L. East with a record of 9-13. The calendar says that it’s almost May, which by definition would be past the point of dismissing a slow start by saying "It’s only April." As Yogi Berra once said, "It gets late early out there."

While it's perfectly fine to get on the Yankees, I'm also hearing a lot of chatter about their manager, Aaron Boone. Yes, the same Aaron Boone who won 203 games in his first two seasons as the New York manager and has guided the Yankees to the postseason all three years he's been at the helm. Unfortunately for Boone, when a team is slumping as the Yanks are now, the manager is an easy target. But is he the right one?

Of the four major sports, a baseball manager probably has the least effect on a game's outcome. Cumulatively over a 162-game season, even a bad manager will only cost his team a few games versus a "true tactician" pulling the levers. Even the most maligned manager's decisions, typically involving a pitching change (or lack thereof), ultimately come down to whether the player executes or not. Second guessing may be a part of sports, but no manager ever puts a player into a situation where he doesn’t expect that player to succeed.

Bottom line: the players with the NY on their caps and bats in their hands are not getting the job done this season. The Yankees are ranked dead-last in MLB in batting average, a woeful .203 as a team. They are 27th in runs scored, and sport an anemic .650 OPS. Only the Detroit Tigers, who not coincidentally own the worst record in baseball, have had less success at the plate. By contrast, the surprising Red Sox lead the majors in OPS: the team's whopping .795 mark has certainly contributed to their 5th-best record in baseball and first place standing in the East. 

Another popular angle to attack Boone is his seemingly rigid reliance on analytics. Every move he makes, from his lineup to the pitching matchups or to defensive shifts, can be tied back to a mathematical model. Worse, from the average fan's standpoint, is the contention that Boone can't make a decision without checking upstairs first. 

Whether or not Boone is Brian Cashman's puppet is a different debate, but we can all agree that OF COURSE Boone shares Cashman's analytical outlook. That's why he was hired, and why Joe Girardi is managing in Philadelphia. Anyone who thinks that Boone's hypothetical replacement would not follow in lockstep with the Yankee GM is being foolish. (If you'd like to argue that Cashman shouldn't be the GM, well, I've got a lot of columns that support that premise.)

I'm not saying that Boone is the reincarnation of Casey Stengel, or that he doesn't sometimes leave us scratching our heads. It's just that as managers go, Aaron Boone is not the reason the Yankees are 9-13. The players in that lineup are not hitting. Reclamation pitching projects might pitch well for a few innings, but ultimately the bullpen will bear the brunt. To put it another way, don't blame the chef for your meal if the guy buying the groceries keeps shopping on the "Clearance" shelves.

Time Will Be Telling

In November of 2018 (which seems more like 20 years ago than just two), the Yankees acquired James Paxton from the Mariners in exchange for their top pitching prospect at the time, Justus Sheffield. On the face of it, the trade seemed like a good deal, if only because Paxton was a major-league starter, ready to contribute to a championship contender. Meanwhile, Sheffield was only a prospect, that glorious time when a player's value can only be calculated by an organization's imagination. 

At the time, I wrote that the trade could play out in one of three ways.  Last season, Paxton started slowly but finished strong, but the Yankees didn't win. Meanwhile, Sheffield didn't look good at all in 2019.  Scenario #2, a wash for both teams, played out in Year One.

Year Two, which also happens to be Paxton's last season under contract, is nearly in the books. Paxton took a step back, battling health issues and making only 5 mostly unimpressive starts. It remains to be seen if the Yankees will win a title this year. Less likely will be Paxton making a significant contribution to that title run.

Meanwhile, something funny happened in Seattle. The Mariners made an unexpected push towards the playoffs. Leading that charge was a dominant Justus Sheffield. In September, Sheffield won his last 4 starts, averaging over 6 innings per start without giving up more than 2 runs. While only a small sample in a short season, those are looking like "ace" numbers.

Although no one could fault Cashman at the time for making a move -- it's what General Managers are paid to do -- hindsight is always 20/20. As with any trade, its success or failure may not be known for years. (Ask the guys who traded away John Smoltz or Jay Buhner.) 

If the Yanks let Paxton walk after two seasons without a championship, his acquisition would be no more than a footnote had Sheffield continued to pitch as he had in 2019. But if Sheffield builds upon his 2020 breakout and continues his upward trajectory, this deal may not so easily fly under the radar anymore.

Striking Out

The Major League Baseball trade deadline has come and gone.  And with it, so, too, has the chance for the Yankees to fix the gaping holes in their starting rotation.  We've heard the excuses: the price was too high, our prospects are untouchable, we just got outbid.  That's all well and good, but a team that wants to get better -- NEEDS to get better -- either gets better or it doesn't.  The Yankees did not get better today.  Brian Cashman swung and missed.

To be fair, the Yankees are on a pace to win 104 games this season.  They have an 8-game lead in the AL East.  Outside of a remarkable collapse, this team is going to the playoffs.  But as we've seen year after year, playoff baseball is different.  Good pitching beats good hitting.  A team built around hitting 3 home runs a game, for whatever reason, doesn't hit them in October.  The Yankees needed a top-flight starter and didn't get him.

We're not inside Cashman's office. We don't know what other teams were asking in return for their pitchers.  But we do know what it looks like when a team goes all in:

• The Cubs parted with Gleyber Torres, who blossomed into an All-Star, in return for Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman closed it out as the Cubs won the World Series
• The Astros took a chance on Justin Verlander.  All he did was pitch Houston to a World Series title
•  And today, the Astros pushed their chips to the center of the table and came away with Zach Greinke.  They are now the favorites to win again

It's easy today to chastise Cashman for not making a move.  But the season isn't over.  The Yankees might somehow win the World Series and Cashman will look like a genius for hanging on to his prize prospects.

But there remains a very real possibility that the Yankees' flawed rotation pitches like they have over the past few weeks and the Yankees make an early exit.  Clint Frazier or Deivi Garcia are not going to help them in 2019.  Who knows what 2020 or beyond will hold?  Just ask the Nationals about the perils of misjudging a championship window.

Fortunately, it will be very easy to judge how Brian Cashman handled the trade deadline come October.  The Yankees should either be holding a World Series trophy, or interviews for their next GM.

Maybe Stanton Can Pitch?

This is my "I know it, you know it,
but what am I supposed to say?" face

With the non-waiver trade deadline approaching, baseball insiders have flooded us with impending trade rumors.  Some haven't panned out, but as an actual trade gets closer, the information becomes more reliable.  So it was with a grain of salt that I read the Yankees were making a push for Zach Britton, the Orioles closer.

A closer?  Did I miss the season-ending injury to Aroldis Chapman? No, okay, so another setup man?  Are the Yankees such a perfect machine that the only part that needed tinkering was to improve their bullpen from the left side?

Brian Cashman spent the off-season by trading for Giancarlo Stanton, to upgrade their already outstanding right-handed power-hitting and stacked outfield.  In other words, nice, but decidedly unnecessary.

Instead, the Yanks went to war with a rotation of Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery.  As we know, Montgomery was quickly injured, and his replacements pitched about as well as Sonny Gray.  With Tanaka on the DL for a stretch, Yankee starters were stretched thin.  Enter... Britton?

After the game, news of the deal reached the manager's office.  A bemused Aaron Boone had this to say of his club's most recent acquisition:

"Any time you can add to a strength, cover up a weakness or whatever, when you can add good players to your team, obviously that's a good thing."

Or, roughly translated, "Whatever this was, even though it doesn't actually address a need we have, it's not a bad thing.  Besides, I'm not going to sit here and second-guess my boss."

Meanwhile, the team with the best record in baseball and an already formidable starting rotation added another piece: the Red Sox traded for former Yankee Nate Eovaldi.  Now, I won't sit here and tell you that Eovaldi is that much better than Gray, since neither one has excelled in pinstripes.  Nor do I think that Eovaldi makes the Red Sox much better, though how much better can you be than on pace for 111 wins?

Acquiring Britton does not preclude the Yankees from getting that missing starter.  And a Britton-fortified bullpen is a better bullpen than it was yesterday.  But I don't think that this trade alone helps the Yankees catch Boston.  We'll see what the future holds in New York.

Aaron Boone's First Test

With an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, Aaron Boone was handed the reins for the 2018 New York Yankees.  As a first year manager, most expected Boone to go through some growing pains during his on-the-job training.  That's what Spring Training is for, after all.

Yet not three weeks into the young season, Boone's Yankees find themselves where they didn't think they'd be: at .500, 8-8, looking up in the standings at both the Red Sox (not surprisingly) and Blue Jays (unexpectedly).  George Steinbrenner is long gone, so there won't be any bombastic declarations emanating from the Bronx.  Boone's job is safe.  But that's not to say there isn't danger lurking.

Contributing to the Yanks' subpar start are the struggles of Giancarlo Stanton.  Adding the reigning NL MVP to the their already formidable lineup made the Yankees a popular choice for the World Series.  But Stanton has underperformed even the rest of his teammates.  He has been uncharacteristically bad in his first 16 games in the Bronx, batting just .197 while striking out 29 times, the most in the AL.

After last night's loss to the lowly Marlins, Boone was asked about Stanton.  The new manager expressed confidence in his scuffling slugger:

"He’ll get rolling here and eventually the league will pay for some of his early struggles."

But then Boone continued, saying that he'd consider dropping Stanton down in the lineup:

"I might flirt with splitting different guys up and stuff, but not moving him down too far.  Because he’s one at-bat away from getting locked back in, and then the last thing you want is him hitting down in the order and getting pitched around."

I'd argue that the last thing you want is to tell your $235 million MVP that you don't trust him to hit in the 3-hole right now.  This isn't some nervous rookie, a slumping Aaron Judge circa 2016, that you can move down to ease up the pressure.  By virtue of his résumé, and his contract, Stanton has no place to hide.  Batting him 5th or 6th won't likely change anything, except maybe make him press harder.  Imagine getting dropped in the lineup and still not hitting.  Yankee Stadium fans will be booing him before he steps into the box.

Playing with the lineup, shaking up the bullpen -- these are all rookie manager moves.  Veteran managers understand that the baseball season is long, and most times, these things work themselves out.  A former player like Boone should know that.  And he probably does, which makes the possibility of him dropping Stanton in the lineup all the more puzzling.

One last thing before I go.  Not that the stakes are as high, but the last time a manager decided to move a struggling slugger down in the lineup, it didn't work out well.  It's safe to say that the relationship between Joe Torre and Alex Rodriguez never recovered from that October move.  Making matters worse, it certainly didn't help that night.  Something Boone might want to keep in mind.

Wide Margin for Error

To paraphrase Shakespeare, I've come to praise Brian Cashman, not to bury him.  Okay, maybe "praise" isn't quite accurate, but this post will be a lot nicer to him than what I usually have to say.

When I first learned of the Giancarlo Stanton trade, I'll admit I had mixed feelings.  On the one hand, the Yankees just added the reigning National League MVP and barely gave up anything in return.  What a deal!  On the other hand, the Yankees did inherit the bulk of Stanton's gargantuan contract, 10 years and $220 million dollars-worth of it.  So much for getting under that Luxury Tax cap.

The other thing that left me scratching my head about this trade is the fact that the Yanks already have their own Stanton on the roster: his name is Aaron Judge, and he also plays right field.  So now the Yankees have two linebacker-sized, right-handed hitting sluggers who play right field.  Will one of them be the DH?  I don't know if Stanton is quite ready to give up his glove yet.  

Not only that, the second best hitter on the Yanks was, before this trade, Gary Sanchez.  As you might remember, Sanchez is a catcher, meaning he can't play every day behind the plate.  So if you want Sanchez to become your DH on days that he's not catching, then one of your right fielders doesn't play.  Unless you move one of your right fielders out of position and into left field... but then Brett Gardner doesn't play... unless you move Gardner back to center field, which means that Aaron Hicks doesn't play.  See what I mean?!?

All these machinations aside, it's a net positive to have Giancarlo Stanton in the Yankees' lineup (position TBD).  Which brings me back to my original point: Brian Cashman made a nice trade.  In fact, of all the things that a GM does, making trades is the thing Cashman does best.  (In fact, it may be the only thing he does well.  But no burying here.)

But take a closer look at this trade: the Yankees, with nearly unlimited resources, were able to wait out the Marlins until they had no choice but to trade Stanton for pennies on the dollar.  And there were a lot of dollars; so many dollars that most MLB teams couldn't afford it.  Does it take savvy baseball acumen to pay the most money?  Do you think other teams, even those on Stanton's wish list, could have given up a better package in return for Stanton if they were willing to take on as much salary as the Yankees did?  I'd sure think so.

Being able to stretch the budget also allows Cashman to indulge in his worst capacity as a GM: signing free agents to terrible contracts.  What other teams in baseball, save maybe the Dodgers, could afford to sit Jacoby "The Albatross" Ellsbury for most of the season?  Or resign Aroldis Chapman for more money than any closer has ever been given, only to see him lose the closer role for a stretch.  Throw in the gaudy contracts handed to the pedestrian Chase Headley or the long-term yokes of C.C. Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez that had plagued the Yanks in the past, and you get a sense of just how much leeway Cashman really has. 

Yes, Cashman makes some nice trades.  But a lot of those trades are made to paper over the terrible signings that otherwise hold the Yankees back.  Just don't get me started on how he treats his managers...

Little Things Mean A Lot

A lack of splashy trades or free-agent signings have left the 2017 Yankees with a solid if unspectacular lineup and a core of youngsters waiting in the wings.  It's those two notions -- low expectations and bright future -- that made the following stand out to me.  Tucked inside the "Inside Pitch" section of an article on Masahiro Tanaka's excellent spring was this head-scratcher:

The remaining jobs to be decided: AARON HICKS or AARON JUDGE in right field

Come again?  Is that referring to the same Aaron Hicks who hit .217 last season?  The Aaron Hicks who has hit under .220 in three of his four major league seasons?  That guy is in a job competition?  With who?

Aaron Judge!  Wasn't Aaron Judge the much-touted Baby Bomber who made his 2016 debut by knocking one out in his first trip to the plate?  And then followed that up with extra-base hits in the next two games, as well?

Maybe Joe Girardi was just trying to make things interesting.  Perhaps giving Hicks a boost that will keep him focused as the 4th outfielder this season.  Nope.  The next day, Joe was back at it:

AARON JUDGE went 2 for 3, AARON HICKS was 1 for 2 with a walk, and each drove in a run in Thursday’s 5-5 tie as their competition in right field continued. “We’re going to let it go to the wire,” JOE GIRARDI said.

Okay, sure, after that amazing start, Judge started to struggle and looked like Pedro Cerrano.  But isn't that what rookies do?  Shouldn't we give Judge that opportunity to figure out his swing?  How is he going to learn to recognize a curveball from the bench?

If we accept the premise that the 2017 season will not end with a championship, and that 2018 and beyond could be something special, then why are we wasting time with Aaron Hicks?  At best, Hicks is a marginal offensive player with a great glove and arm.  If that doesn't scream "4th Outfielder", I don't know what does.  Meanwhile, Judge has the potential -- yes, potential -- to be a great power hitter.  Let the big kid play.

Not that Chris Carter

In news that barely registers as news, the Yankees signed DH Chris Carter to a 1-year deal for $3.5 million.  This probably wouldn’t merit much consideration in a normal off-season, but this has hardly been a typical off-season for the Yankees.  Other than bringing back Aroldis Chapman for too many years and too much money and signing Matt Holliday for too much money but only for one season, the Yanks have been pretty quiet.

When I first saw reports of the Carter signing, and adjusted to the fact that this Chris Carter is neither the former NFL receiver nor the creator of The X-Files, I looked him up.  Led the NL in home runs last year.  Good.  Led the NL in strikeouts last year.  Not so much.  At first, I figured this was a low-risk, low-impact move.  But then I took a closer look.

Putting Carter under the microscope did not improve the situation.  While the 41 homers last year are impressive, the 206 strikeouts are a liability. Remarkably, Carter has actually led both the AL and NL in strikeouts in his career, and his highest season batting average was only .239, a season in which he only played in 67 games. This guy looks like the reincarnation of Rob Deer.

I'm also not thrilled that he's a right-handed hitter.  The Yankees will play half their games in Yankee Stadium, a lefty hitter's paradise.  In case you were wondering, though, Carter does not avail himself of all fields.  A spray chart of his home runs from last season shows just that:

Notice that Carter didn't hit a single homer beyond right-center field.  It appears that his swing is not ideally suited for the stadium's short porch.  Though he has tremendous power, Carter may also see a number of homers from last year turn into very long outs in the stadium's cavernous left-center field.

The best-case scenario is that Carter may turn out to be a good pinch-hitter.  Late in games, I guess, swinging for the seats is probably justified. It would be silly to expect much from him.  After all, there must have been a reason why the Brewers -- 12th in the NL in runs scored last year -- didn't offer him a contract. League leaders in home runs don't contemplate playing in Japan unless there are also some holes in his game.

Adventures of a Blind Squirrel

Brian Cashman has been busy. A flurry of deals before the MLB Trade Deadline has left heads spinning in Yankee-land just trying to keep up with all the comings and goings. Much praise has been heaped upon Cashman for his haul of prospects, and rightfully so.

So while I've never been shy to criticize Cashman in this space, this won't be a Bash-Cashman piece. Give the man credit for taking a bunch of mismatched parts and turning them into pieces to build a foundation for the future.

However... I did find it interesting that in his post-deadline press conference, Cashman had this to say about the 2016 Yankees. Talking about a team that was swept by the last-place Tampa Bay Rays after a stretch of good play:

A true playoff contender, you know, not a playoff pretender, wouldn't do that.

Sure, Brian, that's true. It's also what most Yankee fans have been saying about this team all season long. Nice of you to come around.

It's also an interesting choice of words to describe a TEAM THAT YOU PUT TOGETHER. One thing that always frustrates me about media coverage of Cashman is that he somehow seems to get the credit for all the things he does well but never seems to get blamed for the mistakes he often makes. I'm not sure who Cashman thinks brought all these pretenders together, but he sure was glad to see them go.

An under-performing middle of the lineup? I don't suppose it was Cashman who signed Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Oh, right, it was. Nor was it Cashman who benefited from their unlikely success in 2015 and did absolutely nothing to bolster the offense should they not reach their 2015 levels. Wait, right, that was Cashman, too.

Were it not for the resurrection of Carlos Beltran -- a player who has put up better numbers through July than he did in full seasons in 2014 and '15 -- the Yankees offense might be the worst in baseball. (Even with Beltran, the Yanks were 24th in MLB in runs and 29th in extra-base hits.) That Cashman was able to flip the free-agent-to-be for a top pitching prospect is as much luck as skill.

Though the Yankees have raised the white flag on 2016, no one will miss Chapman, Miller, Beltran or Nova -- not, at least, as far as wins and losses are concerned.  However, it will be some years before we know how successful this deadline swap session has been. Prospects, even elite ones, often take time to develop into solid major leaguers. The 2016 Yankees might be worse off, but by most measures the 2017 Yankees and beyond have taken the first steps towards improvement.

Time will tell if this particular squirrel has stashed away enough nuts for a snowy winter ahead.