I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing

Is April 11th too early to start questioning the moves the Yankees made in the off-season? If not, is three games too soon to send mixed signals to a player who should be an integral part of your season? Does anyone really need a day off by Game 4?

While the Yankees were impressive over the weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the rival Red Sox, the opening week of the season provides no respite. Ahead of tonight's game against Toronto, manager Aaron Boone released the following lineup:

Worth noting are two items highlighted in red. The first has D.J. LeMahieu leading off, supplanting this weekend's lead-off hitter, Josh Donaldson. It was an interesting choice, using the power-hitting Donaldson as a lead-off batter. LeMahieu, on the other hand, has been used primarily as the #1 batter in the lineup so that makes sense. That said, does Donaldson need a day off already, against his former team, no less?

More puzzling, perhaps, is the insertion of utility-man Marwin Gonzalez at shortstop. Gonzalez played well in the spring, and certainly deserves an opportunity to play. Unfortunately, Gonzalez sees the field at the direct expense of the new Yankees shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa. 

Perhaps I'm reading into this too much, but a 3-game sample size is a bit small to be sending a vote of no-confidence to your (ostensibly) starting shortstop. Kiner-Falefa wasn't great against Boston, managing only a single hit in 11 at-bats. But that's hardly worth a trip to the bench in Week 1 of a very long baseball season.

Back to Donaldson. Day off or otherwise, with Donaldson out of the lineup, it underscores the very basic problem with the makeup of the 2022 Yankees: they have lots of guys at DH. Whether it's Stanton, an adventure in the outfield, or LeMahieu, a man without a position, or Donaldson, a 3B by trade but not necessarily in practice, Boone must play a daily game of musical chairs with his lineup. 

One vitally important note about that practice, that even the most novice fantasy baseball players can tell you: if you have a guy who isn't in the lineup every day, there's probably a better player somewhere else who could take his place. (I don't see Juan Soto sitting out too many games for Yadiel Hernandez.) While it affords Boone some flexibility to have super-subs like LeMaheiu and Gonzalez to deploy on a nightly basis, it also means that someone else is NOT going to play. On certain nights, with Stanton in the outfield, or with Kiner-Falefa out of the lineup, the Yankee defense may suffer. 

Baseball is great because over the course of 162 games, any and all conjectures will either be borne out or disproven. Statistics will ultimately write the story: games played, runs produced, games won. Yet even then, the post-season awaits those teams good enough to qualify. And as is often the case, a team built to withstand 162 games -- malleable lineups, with subs available up and down -- is not necessarily the team built to win a short playoff series. But we'll have to wait until October before we start complaining about that.

The Shot Heard 'Round the Bronx

It's been one day since the Yankees imploded against the Houston Astros, but the wounds are still fresh. By blowing a 5-run lead in the 9th inning, the Yanks suffered their worst loss of the season, if not in recent memory. That it came at the hands of the arch-rival Astros, and off the bat of their nemesis Jose Altuve, made it feel that much worse. But this game will have greater implications on the 2021 season than a single loss.

For one, the loss takes away the shine of winning the first two games of the series in impressive fashion. The Yanks shut out Houston's league-leading offense in back-to-back games, the first time that had happened in over 3 years. They also built a sizeable lead in Sunday's game before it all came crashing down. 

While it's easy to argue that the loss was an anomaly, and that a well-rested Chad Green shuts the door nearly every time, it is also easy to argue that a team on pace to win only 84 games is bound to suffer losses like this. The fact that Green was in the game at all speaks to the fact that manager Aaron Boone and the Yankees have lost a great deal of faith in their highly-paid closer, Aroldis Chapman.

That game also marked the symbolic end of the season's first half. New York slumps into the All-Star break with a 46-43 record, mired in 4th place in the A.L. East. Paradoxically, the Yankees' strong showing against Houston and Seattle belies their overall strength. Taking 4 of 6 games on this past road trip looks good on paper, and dampens the blow from Sunday's collapse.

What's worse, though, is that New York's recent success means it's harder to argue they should be sellers at the trade deadline. That could change, though, as after the break the Yankees will face Boston and Tampa Bay 11 times before the month is out. We will probably know all we need to know about the 2021 Yankees as the July 30th deadline approaches. Sunday's debacle just might be the game everyone talks about if the Yankees don't make a dramatic turnaround in the season's second half.

If It Walks Like a .500 Team...

Frustration in the Bronx

It's June 15th, and the Yankees sit in 4th place in the American League East with a record of 33-32. They are not playing well, having lost 13 of their last 18 games, including a brief, 2-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Despite all that, the Yankees haven't given up. At least not in the press:

"I don't think there's any getting used to freakin' losing." -- Aaron Boone

 "Really, the one thing we can do is focus on our work and our preparation, understanding we do have a lot of games ahead of us." -- Domingo German

"We’ve got quite a bit of season left. We do have a little bit of time left to figure that out." -- Brett Gardner 

The Yankees are saying the right things, but is there really "quite a bit of season left" to play? New York has played 65 games in 2021. That represents about 40% of the entire season. How late is too late to turn it around? To quote an old coach from another sport:

“You are what your record says you are.” -- Bill Parcells

And right now, the record says that the Yankees are a .500 team. If the season ended today, not only would the Yankees finish 9 games out in the East behind the Rays, but 4 games out of even the second Wildcard. Is this simply what the 2021 Yankees have to offer? 

In April, it was easy to write off the Yankees' slow start. Only 22 games into the season, there was still plenty of time to right the ship, for the silent bats to awaken. But here we are in June, and the same issues still plague the team: 27th in runs scored, 27th batting with RISP, grounding into the most rally-killing double-plays.

Ever reliant on the home run, even that has failed the team. Though the "Bronx Bombers" are tied for 13th in baseball in homers -- a marked improvement since April -- they are rarely game-changers. Of the 80 home runs the Yanks have hit, 54 of them were solo shots, the 4th-most with the bases empty. Somewhere, Earl Weaver is shaking his head.

Beyond the rah-rah, beyond the speeches and the promises to get grindin', lies a reality that the Yankees need to face: this team, as presently constituted, is not good enough. An over-abundance of strikeout prone, right-handed hitters has doomed the lineup. Injuries and inconsistencies have led to a decline on the mound. The Yankees were 5th in ERA in April, 6th in May. Thus far in June, the Yankees team ERA is 5.38, 22nd in baseball. 

The Yankees also fall on the wrong side of history. Since 1996, the first season with the Wild Card, 85 of the 144 teams that eventually won their division held at least a share of that division lead entering June 1st, nearly 60% of the time. Simply put, good teams that sit atop the division by mid-season tend to stay there. Conversely, there are probably many reasons why a 33-32 team doesn't suddenly climb the standings. Not that it can't happen, but logic tells us otherwise.

If the Yankees continue to slide and miss the playoffs in 2021, what happens next? Will Hal Steinbrenner finally be motivated to make a change in the front office? Will 12 years without a title be a long enough drought for a franchise that spends like a champion? It remains to be seen what happens the rest of the way, and perhaps over a long, cold off-season in the Bronx.

Don't Throw the Boone Out with the Bathwater

Much is being said about the terrible state of the Yankees in 2021, and rightfully so. After a loss to a middling Orioles team last night, the Yankees suffered the indignity of falling into last place in the A.L. East with a record of 9-13. The calendar says that it’s almost May, which by definition would be past the point of dismissing a slow start by saying "It’s only April." As Yogi Berra once said, "It gets late early out there."

While it's perfectly fine to get on the Yankees, I'm also hearing a lot of chatter about their manager, Aaron Boone. Yes, the same Aaron Boone who won 203 games in his first two seasons as the New York manager and has guided the Yankees to the postseason all three years he's been at the helm. Unfortunately for Boone, when a team is slumping as the Yanks are now, the manager is an easy target. But is he the right one?

Of the four major sports, a baseball manager probably has the least effect on a game's outcome. Cumulatively over a 162-game season, even a bad manager will only cost his team a few games versus a "true tactician" pulling the levers. Even the most maligned manager's decisions, typically involving a pitching change (or lack thereof), ultimately come down to whether the player executes or not. Second guessing may be a part of sports, but no manager ever puts a player into a situation where he doesn’t expect that player to succeed.

Bottom line: the players with the NY on their caps and bats in their hands are not getting the job done this season. The Yankees are ranked dead-last in MLB in batting average, a woeful .203 as a team. They are 27th in runs scored, and sport an anemic .650 OPS. Only the Detroit Tigers, who not coincidentally own the worst record in baseball, have had less success at the plate. By contrast, the surprising Red Sox lead the majors in OPS: the team's whopping .795 mark has certainly contributed to their 5th-best record in baseball and first place standing in the East. 

Another popular angle to attack Boone is his seemingly rigid reliance on analytics. Every move he makes, from his lineup to the pitching matchups or to defensive shifts, can be tied back to a mathematical model. Worse, from the average fan's standpoint, is the contention that Boone can't make a decision without checking upstairs first. 

Whether or not Boone is Brian Cashman's puppet is a different debate, but we can all agree that OF COURSE Boone shares Cashman's analytical outlook. That's why he was hired, and why Joe Girardi is managing in Philadelphia. Anyone who thinks that Boone's hypothetical replacement would not follow in lockstep with the Yankee GM is being foolish. (If you'd like to argue that Cashman shouldn't be the GM, well, I've got a lot of columns that support that premise.)

I'm not saying that Boone is the reincarnation of Casey Stengel, or that he doesn't sometimes leave us scratching our heads. It's just that as managers go, Aaron Boone is not the reason the Yankees are 9-13. The players in that lineup are not hitting. Reclamation pitching projects might pitch well for a few innings, but ultimately the bullpen will bear the brunt. To put it another way, don't blame the chef for your meal if the guy buying the groceries keeps shopping on the "Clearance" shelves.

Maybe Stanton Can Pitch?

This is my "I know it, you know it,
but what am I supposed to say?" face

With the non-waiver trade deadline approaching, baseball insiders have flooded us with impending trade rumors.  Some haven't panned out, but as an actual trade gets closer, the information becomes more reliable.  So it was with a grain of salt that I read the Yankees were making a push for Zach Britton, the Orioles closer.

A closer?  Did I miss the season-ending injury to Aroldis Chapman? No, okay, so another setup man?  Are the Yankees such a perfect machine that the only part that needed tinkering was to improve their bullpen from the left side?

Brian Cashman spent the off-season by trading for Giancarlo Stanton, to upgrade their already outstanding right-handed power-hitting and stacked outfield.  In other words, nice, but decidedly unnecessary.

Instead, the Yanks went to war with a rotation of Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery.  As we know, Montgomery was quickly injured, and his replacements pitched about as well as Sonny Gray.  With Tanaka on the DL for a stretch, Yankee starters were stretched thin.  Enter... Britton?

After the game, news of the deal reached the manager's office.  A bemused Aaron Boone had this to say of his club's most recent acquisition:

"Any time you can add to a strength, cover up a weakness or whatever, when you can add good players to your team, obviously that's a good thing."

Or, roughly translated, "Whatever this was, even though it doesn't actually address a need we have, it's not a bad thing.  Besides, I'm not going to sit here and second-guess my boss."

Meanwhile, the team with the best record in baseball and an already formidable starting rotation added another piece: the Red Sox traded for former Yankee Nate Eovaldi.  Now, I won't sit here and tell you that Eovaldi is that much better than Gray, since neither one has excelled in pinstripes.  Nor do I think that Eovaldi makes the Red Sox much better, though how much better can you be than on pace for 111 wins?

Acquiring Britton does not preclude the Yankees from getting that missing starter.  And a Britton-fortified bullpen is a better bullpen than it was yesterday.  But I don't think that this trade alone helps the Yankees catch Boston.  We'll see what the future holds in New York.

Aaron Boone's First Test

With an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, Aaron Boone was handed the reins for the 2018 New York Yankees.  As a first year manager, most expected Boone to go through some growing pains during his on-the-job training.  That's what Spring Training is for, after all.

Yet not three weeks into the young season, Boone's Yankees find themselves where they didn't think they'd be: at .500, 8-8, looking up in the standings at both the Red Sox (not surprisingly) and Blue Jays (unexpectedly).  George Steinbrenner is long gone, so there won't be any bombastic declarations emanating from the Bronx.  Boone's job is safe.  But that's not to say there isn't danger lurking.

Contributing to the Yanks' subpar start are the struggles of Giancarlo Stanton.  Adding the reigning NL MVP to the their already formidable lineup made the Yankees a popular choice for the World Series.  But Stanton has underperformed even the rest of his teammates.  He has been uncharacteristically bad in his first 16 games in the Bronx, batting just .197 while striking out 29 times, the most in the AL.

After last night's loss to the lowly Marlins, Boone was asked about Stanton.  The new manager expressed confidence in his scuffling slugger:

"He’ll get rolling here and eventually the league will pay for some of his early struggles."

But then Boone continued, saying that he'd consider dropping Stanton down in the lineup:

"I might flirt with splitting different guys up and stuff, but not moving him down too far.  Because he’s one at-bat away from getting locked back in, and then the last thing you want is him hitting down in the order and getting pitched around."

I'd argue that the last thing you want is to tell your $235 million MVP that you don't trust him to hit in the 3-hole right now.  This isn't some nervous rookie, a slumping Aaron Judge circa 2016, that you can move down to ease up the pressure.  By virtue of his résumé, and his contract, Stanton has no place to hide.  Batting him 5th or 6th won't likely change anything, except maybe make him press harder.  Imagine getting dropped in the lineup and still not hitting.  Yankee Stadium fans will be booing him before he steps into the box.

Playing with the lineup, shaking up the bullpen -- these are all rookie manager moves.  Veteran managers understand that the baseball season is long, and most times, these things work themselves out.  A former player like Boone should know that.  And he probably does, which makes the possibility of him dropping Stanton in the lineup all the more puzzling.

One last thing before I go.  Not that the stakes are as high, but the last time a manager decided to move a struggling slugger down in the lineup, it didn't work out well.  It's safe to say that the relationship between Joe Torre and Alex Rodriguez never recovered from that October move.  Making matters worse, it certainly didn't help that night.  Something Boone might want to keep in mind.