Bull Market, Bear Market

Years ago, a fairly incompetent employee worked in the front office of the New York Yankees. George Costanza, repeatedly failing upward, somehow survived in the organization despite of his lack of accomplishments or any track record of success. (Sounds unfortunately familiar.) 

In addition to not knowing how to run a baseball franchise, George had little knowledge about the stock market. When asked about playing the market, in the midst of a lie, George noted that he's in all the markets: "Bull market, bear market, you name the market, I'm there."

In a roundabout way, that brings us to the 2021 edition of the New York Yankees and the impending MLB Trade Deadline. Throughout this up-and-down season, many have speculated whether the Yankees will be buyers or sellers by the end of July. Put another way, should Brian Cashman be bullish or bearish on this year's squad? 

From a purely mathematical standpoint -- and we all know how Cashman loves his analytics -- the Yankees are still alive for a spot in the playoffs. Though a division pennant is all but a pipe dream following this weekend's disastrous visit to Fenway Park, the Yanks sit only 3.5 games out of the 2nd Wildcard. While having to fight for the last Wildcard is falling wildly short of most pre-season predictions, the post-season is still within reach. Neither team currently in front -- Oakland nor Seattle -- is a complete team that one couldn't see fade as the season wears on. So what's a General Manager to do? 

Over the years, rightfully or wrongfully, Cashman has been reluctant to hit the "reset" button on the roster, whether in the off-season or at the deadline. The belief that New Yorkers won't settle for a non-contender may be true in the short term. Empty seats in September, not to mention an October without baseball, is a loss of revenue for the team. (Teams like Boston, however, have shown over the past two decades that stripping down a team and building it back stronger might be the best formula for long-term success.)

Unfortunately, there are too many holes on the current Yankees team to target any one area of need. Certainly the outfield has been thinned through injury and ineffectiveness. The bullpen, beleaguered of late, could use reinforcements. Even with Gerrit Cole and a rejuvenated Domingo German, there is still a need for a #3 or #4 starter in a post-season rotation. Any of the above could needs can be addressed without sacrificing top prospects or major league stars. A short-term rental typically costs less to acquire and can provide a boost, but will be off the books for next season.

With history as our guide, it seems unlikely that Cashman, or team ownership, will be willing to punt on 2021 while a playoff spot is still in reach. However, reinforcements for a Wildcard run should look decidedly different than a team poised to win it all now. (See San Diego's acquisition of Adam Frazier as an example of a team pushing all their chips into the center of the table.) 

We'll have our answers about the future of the '21 Yankees by the end of the month. (Perhaps we'll know even earlier if three games in Tampa play out like the trip to Boston.) What happens to the Yankees beyond that, and who will be making those decisions, could become more clear by the fall.