Dogging the Dawgs

Don't get me wrong: the Georgia Bulldogs have the #1 defense in the country, by a lot. They are a ferocious bunch, having surrendered only 5 touchdowns in 7 games. It's not hard to see them arriving unbeaten to the SEC Championship game in December. In fact, perhaps only Florida will provide much of a test for the Bulldogs the rest of the way.

But before we anoint the Dawgs as national champs or even as a historic defense, we might want to take a deeper dive into those numbers. Specifically, exactly who has Georgia been stopping all season?

A quick check of their opponents tells the story. Here are the current total offense rankings for Georgia's seven opponents this season:

• #18 - Arkansas
• #30 - Auburn
• #76 - Kentucky
• #84 - UAB
• #114 - South Carolina
• #117 - Clemson
• #124 - Vanderbilt

Three of their opponents couldn't even crack the top 100 in offense. Two more aren't better than 75th. In fact, Arkansas was the only team Georgia played with even a top 20 offense. 

On average, those teams gained 373 yards per game, which would place them 85th in the nation. Take out Arkansas, the best offensive team the Dawgs have played, and their opponents' average falls to 356 yards, "good" for just 98th overall. Yes, Georgia shut these teams down. But it seems the rest of college football hasn't had much trouble with the likes of Vandy, S.C. or Clemson, either.

None of this is Georgia's fault. You play the teams on your schedule, and Georgia has absolutely dominated. Vanderbilt gained only 77 yards! Even as badly as those teams have moved the ball all year, their totals against Georgia were far short of their per game averages. But it certainly puts into perspective just how dominant a group the Georgia D has been.

All of this is a long way of saying: let's wait and see. More than likely, Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC Championship game. As of this week, the Crimson Tide has the 10th-best offense in the nation, averaging almost 500 yards per game. Alabama will be far-and-away the biggest test of the Georgia defense. 

Should the Dawgs get past the Tide, the College Football playoffs would await. So might a date with history. Or perhaps a date with Ohio State, the nation's top ranked-offense. As much as I hate both teams, that could be one helluva title game.

Simple Math

The 2021 baseball season is winding down, but the playoff races are heating up! As of this morning, the Yankees hold a 1/2-game lead on the Blue Jays for the second A.L. Wildcard. The Yanks are also 2 games behind the Red Sox, who would own the first Wildcard spot. The Yanks and Sox have 9 games left to play this season, while the Blue Jays have 10 on the schedule.

Who will win enough games to qualify for the post-season? Let's dig into the playoff math.

YANKEES

The Yankees play three games each against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays, the first two series on the road. The first thing that jumps out at you are the records: all three opponents are playoff contenders, well above .500 on the season. The optimist says that the Yankees have their fate in their hands: beat the teams ahead of you and move up in the standings. The realist looks at the head-to-head results and doesn't like what they show:

• 6-10 vs Boston
• 6-10 vs Toronto
• 7-9 vs Tampa Bay

Of the three teams fighting it out, New York has by far the toughest schedule.

BOSTON

Once they finish up with the Yankees at home, the Sox finish the season on the road... but against Baltimore and Washington. At 48-104, the Orioles have the worst record in baseball. Though the Nationals have played better of late, they aren't a very good team. They have also struggled mightily against .500 teams, going 29-56. It would be hard to see the Red Sox losing too many games past the Yankee series.

TORONTO

The Blue Jays will play 10 games, one more than the other two. Fortunately for them, they get the Twins four times, yet another cellar-dweller. The Jays will then face the Yankees and finish out the season at home against the aforementioned Orioles. Like Boston, the Jays don't face much competition beyond the Yankees for the rest of the way.

Like the saying goes, the games aren't played on paper. Anything can, and will, happen on the field. But you ignore the data at your peril. The Yankees are 19-29 against their remaining opponents. Boston and Toronto are a combined 45-22 against the teams they will face, including the Yankees. As had been said before, the baseball season is long enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The simple math says the Yankees will be watching the playoffs at home this October.

Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up?

Compared to all other sports, the baseball season is long. So long, in fact, that over 162 games, the season takes into account all the highs and lows, the streaks, and the slumps. The Yankees won 13 games in a row not long ago, then somehow pivoted into a 2-11 free-fall. Those 26 games taken as a whole work out to 15-11. A record of 15-11 doesn't sound all that special. But over an entire season, if a team won 15 of every 26 games they played, they'd finish with 93 wins. Cream rises, while the flukes usually sink.

The 2021 Yankees aren't a 93-win team. Of course, they're not really a 2-11 terrible team, either. The truth of the Yankees lies somewhere in between. Their record is akin to how they play: all-or-nothing, swing-and-miss but sometimes connect. Pitch well for a while, but maybe blow the lead, the save, or the game. I like to say they are “consistently inconsistent”.

In the end, they are the hallmark of the Brian Cashman era:

• Play well enough to appear competitive

• Win just enough to keep the stadium coffers full

• Do just enough to make it look like you know what you're doing

• Fail against better competition in the playoffs

• Repeat for 20 years

It remains to be seen what the Yankees will do over the final 21 games of the season. As of this morning, they would qualify for the 2nd Wildcard and a date with Boston at Fenway Park. But with another loss to the Mets and a Blue Jays win today, the Yanks would be out of a playoff spot.

Either scenario seems equally plausible. Less plausible is the idea that these Yankees will make a deep October push. The Sox, Jays and ultimately the Rays could be standing in their way. If that happens, if the Yankees make another early post-season exit, or fail to make it at all, will that be the final straw? Will Hal Steinbrenner channel his father in the name of winning? Will the Real Slim Shady please stand up?

Off to a Fast Start

Once Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh re-signed on the (reduced) bottom line, the next big question in Ann Arbor became "Who will be the starting QB for the Wolverines in 2021?" Sure it's only August, but there's no time like the present to start second-guessing Harbaugh.

In a somewhat surprising decision, Harbaugh named redshirt sophomore Cade McNamara as the starting QB over highly-touted true freshman J.J. McCarthy. McNamara is the safe choice... which is why I thought that a coach on the hot seat like Harbaugh might want to roll the dice instead.

McNamara appeared in four games last season and made one start. He ended up with a total of 425 yards passing, 260 of which came in a win against Rutgers. He completed 61% of his passes, earning a Passer Rating of 106.3. (As a means of comparison, Alabama's Mac Jones, the Heisman runner-up, had a mind-boggling rating of 203.1) So while McNamara was certainly more consistent than Michigan's other QB, Joe Milton, McNamara was nothing special. Given the way the Wolverines have played during Harbaugh's tenure, one would think that Harbaugh might want a little more than "nothing special" at the game's most pivotal position.

By all accounts, McCarthy is the real deal. A 5-star prospect with All-American tools, McCarthy is the future of Michigan's program. The only thing McCarthy lacks is experience, so why not begin the future right now? Let him get his feet wet against Western Michigan at home. A bigger test awaits in Week 2 as the Washington Huskies come to Ann Arbor. But even then, Washington is facing questions about their defense and might provide a higher profile opportunity for McCarthy to shine. 

By the time Michigan travels to Wisconsin in Week 5, McCarthy could be a seasoned Big Ten quarterback. Instead, should Harbaugh stick with the plan, McNamara will be under center for the biggest game of the season to that point. Will that be enough?

Another factor that works in McCarthy's favor is the very desperate need for Harbaugh to win and win now. Not that Harbaugh is big on making excuses, but starting McCarthy bakes the excuse right in: gaining reps and experience for McCarthy is a tradeoff. Maybe McNamara gives the Wolverines the best chance to win in Week 1 or 3, but an experienced McCarthy may be the only way Michigan will compete against Ohio State. Why not give him the chance to get better in real time against real competition, instead of just working it out in practice? 

It remains to be seen how Cade McNamara will play this season for Michigan. Can he improve on his performance from last year? Or will he be the same steady but unspectacular QB? Either way, it seems unlikely that J.J. McCarthy will remain on the sidelines for long. That being the case, I don't see any reason why he shouldn't take the ball right on that first Saturday in September.

Trader Brian

"Hello? Might I interest you
in some AA prospects?"

Questions surrounding the fate of the 2021 Yankees were answered resoundingly by General Manager Brian Cashman this week. A flurry of splashy trades ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline landed the Yankees on the back page. Going all-in on Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo signaled to the baseball world that these Yanks will be fighting to the finish.

If through all these moves, Cashman manages to assemble a playoff team, then kudos to him. At 53-48, sitting 3.5 games out of a Wildcard spot, no one thinks the Yankees are an October lock. Remaking a roster on the fly in mid-season would be quite an achievement.

On top of that, it doesn't appear that the Yankees overpaid to improve the team. Sure, it's possible that among the haul of players traded away is born another Buhner / Smoltz punchline. Even so, the current Yankees' team will be long disbanded before any one of those minor leaguers makes an impact at the major league level.

HOWEVER... before we start polishing up the Executive of the Year trophy, let's take a step back. Lost in all the excitement of Trader Brian's wheelin' and dealin' is this: Cashman is actively turning over the very same underachieving roster that HE created. The Yankees needed Gallo and Rizzo because the current lineup is unbalanced and sorely lacking left-handed power. If Clay Holmes is the answer in the bullpen, it's because Luis Cessa, Justin Wilson and the parade of arms already out there were not. Today's acquisition of Andrew Heaney speaks quite loudly, too: a pitcher with an ERA north of 5 isn't stepping into a rotation filled with aces. 

On paper, these trades seem great and will surely boost morale both on the field and in the seats. All indications are that the Yankees came away with major league fortifications while parting with only potential pieces of the future. Yet if all these flashy trades amount to an empty October without the playoffs, then someone needs to hold Cashman accountable for that. How much credit do you get for attempting to fix problems of your own making? These next two months should be Cashman's final exam. A failing grade should lead to his overdue exit.

Bull Market, Bear Market

Years ago, a fairly incompetent employee worked in the front office of the New York Yankees. George Costanza, repeatedly failing upward, somehow survived in the organization despite of his lack of accomplishments or any track record of success. (Sounds unfortunately familiar.) 

In addition to not knowing how to run a baseball franchise, George had little knowledge about the stock market. When asked about playing the market, in the midst of a lie, George noted that he's in all the markets: "Bull market, bear market, you name the market, I'm there."

In a roundabout way, that brings us to the 2021 edition of the New York Yankees and the impending MLB Trade Deadline. Throughout this up-and-down season, many have speculated whether the Yankees will be buyers or sellers by the end of July. Put another way, should Brian Cashman be bullish or bearish on this year's squad? 

From a purely mathematical standpoint -- and we all know how Cashman loves his analytics -- the Yankees are still alive for a spot in the playoffs. Though a division pennant is all but a pipe dream following this weekend's disastrous visit to Fenway Park, the Yanks sit only 3.5 games out of the 2nd Wildcard. While having to fight for the last Wildcard is falling wildly short of most pre-season predictions, the post-season is still within reach. Neither team currently in front -- Oakland nor Seattle -- is a complete team that one couldn't see fade as the season wears on. So what's a General Manager to do? 

Over the years, rightfully or wrongfully, Cashman has been reluctant to hit the "reset" button on the roster, whether in the off-season or at the deadline. The belief that New Yorkers won't settle for a non-contender may be true in the short term. Empty seats in September, not to mention an October without baseball, is a loss of revenue for the team. (Teams like Boston, however, have shown over the past two decades that stripping down a team and building it back stronger might be the best formula for long-term success.)

Unfortunately, there are too many holes on the current Yankees team to target any one area of need. Certainly the outfield has been thinned through injury and ineffectiveness. The bullpen, beleaguered of late, could use reinforcements. Even with Gerrit Cole and a rejuvenated Domingo German, there is still a need for a #3 or #4 starter in a post-season rotation. Any of the above could needs can be addressed without sacrificing top prospects or major league stars. A short-term rental typically costs less to acquire and can provide a boost, but will be off the books for next season.

With history as our guide, it seems unlikely that Cashman, or team ownership, will be willing to punt on 2021 while a playoff spot is still in reach. However, reinforcements for a Wildcard run should look decidedly different than a team poised to win it all now. (See San Diego's acquisition of Adam Frazier as an example of a team pushing all their chips into the center of the table.) 

We'll have our answers about the future of the '21 Yankees by the end of the month. (Perhaps we'll know even earlier if three games in Tampa play out like the trip to Boston.) What happens to the Yankees beyond that, and who will be making those decisions, could become more clear by the fall.

The Shot Heard 'Round the Bronx

It's been one day since the Yankees imploded against the Houston Astros, but the wounds are still fresh. By blowing a 5-run lead in the 9th inning, the Yanks suffered their worst loss of the season, if not in recent memory. That it came at the hands of the arch-rival Astros, and off the bat of their nemesis Jose Altuve, made it feel that much worse. But this game will have greater implications on the 2021 season than a single loss.

For one, the loss takes away the shine of winning the first two games of the series in impressive fashion. The Yanks shut out Houston's league-leading offense in back-to-back games, the first time that had happened in over 3 years. They also built a sizeable lead in Sunday's game before it all came crashing down. 

While it's easy to argue that the loss was an anomaly, and that a well-rested Chad Green shuts the door nearly every time, it is also easy to argue that a team on pace to win only 84 games is bound to suffer losses like this. The fact that Green was in the game at all speaks to the fact that manager Aaron Boone and the Yankees have lost a great deal of faith in their highly-paid closer, Aroldis Chapman.

That game also marked the symbolic end of the season's first half. New York slumps into the All-Star break with a 46-43 record, mired in 4th place in the A.L. East. Paradoxically, the Yankees' strong showing against Houston and Seattle belies their overall strength. Taking 4 of 6 games on this past road trip looks good on paper, and dampens the blow from Sunday's collapse.

What's worse, though, is that New York's recent success means it's harder to argue they should be sellers at the trade deadline. That could change, though, as after the break the Yankees will face Boston and Tampa Bay 11 times before the month is out. We will probably know all we need to know about the 2021 Yankees as the July 30th deadline approaches. Sunday's debacle just might be the game everyone talks about if the Yankees don't make a dramatic turnaround in the season's second half.