Simple Math

The 2021 baseball season is winding down, but the playoff races are heating up! As of this morning, the Yankees hold a 1/2-game lead on the Blue Jays for the second A.L. Wildcard. The Yanks are also 2 games behind the Red Sox, who would own the first Wildcard spot. The Yanks and Sox have 9 games left to play this season, while the Blue Jays have 10 on the schedule.

Who will win enough games to qualify for the post-season? Let's dig into the playoff math.

YANKEES

The Yankees play three games each against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays, the first two series on the road. The first thing that jumps out at you are the records: all three opponents are playoff contenders, well above .500 on the season. The optimist says that the Yankees have their fate in their hands: beat the teams ahead of you and move up in the standings. The realist looks at the head-to-head results and doesn't like what they show:

• 6-10 vs Boston
• 6-10 vs Toronto
• 7-9 vs Tampa Bay

Of the three teams fighting it out, New York has by far the toughest schedule.

BOSTON

Once they finish up with the Yankees at home, the Sox finish the season on the road... but against Baltimore and Washington. At 48-104, the Orioles have the worst record in baseball. Though the Nationals have played better of late, they aren't a very good team. They have also struggled mightily against .500 teams, going 29-56. It would be hard to see the Red Sox losing too many games past the Yankee series.

TORONTO

The Blue Jays will play 10 games, one more than the other two. Fortunately for them, they get the Twins four times, yet another cellar-dweller. The Jays will then face the Yankees and finish out the season at home against the aforementioned Orioles. Like Boston, the Jays don't face much competition beyond the Yankees for the rest of the way.

Like the saying goes, the games aren't played on paper. Anything can, and will, happen on the field. But you ignore the data at your peril. The Yankees are 19-29 against their remaining opponents. Boston and Toronto are a combined 45-22 against the teams they will face, including the Yankees. As had been said before, the baseball season is long enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The simple math says the Yankees will be watching the playoffs at home this October.

Cheaters Never Prosper?

The fallout from the Astros' cheating scandal continues to reverberate around baseball. Immediately following MLB's decision to suspend Houston's GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch for one year, the Astros decided they didn't need to wait that long: both men were quickly fired by owner Jim Crane.

At the same time, penalties were not yet handed out to current Red Sox manager Alex Cora, himself a former member of the Astros' coaching staff and a key player in the cheating scandals for both teams. Perhaps taking another page from the Houston playbook, Boston and Cora decided to "part ways" even before the results of the investigation were produced.

So Luhnow, Hinch and Cora are all out of work, with their reputations so tarnished they'll likely never work in baseball again. But the question still needs to be asked: was it worth it?

We can talk about "tainted wins" or "fair play" all day. But here are the facts: the Astros all got World Series rings. The Red Sox got their parade. Everyone on those teams received the accolades, endorsements and pay raises that come with a world championship. Major League Baseball isn't about to vacate a title as the NCAA might have done.

Even better, those teams don't have to worry about their legacies moving forward. Barry Bonds has a lot of records that even asterisks can't take away, but the cloud of PEDs still hangs over him and his chances for the Hall of Fame. No amount of scrutiny can take away those rings now.

Teams will always attempt to get a competitive advantage. They've done it since the beginning of baseball and they won't stop now. Might these penalties make teams think twice before they step over the line? Perhaps. But it's clear that unless you get caught, the rewards outweigh the risks.