Of Streaks and Swoons

No team in baseball had a better start to the 2022 season than the New York Yankees. In fact, after going 22-6 in June -- an amazing .786 winning percentage -- the Yanks' record stood at 56-21. Talk then turned to history: at that pace, a team that played .727 baseball would be projected to finish with 117 wins, the most ever in baseball. What a difference a few weeks make.

This past weekend, the Yankees were swept in a series for the first time this season, losing all 3 games to the St. Louis Cardinals. But that was only the icing on a very bad cake. In a stark contrast to their electric start, the Yankees have limped through the opening weeks of the 2nd half. Over the past 30 games, the Yankees are a woeful 12-18, including their first 5-game losing streak.

So what does this all mean? As the expression goes, "You're never as good as you look when you're winning, and you're never as bad as you look when you're losing." The 2022 Yankees, therefore, aren't going to win 117 games, but they're not likely to finish .500 either. 

Thanks to their historic start, the Yankees are still a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Their hold on the best record in the league, though, is tenuous. Fortunately for the Yanks, Houston has been scuffling, too. Otherwise the Astros would have passed the Yankees already. All that said, it doesn't seem like it's time to panic, but context is quite important here.

Say that instead of winning 56 games by July, the Yankees started the first 30 games of the season the way they've played of late. At 12-18 on May 4, that would have been good enough for 4th place in the A.L. East. Very few people would figure that team to win 22 games in a calendar month. 

The case could be made that the Yankees' current swoon impacted their moves at the trade deadline more than their hot start. They reinforced the lineup with Andrew Benintendi, and the rotation with Frankie Montas, both newly-apparent areas of need. Unfortunately, both players have blended seamlessly with their now cold-as-ice teammates. Benintendi is an abysmal 4-30 since donning pinstripes, while Montas got bombed in his first start for New York.

Where do they go from here? A trip to Seattle is up next, where the Yanks will face the one who got away, Luis Castillo. And though the Red Sox have been lost all season, one can imagine how they would relish playing the role of spoiler in a weekend series at Fenway. 

Beyond that, though, could be the stretch that defines the entire season: 9 straight games against the Rays, Blue Jays and Mets, all teams currently in playoff position. If the Yankees can't right the ship by then, even a division lead could be in jeopardy. It remains to be seen which Yankees team will show up over the next few weeks. 

Dispatches from the Trade Deadline

To Live and Die in L.A.

To no one's surprise, Joey Gallo was finally put out of his misery and traded by the Yankees. A certified disaster in pinstripes, Gallo likely had no shortage of fans willing to drive him to the airport, lest he miss his flight to Los Angeles. But before we pull the plug entirely on Gallo, there may be a ray of hope waiting for him in Chavez Ravine.

Let's turn our attention to another big-ticket slugger whose career had seemingly come to an end last season: Albert Pujols. Waived by the Angels in May after a rocky tenure in Anaheim, Pujols quickly latched on with L.A.'s marquee residents, the Dodgers. Used strategically as a pinch-hitter and part-time starter, Pujols found new life. With the Dodgers, Pujols raised his average nearly 60 points and posted his best OPS since the early days in Anaheim. 

Certainly Gallo wouldn't face the pressure he did in New York. If used in a similar fashion as Pujols, could Gallo rebound into a passable major league hitter? Or even regain his form as a fearsome slugger? The Dodgers would like to think that.

Rock Chalk, Yankees

The MLB Trade Deadline is its own cottage industry, as every pundit churns out a constant stream of potential trades and hot gossip. With so much content generated, there is bound to be overlap, and thereby, consensus. This year, the chalk said that the Yanks needed help in the outfield and in the starting rotation. Andrew Benintendi was the agreed upon bat, while Luis Castillo was the most coveted arm. Once Castillo was off the board, though, all Twitter fingers pointed to Frankie Montas. What say you, Brian Cashman? "Done and done."

Both are solid deals and significant upgrades, even if everyone knew the trades were coming. There is nothing inherently wrong with making the pre-ordained trade. If everyone says it will happen, that's probably because there's a need to be filled. 

Last season, though, anyone with a passing interest in baseball and an internet connection had the aforementioned Gallo ticketed for the Bronx. They were right. And you saw how that turned out. 

But the Yankees also made a trade few saw coming: adding another left-handed bat in the form of Anthony Rizzo. He contributed far more down the stretch than Gallo, even if few pundits had predicted it.

All that is a way of saying that it's now up to the players to perform. Will Benintendi be a Gallo or a Rizzo? Under the bright lights of Broadway, will Montas remind us more of David Cone than Sonny Gray? The next few months will tell that story. It will also tell us if Cashman's moves were as smart as they were obvious.

The Theory of Relativity

Speaking of pundits, few had the Mariners on their list of suitors for Castillo. Once that deal was done, many wondered if Seattle had given up too much for the All-Star righty. But to me, trade value is largely relative. What one team feels is too much to pay for an elite starter might be worth it for another. Case in point: the Mariners. 

Owners of the longest playoff drought in baseball, the Mariners pushed all their chips to the center and bet big on Castillo. We all remember what deadline-day stars Verlander, Sabathia and Scherzer did, performing at an elite level and leading their new teams to the playoffs. If Castillo does the same for Seattle, a playoff appearance will mean much more to this team and their fans than whatever those prospects do in 3 or 4 years.

I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing

Is April 11th too early to start questioning the moves the Yankees made in the off-season? If not, is three games too soon to send mixed signals to a player who should be an integral part of your season? Does anyone really need a day off by Game 4?

While the Yankees were impressive over the weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the rival Red Sox, the opening week of the season provides no respite. Ahead of tonight's game against Toronto, manager Aaron Boone released the following lineup:

Worth noting are two items highlighted in red. The first has D.J. LeMahieu leading off, supplanting this weekend's lead-off hitter, Josh Donaldson. It was an interesting choice, using the power-hitting Donaldson as a lead-off batter. LeMahieu, on the other hand, has been used primarily as the #1 batter in the lineup so that makes sense. That said, does Donaldson need a day off already, against his former team, no less?

More puzzling, perhaps, is the insertion of utility-man Marwin Gonzalez at shortstop. Gonzalez played well in the spring, and certainly deserves an opportunity to play. Unfortunately, Gonzalez sees the field at the direct expense of the new Yankees shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa. 

Perhaps I'm reading into this too much, but a 3-game sample size is a bit small to be sending a vote of no-confidence to your (ostensibly) starting shortstop. Kiner-Falefa wasn't great against Boston, managing only a single hit in 11 at-bats. But that's hardly worth a trip to the bench in Week 1 of a very long baseball season.

Back to Donaldson. Day off or otherwise, with Donaldson out of the lineup, it underscores the very basic problem with the makeup of the 2022 Yankees: they have lots of guys at DH. Whether it's Stanton, an adventure in the outfield, or LeMahieu, a man without a position, or Donaldson, a 3B by trade but not necessarily in practice, Boone must play a daily game of musical chairs with his lineup. 

One vitally important note about that practice, that even the most novice fantasy baseball players can tell you: if you have a guy who isn't in the lineup every day, there's probably a better player somewhere else who could take his place. (I don't see Juan Soto sitting out too many games for Yadiel Hernandez.) While it affords Boone some flexibility to have super-subs like LeMaheiu and Gonzalez to deploy on a nightly basis, it also means that someone else is NOT going to play. On certain nights, with Stanton in the outfield, or with Kiner-Falefa out of the lineup, the Yankee defense may suffer. 

Baseball is great because over the course of 162 games, any and all conjectures will either be borne out or disproven. Statistics will ultimately write the story: games played, runs produced, games won. Yet even then, the post-season awaits those teams good enough to qualify. And as is often the case, a team built to withstand 162 games -- malleable lineups, with subs available up and down -- is not necessarily the team built to win a short playoff series. But we'll have to wait until October before we start complaining about that.

The Rocket Man Fizzles Out

"Brian McNamee? Um, who?"

To almost no one's surprise, the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame induction class was announced and Roger Clemens wasn't on the list. Along with Barry Bonds, Clemens has served as the poster-boy for the Steroid Era in baseball. Neither superstar had been able to crack the 75% barrier over the past 10 years, and with this last ballot, both fall short.

Much has been written over the years about Clemens, Bonds, steroids and the Hall. But this year, their last year of eligibility, has seen a slew of articles lamenting other writers' collective stance on accused steroid users. One even wrote that it would be a failure of the Hall of Fame if Bonds wasn't inducted.

But I'm not here to talk about Bonds. This is a Clemens story. Specifically, a story about how the voters got it right. That while Roger Clemens was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in the late '80s, by 1996 his skills had diminished.

In order to put everything into perspective, one first needs to understand just how dominant Clemens was in his prime. Here are some of the mind-blowing stats Clemens put up between 1986 and 1992:

• Three Cy Young awards
• 2.66 ERA
• 1.09 WHIP
• 136-63 record (.683 win %)
• Averaged 257 IP and 239 K's
• Led the AL in ERA four times
• Led the AL in K's twice

But starting in 1993, the Rocket began to fade. To be clear: this wasn't a blip or an aberration. This was a steady and consistent decline from the level of excellence he'd established. From' 93 to '96, Clemens was no longer the best pitcher in baseball:

• ERA jumped more than a full run to 3.77
• WHIP rose to 1.29
• Two losing seasons, and a record of 40-39
• Averaged only 186 IP, over a 70-inning drop

By the end of the '96 season, fans were wondering if Clemens had pitched his last game in Boston. He had. But then a funny thing happened. Roger Clemens, age 31 and trending downward, got better. And not just a little better.

In his two seasons in Toronto, Clemens was even more dominant than he was in Boston. Back-to-back Cy Young awards. Leading the league in Wins, ERA and strikeouts. Almost 500 innings pitched in just two seasons. It was a remarkable turnaround. But eventually, we all understood how it had happened. 

Roger Clemens had pitched 13 seasons in the major leagues by 1996, and had won 192 games and three Cy Young awards. Assuming his continued decline, Clemens would have been lucky to hang around for 4 or 5 more seasons and rack up perhaps another 50 wins. It's entirely possible that his resume -- 240 wins, the Cy Youngs, that truly dominant 7-year stretch -- might have been enough to earn a ticket to Cooperstown. But we'll never know. 

Instead, Clemens employed a steroid and PED regimen that turned him into the Barry Bonds of pitching: an other-worldly presence who defied not only age, but explanation. Until the truth came out, and the Baseball Writers decided that cheaters don't belong in the Hall. In the end, Clemens only has himself to blame. 

"It's Christmas, Theo, it's the time of miracles!"

Congratulations Coach Harbaugh. It's been a long time coming. The work isn't over yet, but you did something most of us thought would never happen.

GO BLUE!

 

Synthetic Debate

The second week of November not only brings us the latest College Football Playoff rankings but the inherent controversy around those standings. Perhaps even more so than the initial rankings, the CFP committee this week left some folks shaking their heads, with others shaking their fists. But might this be more of a "little c" controversy instead? 

The biggest point of contention this week centers around the state of Michigan: last week's #3 team, Michigan State, got clobbered by Purdue. The Spartans tumbled to #7, just behind... #6 Michigan! Yes, Michigan, the team that was previously unbeaten before falling to Michigan State the week before now sits ahead of them in the rankings.

This is a manufactured controversy. The committee viewed MSU's loss to Purdue, an unranked opponent, as a "worse loss" than Michigan's loss to an unbeaten, top 10 team in, ironically, Michigan State. But neither ranking on November 9th means anything.

With three weeks left to go before the conference championships, there is A LOT of football left to be played. Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face the #4 team in the CFP, Ohio State. OSU figures to be heavy favorites in both games, so chances are good both Michigan teams will drop from the top 10 before the season is out. Should either prevail, they could potentially end up in the top 4 themselves.

Another point of "contention" is Alabama and their spot at #2. With one loss, the Crimson Tide has fans of unbeaten Cincinnati and Oklahoma crying foul. The Oregon and OSU camps have also raised questions about the Tide. But again: if things play out as expected, Alabama will face #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, a 2-loss Alabama team drops out of the playoff picture. Should 'Bama prevail, they would likely rise to #1 and confirm the committee's perceptions. 

Less controversial, but still hotly debated, are those two previously mentioned unbeatens who can't seem to gain the respect of the committee: Cincinnati and Oklahoma. Though both the Bearcats and Sooners gained ground this week vs the initial rankings, neither cracked the playoff ceiling. 

Unlike the problems discussed above, these questions aren't as easily resolved. It's not hard to imagine both teams winning out and neither qualifying for the playoffs. While Cincy is vying to become the first non-Power 5 school to make the playoff, no unbeaten Power 5 conference champion has ever missed the cut. Could this be the year that the committee sends Oklahoma packing to the Sugar Bowl instead?

Again, so many games have yet to be played. The results of this weekend's games will factor into next week's rankings. Who knows what will happen on Saturday or what we'll be arguing about on Tuesday? The playoff committee knows this all too well.

Enough Is Enough Is Enough

As the old saying goes, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." The next obvious question becomes, "How many times does Jim Harbaugh need to lose a big game before it becomes apparent that he's not a big game coach?"

The smoke has cleared following Michigan's latest failure, a 37-33 loss to Michigan State on Saturday, yet another excruciating Wolverines' loss at the hands of a bitter rival. To that end, here is just a sampling of the ugly numbers from the Harbaugh Era against top competition: 

• 3-4 vs Michigan State
• 0-5 vs Ohio State
• 2-13 vs teams ranked in the Top 10
• 1-4 in Bowl games

In spite of their 7-0 record and #6 ranking coming into this weekend, anyone watching the 2021 Wolverines closely could have seen Saturday's game coming. Against Rutgers, Michigan got a big lead early, failed to close them out, but held on for the win. Off to an early start against Nebraska, Michigan once again failed to put a team away, going so far as fall behind before eventually making a comeback. Michigan State, though, is simply better than those other teams. Up 16 in the 3rd quarter, Michigan couldn't put Sparty away. The Wolverines were outscored 23-3 the rest of the way.

This is Year 7 under Harbaugh. Since he took over, Michigan has employed three different Offensive and Defensive coordinators. Not a lot of consistency there, though Don Brown was a defensive genius for five seasons, until he wasn't. Josh Gattis was brought in to modernize the Wolverines' offense. Similar to Brown, offensive performance improved under Gattis, until late in the game when it doesn't. 

At this point, it's no stretch to think that Michigan could lose to a scrappy Penn State team on the road. Don't even think about competing against Ohio State. Should that happen, Harbaugh will have another 9-3 record before making the inevitable trip to the Outback Bowl to get beaten by Auburn. 

After the true disaster that was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Harbaugh was given another chance to right the ship. Despite the 7-0 start, we're right back where we started. Michigan loses to top competition. Michigan loses to a big rival. Stop the insanity. Harbaugh needs to go.