Bull Market, Bear Market

Years ago, a fairly incompetent employee worked in the front office of the New York Yankees. George Costanza, repeatedly failing upward, somehow survived in the organization despite of his lack of accomplishments or any track record of success. (Sounds unfortunately familiar.) 

In addition to not knowing how to run a baseball franchise, George had little knowledge about the stock market. When asked about playing the market, in the midst of a lie, George noted that he's in all the markets: "Bull market, bear market, you name the market, I'm there."

In a roundabout way, that brings us to the 2021 edition of the New York Yankees and the impending MLB Trade Deadline. Throughout this up-and-down season, many have speculated whether the Yankees will be buyers or sellers by the end of July. Put another way, should Brian Cashman be bullish or bearish on this year's squad? 

From a purely mathematical standpoint -- and we all know how Cashman loves his analytics -- the Yankees are still alive for a spot in the playoffs. Though a division pennant is all but a pipe dream following this weekend's disastrous visit to Fenway Park, the Yanks sit only 3.5 games out of the 2nd Wildcard. While having to fight for the last Wildcard is falling wildly short of most pre-season predictions, the post-season is still within reach. Neither team currently in front -- Oakland nor Seattle -- is a complete team that one couldn't see fade as the season wears on. So what's a General Manager to do? 

Over the years, rightfully or wrongfully, Cashman has been reluctant to hit the "reset" button on the roster, whether in the off-season or at the deadline. The belief that New Yorkers won't settle for a non-contender may be true in the short term. Empty seats in September, not to mention an October without baseball, is a loss of revenue for the team. (Teams like Boston, however, have shown over the past two decades that stripping down a team and building it back stronger might be the best formula for long-term success.)

Unfortunately, there are too many holes on the current Yankees team to target any one area of need. Certainly the outfield has been thinned through injury and ineffectiveness. The bullpen, beleaguered of late, could use reinforcements. Even with Gerrit Cole and a rejuvenated Domingo German, there is still a need for a #3 or #4 starter in a post-season rotation. Any of the above could needs can be addressed without sacrificing top prospects or major league stars. A short-term rental typically costs less to acquire and can provide a boost, but will be off the books for next season.

With history as our guide, it seems unlikely that Cashman, or team ownership, will be willing to punt on 2021 while a playoff spot is still in reach. However, reinforcements for a Wildcard run should look decidedly different than a team poised to win it all now. (See San Diego's acquisition of Adam Frazier as an example of a team pushing all their chips into the center of the table.) 

We'll have our answers about the future of the '21 Yankees by the end of the month. (Perhaps we'll know even earlier if three games in Tampa play out like the trip to Boston.) What happens to the Yankees beyond that, and who will be making those decisions, could become more clear by the fall.

The Shot Heard 'Round the Bronx

It's been one day since the Yankees imploded against the Houston Astros, but the wounds are still fresh. By blowing a 5-run lead in the 9th inning, the Yanks suffered their worst loss of the season, if not in recent memory. That it came at the hands of the arch-rival Astros, and off the bat of their nemesis Jose Altuve, made it feel that much worse. But this game will have greater implications on the 2021 season than a single loss.

For one, the loss takes away the shine of winning the first two games of the series in impressive fashion. The Yanks shut out Houston's league-leading offense in back-to-back games, the first time that had happened in over 3 years. They also built a sizeable lead in Sunday's game before it all came crashing down. 

While it's easy to argue that the loss was an anomaly, and that a well-rested Chad Green shuts the door nearly every time, it is also easy to argue that a team on pace to win only 84 games is bound to suffer losses like this. The fact that Green was in the game at all speaks to the fact that manager Aaron Boone and the Yankees have lost a great deal of faith in their highly-paid closer, Aroldis Chapman.

That game also marked the symbolic end of the season's first half. New York slumps into the All-Star break with a 46-43 record, mired in 4th place in the A.L. East. Paradoxically, the Yankees' strong showing against Houston and Seattle belies their overall strength. Taking 4 of 6 games on this past road trip looks good on paper, and dampens the blow from Sunday's collapse.

What's worse, though, is that New York's recent success means it's harder to argue they should be sellers at the trade deadline. That could change, though, as after the break the Yankees will face Boston and Tampa Bay 11 times before the month is out. We will probably know all we need to know about the 2021 Yankees as the July 30th deadline approaches. Sunday's debacle just might be the game everyone talks about if the Yankees don't make a dramatic turnaround in the season's second half.

Is One Man's Trash Another Man's Treasure?

A moderately interesting development has just occurred in Knoxville, TN. The Tennessee football program has dismissed their former 4-star freshman QB, Kaidon Salter, after a second off-field issue. How is the state of the quarterback depth chart on a second-tier SEC program interesting, you ask?

For those that may not remember, one of the aspiring starters now at Tennessee is transfer QB Joe Milton, late of the Michigan Wolverines. Yep, there's the connection.

Michigan's head coach Jim Harbaugh as been under fire for the past few seasons, especially after the abbreviated disaster of the 2020 campaign. Among the many problems the Wolverines face is the perceived talent gap between Michigan and other elite programs. But that gap may not be as great as it seems: Harbaugh's recruiting classes are typically among college football's best. That being the case, is it an indictment of Harbaugh and his staff that they can't get the best out of these prized recruits?

Enter Joe Milton, the perfect test case. Milton's cannon arm and imposing size had recruiters drooling, but he never developed as a competent passer at Michigan. In the hands of Josh Heupel, a coach who has a reputation for high-powered offense and elite QB play, will Milton fulfill his 4-star promise? Can Heupel's guidance transform Milton into an All-American at Tennessee, or will he be the same inconsistent and ultimately disappointing player we saw at Michigan?

While the Volunteers will have a rather crowded QB room this summer, without Salter there's one less hurdle for Milton to clear. Should Milton land the starting job in Heupel's offense, who knows what passing stats he could produce? It's a real-time experiment worth watching this season. 

If It Walks Like a .500 Team...

Frustration in the Bronx

It's June 15th, and the Yankees sit in 4th place in the American League East with a record of 33-32. They are not playing well, having lost 13 of their last 18 games, including a brief, 2-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Despite all that, the Yankees haven't given up. At least not in the press:

"I don't think there's any getting used to freakin' losing." -- Aaron Boone

 "Really, the one thing we can do is focus on our work and our preparation, understanding we do have a lot of games ahead of us." -- Domingo German

"We’ve got quite a bit of season left. We do have a little bit of time left to figure that out." -- Brett Gardner 

The Yankees are saying the right things, but is there really "quite a bit of season left" to play? New York has played 65 games in 2021. That represents about 40% of the entire season. How late is too late to turn it around? To quote an old coach from another sport:

“You are what your record says you are.” -- Bill Parcells

And right now, the record says that the Yankees are a .500 team. If the season ended today, not only would the Yankees finish 9 games out in the East behind the Rays, but 4 games out of even the second Wildcard. Is this simply what the 2021 Yankees have to offer? 

In April, it was easy to write off the Yankees' slow start. Only 22 games into the season, there was still plenty of time to right the ship, for the silent bats to awaken. But here we are in June, and the same issues still plague the team: 27th in runs scored, 27th batting with RISP, grounding into the most rally-killing double-plays.

Ever reliant on the home run, even that has failed the team. Though the "Bronx Bombers" are tied for 13th in baseball in homers -- a marked improvement since April -- they are rarely game-changers. Of the 80 home runs the Yanks have hit, 54 of them were solo shots, the 4th-most with the bases empty. Somewhere, Earl Weaver is shaking his head.

Beyond the rah-rah, beyond the speeches and the promises to get grindin', lies a reality that the Yankees need to face: this team, as presently constituted, is not good enough. An over-abundance of strikeout prone, right-handed hitters has doomed the lineup. Injuries and inconsistencies have led to a decline on the mound. The Yankees were 5th in ERA in April, 6th in May. Thus far in June, the Yankees team ERA is 5.38, 22nd in baseball. 

The Yankees also fall on the wrong side of history. Since 1996, the first season with the Wild Card, 85 of the 144 teams that eventually won their division held at least a share of that division lead entering June 1st, nearly 60% of the time. Simply put, good teams that sit atop the division by mid-season tend to stay there. Conversely, there are probably many reasons why a 33-32 team doesn't suddenly climb the standings. Not that it can't happen, but logic tells us otherwise.

If the Yankees continue to slide and miss the playoffs in 2021, what happens next? Will Hal Steinbrenner finally be motivated to make a change in the front office? Will 12 years without a title be a long enough drought for a franchise that spends like a champion? It remains to be seen what happens the rest of the way, and perhaps over a long, cold off-season in the Bronx.

Don't Throw the Boone Out with the Bathwater

Much is being said about the terrible state of the Yankees in 2021, and rightfully so. After a loss to a middling Orioles team last night, the Yankees suffered the indignity of falling into last place in the A.L. East with a record of 9-13. The calendar says that it’s almost May, which by definition would be past the point of dismissing a slow start by saying "It’s only April." As Yogi Berra once said, "It gets late early out there."

While it's perfectly fine to get on the Yankees, I'm also hearing a lot of chatter about their manager, Aaron Boone. Yes, the same Aaron Boone who won 203 games in his first two seasons as the New York manager and has guided the Yankees to the postseason all three years he's been at the helm. Unfortunately for Boone, when a team is slumping as the Yanks are now, the manager is an easy target. But is he the right one?

Of the four major sports, a baseball manager probably has the least effect on a game's outcome. Cumulatively over a 162-game season, even a bad manager will only cost his team a few games versus a "true tactician" pulling the levers. Even the most maligned manager's decisions, typically involving a pitching change (or lack thereof), ultimately come down to whether the player executes or not. Second guessing may be a part of sports, but no manager ever puts a player into a situation where he doesn’t expect that player to succeed.

Bottom line: the players with the NY on their caps and bats in their hands are not getting the job done this season. The Yankees are ranked dead-last in MLB in batting average, a woeful .203 as a team. They are 27th in runs scored, and sport an anemic .650 OPS. Only the Detroit Tigers, who not coincidentally own the worst record in baseball, have had less success at the plate. By contrast, the surprising Red Sox lead the majors in OPS: the team's whopping .795 mark has certainly contributed to their 5th-best record in baseball and first place standing in the East. 

Another popular angle to attack Boone is his seemingly rigid reliance on analytics. Every move he makes, from his lineup to the pitching matchups or to defensive shifts, can be tied back to a mathematical model. Worse, from the average fan's standpoint, is the contention that Boone can't make a decision without checking upstairs first. 

Whether or not Boone is Brian Cashman's puppet is a different debate, but we can all agree that OF COURSE Boone shares Cashman's analytical outlook. That's why he was hired, and why Joe Girardi is managing in Philadelphia. Anyone who thinks that Boone's hypothetical replacement would not follow in lockstep with the Yankee GM is being foolish. (If you'd like to argue that Cashman shouldn't be the GM, well, I've got a lot of columns that support that premise.)

I'm not saying that Boone is the reincarnation of Casey Stengel, or that he doesn't sometimes leave us scratching our heads. It's just that as managers go, Aaron Boone is not the reason the Yankees are 9-13. The players in that lineup are not hitting. Reclamation pitching projects might pitch well for a few innings, but ultimately the bullpen will bear the brunt. To put it another way, don't blame the chef for your meal if the guy buying the groceries keeps shopping on the "Clearance" shelves.

Rules? Where We're Going, We Don't Need Rules

By now you've heard the unsurprising and predictable news that the Big Ten has reversed course and eliminated the minimum-game requirement to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game. In so doing, they named Ohio State as the winner of the East Division despite the Buckeyes having only played 5 games this season. Reaction was swift and about what you'd expect.

Perhaps the only surprise for me was just how quickly the Big Ten member schools rolled over to support this about-face. (Playoff appearances = CA$$$H! for member schools, in case you were questioning motivation.) But even Indiana, who would have been playing in their first Big Ten championship game, stood by the league's decision. Said Indiana Athletic Director Scott Dolson:

"From the start of the year, we have said we can only control what we can control. We had a chance to earn our spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, but ultimately fell a touchdown short on the road against a great Ohio State team."

That is certainly true, and even had Ohio State lost to Michigan, OSU would have held the tie-breaker and beat out Indiana for the East title. Few could argue that had OSU played a full slate of games they wouldn't be considered among the sport's best. But the arguments here didn't necessarily center on how good the Buckeyes looked, but rather how many opportunities they had to show it (or not).

Let's not forget that even in their best years, OSU could be counted on for at least one clunker, close call, or outright upset. Playing 10 games versus 5 certainly invites the possibility of a similar outcome to Clemson-Notre Dame or Florida-LSU. Speaking of Florida...  

Questioned after that consequential upset, Florida Head Coach Dan Mullen had some choice words when asked about his team's now dim prospects of heading to the playoffs:

"I know we’ve played 10 games so I guess probably the best thing to do would’ve been play less games. Because you seem to get rewarded this year for not playing this year in college football."

No pulling punches there, as Mullen echoes what many have said all during this crazy 2020 season. How does one compare the resume of a program with 10 games against SEC competition (four teams in the top 11 of the AP Top 25) to another that has played only half as many games? Do the results matter? If not, to Mullen's point, why play at all?

That outrage wasn't limited to the Big Ten. Last week, the ACC decided that neither Notre Dame nor Clemson needed to risk a possible upset and cut their seasons short in advance of their own ACC title game. This could potentially pave the way for two 10-1 teams to make the playoffs should Clemson avenge their earlier season loss.

In the end, there will be four teams set to face off in whatever version of the College Football Playoffs the 2020 season has to offer. Whoever they are will have a chance to settle the argument of "Who's best?" on the field. But the question of who deserves to have a chance to prove who's the best will echo throughout the sport long past when the games are played.

Time Will Be Telling

In November of 2018 (which seems more like 20 years ago than just two), the Yankees acquired James Paxton from the Mariners in exchange for their top pitching prospect at the time, Justus Sheffield. On the face of it, the trade seemed like a good deal, if only because Paxton was a major-league starter, ready to contribute to a championship contender. Meanwhile, Sheffield was only a prospect, that glorious time when a player's value can only be calculated by an organization's imagination. 

At the time, I wrote that the trade could play out in one of three ways.  Last season, Paxton started slowly but finished strong, but the Yankees didn't win. Meanwhile, Sheffield didn't look good at all in 2019.  Scenario #2, a wash for both teams, played out in Year One.

Year Two, which also happens to be Paxton's last season under contract, is nearly in the books. Paxton took a step back, battling health issues and making only 5 mostly unimpressive starts. It remains to be seen if the Yankees will win a title this year. Less likely will be Paxton making a significant contribution to that title run.

Meanwhile, something funny happened in Seattle. The Mariners made an unexpected push towards the playoffs. Leading that charge was a dominant Justus Sheffield. In September, Sheffield won his last 4 starts, averaging over 6 innings per start without giving up more than 2 runs. While only a small sample in a short season, those are looking like "ace" numbers.

Although no one could fault Cashman at the time for making a move -- it's what General Managers are paid to do -- hindsight is always 20/20. As with any trade, its success or failure may not be known for years. (Ask the guys who traded away John Smoltz or Jay Buhner.) 

If the Yanks let Paxton walk after two seasons without a championship, his acquisition would be no more than a footnote had Sheffield continued to pitch as he had in 2019. But if Sheffield builds upon his 2020 breakout and continues his upward trajectory, this deal may not so easily fly under the radar anymore.