I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing

Is April 11th too early to start questioning the moves the Yankees made in the off-season? If not, is three games too soon to send mixed signals to a player who should be an integral part of your season? Does anyone really need a day off by Game 4?

While the Yankees were impressive over the weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the rival Red Sox, the opening week of the season provides no respite. Ahead of tonight's game against Toronto, manager Aaron Boone released the following lineup:

Worth noting are two items highlighted in red. The first has D.J. LeMahieu leading off, supplanting this weekend's lead-off hitter, Josh Donaldson. It was an interesting choice, using the power-hitting Donaldson as a lead-off batter. LeMahieu, on the other hand, has been used primarily as the #1 batter in the lineup so that makes sense. That said, does Donaldson need a day off already, against his former team, no less?

More puzzling, perhaps, is the insertion of utility-man Marwin Gonzalez at shortstop. Gonzalez played well in the spring, and certainly deserves an opportunity to play. Unfortunately, Gonzalez sees the field at the direct expense of the new Yankees shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa. 

Perhaps I'm reading into this too much, but a 3-game sample size is a bit small to be sending a vote of no-confidence to your (ostensibly) starting shortstop. Kiner-Falefa wasn't great against Boston, managing only a single hit in 11 at-bats. But that's hardly worth a trip to the bench in Week 1 of a very long baseball season.

Back to Donaldson. Day off or otherwise, with Donaldson out of the lineup, it underscores the very basic problem with the makeup of the 2022 Yankees: they have lots of guys at DH. Whether it's Stanton, an adventure in the outfield, or LeMahieu, a man without a position, or Donaldson, a 3B by trade but not necessarily in practice, Boone must play a daily game of musical chairs with his lineup. 

One vitally important note about that practice, that even the most novice fantasy baseball players can tell you: if you have a guy who isn't in the lineup every day, there's probably a better player somewhere else who could take his place. (I don't see Juan Soto sitting out too many games for Yadiel Hernandez.) While it affords Boone some flexibility to have super-subs like LeMaheiu and Gonzalez to deploy on a nightly basis, it also means that someone else is NOT going to play. On certain nights, with Stanton in the outfield, or with Kiner-Falefa out of the lineup, the Yankee defense may suffer. 

Baseball is great because over the course of 162 games, any and all conjectures will either be borne out or disproven. Statistics will ultimately write the story: games played, runs produced, games won. Yet even then, the post-season awaits those teams good enough to qualify. And as is often the case, a team built to withstand 162 games -- malleable lineups, with subs available up and down -- is not necessarily the team built to win a short playoff series. But we'll have to wait until October before we start complaining about that.

The Rocket Man Fizzles Out

"Brian McNamee? Um, who?"

To almost no one's surprise, the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame induction class was announced and Roger Clemens wasn't on the list. Along with Barry Bonds, Clemens has served as the poster-boy for the Steroid Era in baseball. Neither superstar had been able to crack the 75% barrier over the past 10 years, and with this last ballot, both fall short.

Much has been written over the years about Clemens, Bonds, steroids and the Hall. But this year, their last year of eligibility, has seen a slew of articles lamenting other writers' collective stance on accused steroid users. One even wrote that it would be a failure of the Hall of Fame if Bonds wasn't inducted.

But I'm not here to talk about Bonds. This is a Clemens story. Specifically, a story about how the voters got it right. That while Roger Clemens was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in the late '80s, by 1996 his skills had diminished.

In order to put everything into perspective, one first needs to understand just how dominant Clemens was in his prime. Here are some of the mind-blowing stats Clemens put up between 1986 and 1992:

• Three Cy Young awards
• 2.66 ERA
• 1.09 WHIP
• 136-63 record (.683 win %)
• Averaged 257 IP and 239 K's
• Led the AL in ERA four times
• Led the AL in K's twice

But starting in 1993, the Rocket began to fade. To be clear: this wasn't a blip or an aberration. This was a steady and consistent decline from the level of excellence he'd established. From' 93 to '96, Clemens was no longer the best pitcher in baseball:

• ERA jumped more than a full run to 3.77
• WHIP rose to 1.29
• Two losing seasons, and a record of 40-39
• Averaged only 186 IP, over a 70-inning drop

By the end of the '96 season, fans were wondering if Clemens had pitched his last game in Boston. He had. But then a funny thing happened. Roger Clemens, age 31 and trending downward, got better. And not just a little better.

In his two seasons in Toronto, Clemens was even more dominant than he was in Boston. Back-to-back Cy Young awards. Leading the league in Wins, ERA and strikeouts. Almost 500 innings pitched in just two seasons. It was a remarkable turnaround. But eventually, we all understood how it had happened. 

Roger Clemens had pitched 13 seasons in the major leagues by 1996, and had won 192 games and three Cy Young awards. Assuming his continued decline, Clemens would have been lucky to hang around for 4 or 5 more seasons and rack up perhaps another 50 wins. It's entirely possible that his resume -- 240 wins, the Cy Youngs, that truly dominant 7-year stretch -- might have been enough to earn a ticket to Cooperstown. But we'll never know. 

Instead, Clemens employed a steroid and PED regimen that turned him into the Barry Bonds of pitching: an other-worldly presence who defied not only age, but explanation. Until the truth came out, and the Baseball Writers decided that cheaters don't belong in the Hall. In the end, Clemens only has himself to blame. 

"It's Christmas, Theo, it's the time of miracles!"

Congratulations Coach Harbaugh. It's been a long time coming. The work isn't over yet, but you did something most of us thought would never happen.

GO BLUE!

 

Synthetic Debate

The second week of November not only brings us the latest College Football Playoff rankings but the inherent controversy around those standings. Perhaps even more so than the initial rankings, the CFP committee this week left some folks shaking their heads, with others shaking their fists. But might this be more of a "little c" controversy instead? 

The biggest point of contention this week centers around the state of Michigan: last week's #3 team, Michigan State, got clobbered by Purdue. The Spartans tumbled to #7, just behind... #6 Michigan! Yes, Michigan, the team that was previously unbeaten before falling to Michigan State the week before now sits ahead of them in the rankings.

This is a manufactured controversy. The committee viewed MSU's loss to Purdue, an unranked opponent, as a "worse loss" than Michigan's loss to an unbeaten, top 10 team in, ironically, Michigan State. But neither ranking on November 9th means anything.

With three weeks left to go before the conference championships, there is A LOT of football left to be played. Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face the #4 team in the CFP, Ohio State. OSU figures to be heavy favorites in both games, so chances are good both Michigan teams will drop from the top 10 before the season is out. Should either prevail, they could potentially end up in the top 4 themselves.

Another point of "contention" is Alabama and their spot at #2. With one loss, the Crimson Tide has fans of unbeaten Cincinnati and Oklahoma crying foul. The Oregon and OSU camps have also raised questions about the Tide. But again: if things play out as expected, Alabama will face #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, a 2-loss Alabama team drops out of the playoff picture. Should 'Bama prevail, they would likely rise to #1 and confirm the committee's perceptions. 

Less controversial, but still hotly debated, are those two previously mentioned unbeatens who can't seem to gain the respect of the committee: Cincinnati and Oklahoma. Though both the Bearcats and Sooners gained ground this week vs the initial rankings, neither cracked the playoff ceiling. 

Unlike the problems discussed above, these questions aren't as easily resolved. It's not hard to imagine both teams winning out and neither qualifying for the playoffs. While Cincy is vying to become the first non-Power 5 school to make the playoff, no unbeaten Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the cut. Could this be the year that the committee sends Oklahoma packing to the Sugar Bowl instead?

Again, so many games have yet to be played. The results of this weekend's games will factor into next week's rankings. Who knows what will happen on Saturday or what we'll be arguing about on Tuesday? The playoff committee knows this all too well.

Enough Is Enough Is Enough

As the old saying goes, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The next obvious question becomes, "How many times does Jim Harbaugh need to lose a big game before it becomes apparent that he's not a big game coach?"

The smoke has cleared following Michigan's latest failure, a 37-33 loss to Michigan State on Saturday, yet another excruciating Wolverines' loss at the hands of a bitter rival. To that end, here is just a sampling of the ugly numbers from the Harbaugh Era against top competition: 

• 3-4 vs Michigan State
• 0-5 vs Ohio State
• 2-13 vs teams ranked in the Top 10
• 1-4 in Bowl games

In spite of their 7-0 record and #6 ranking coming into this weekend, anyone watching the 2021 Wolverines closely could have seen Saturday's game coming. Against Rutgers, Michigan got a big lead early, failed to close them out, but held on for the win. Off to an early start against Nebraska, Michigan once again failed to put a team away, going so far as fall behind before eventually making a comeback. Michigan State, though, is simply better than those other teams. Up 16 in the 3rd quarter, Michigan couldn't put Sparty away. The Wolverines were outscored 23-3 the rest of the way.

This is Year 7 under Harbaugh. Since he took over, Michigan has employed three different Offensive and Defensive coordinators. Not a lot of consistency there, though Don Brown was a defensive genius for five seasons, until he wasn't. Josh Gattis was brought in to modernize the Wolverines' offense. Similar to Brown, offensive performance improved under Gattis, until late in the game when it doesn't. 

At this point, it's no stretch to think that Michigan could lose to a scrappy Penn State team on the road. Don't even think about competing against Ohio State. Should that happen, Harbaugh will have another 9-3 record before making the inevitable trip to the Outback Bowl to get beaten by Auburn. 

After the true disaster that was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Harbaugh was given another chance to right the ship. Despite the 7-0 start, we're right back where we started. Michigan loses to top competition. Michigan loses to a big rival. Stop the insanity. Harbaugh needs to go.

Dogging the Dawgs

Don't get me wrong: the Georgia Bulldogs have the #1 defense in the country, by a lot. They are a ferocious bunch, having surrendered only 5 touchdowns in 7 games. It's not hard to see them arriving unbeaten to the SEC Championship game in December. In fact, perhaps only Florida will provide much of a test for the Bulldogs the rest of the way.

But before we anoint the Dawgs as national champs or even as a historic defense, we might want to take a deeper dive into those numbers. Specifically, exactly who has Georgia been stopping all season?

A quick check of their opponents tells the story. Here are the current total offense rankings for Georgia's seven opponents this season:

• #18 - Arkansas
• #30 - Auburn
• #76 - Kentucky
• #84 - UAB
• #114 - South Carolina
• #117 - Clemson
• #124 - Vanderbilt

Three of their opponents couldn't even crack the top 100 in offense. Two more aren't better than 75th. In fact, Arkansas was the only team Georgia played with even a top 20 offense. 

On average, those teams gained 373 yards per game, which would place them 85th in the nation. Take out Arkansas, the best offensive team the Dawgs have played, and their opponents' average falls to 356 yards, "good" for just 98th overall. Yes, Georgia shut these teams down. But it seems the rest of college football hasn't had much trouble with the likes of Vandy, S.C. or Clemson, either.

None of this is Georgia's fault. You play the teams on your schedule, and Georgia has absolutely dominated. Vanderbilt gained only 77 yards! Even as badly as those teams have moved the ball all year, their totals against Georgia were far short of their per game averages. But it certainly puts into perspective just how dominant a group the Georgia D has been.

All of this is a long way of saying: let's wait and see. More than likely, Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC Championship game. As of this week, the Crimson Tide has the 10th-best offense in the nation, averaging almost 500 yards per game. Alabama will be far-and-away the biggest test of the Georgia defense. 

Should the Dawgs get past the Tide, the College Football playoffs would await. So might a date with history. Or perhaps a date with Ohio State, the nation's top ranked-offense. As much as I hate both teams, that could be one helluva title game.

Simple Math

The 2021 baseball season is winding down, but the playoff races are heating up! As of this morning, the Yankees hold a 1/2-game lead on the Blue Jays for the second A.L. Wildcard. The Yanks are also 2 games behind the Red Sox, who would own the first Wildcard spot. The Yanks and Sox have 9 games left to play this season, while the Blue Jays have 10 on the schedule.

Who will win enough games to qualify for the post-season? Let's dig into the playoff math.

YANKEES

The Yankees play three games each against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays, the first two series on the road. The first thing that jumps out at you are the records: all three opponents are playoff contenders, well above .500 on the season. The optimist says that the Yankees have their fate in their hands: beat the teams ahead of you and move up in the standings. The realist looks at the head-to-head results and doesn't like what they show:

• 6-10 vs Boston
• 6-10 vs Toronto
• 7-9 vs Tampa Bay

Of the three teams fighting it out, New York has by far the toughest schedule.

BOSTON

Once they finish up with the Yankees at home, the Sox finish the season on the road... but against Baltimore and Washington. At 48-104, the Orioles have the worst record in baseball. Though the Nationals have played better of late, they aren't a very good team. They have also struggled mightily against .500 teams, going 29-56. It would be hard to see the Red Sox losing too many games past the Yankee series.

TORONTO

The Blue Jays will play 10 games, one more than the other two. Fortunately for them, they get the Twins four times, yet another cellar-dweller. The Jays will then face the Yankees and finish out the season at home against the aforementioned Orioles. Like Boston, the Jays don't face much competition beyond the Yankees for the rest of the way.

Like the saying goes, the games aren't played on paper. Anything can, and will, happen on the field. But you ignore the data at your peril. The Yankees are 19-29 against their remaining opponents. Boston and Toronto are a combined 45-22 against the teams they will face, including the Yankees. As had been said before, the baseball season is long enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The simple math says the Yankees will be watching the playoffs at home this October.