A Sprinter's Chance

PLAY BALL!

Or if the latest headlines are to believed, Major League Baseball will be back on either July 23 or 24. Since we are living in unprecedented times, the upcoming season will be unprecedented, too: a 60-game season, regionally isolated, leading up to a full slate of playoff series.

Conventional wisdom says that in a short series, the better team may not always win. A strange bounce, a hot starter, or an ill-timed slump and the underdog emerges. Could the same hold true for a short season? 

MLB teams are built for a war that stretches for 162 games. Over the course of a long season, the best teams rise to the top. It's hard to be a 90-win fluke. But throughout the season, even a mediocre team can get hot for a stretch. At the same time, even good teams run into a roster-wide slump now and then. Over time, these small bursts of hot play and cold spells tend to even out.

So what happens in a 60-game season when a mediocre team plays well, say for a 12-game stretch? That's 20% of the entire season! Put another way, those same 12 games in 2020 would represent the equivalent of a 32-game span in a normal 162-game season. A team that goes 8-4 over two weeks would have to go 21-11 to have the same impact. 

It will be interesting to watch if another team can make a Nationals-like run, this time over the regular season. Get hot at the right time and make a push for the playoffs and beyond.

Silk Purse or Sow's Ear?

It appears that any idle speculation that Jim Harbaugh and Michigan would part ways (mutually or otherwise) was simply that. As far as we know, Harbaugh will be coaching the Wolverines in 2020.

So what do we make of that? Is Michigan now destined to win 9 or 10 games a season, a second-tier program that consistently falls short of a Big Ten title or the playoffs? Is it okay that the measuring stick is used against the Brady Hoke or Rich Rodriguez eras and not against Ohio State?

While it's hard to say that Michigan would be more or less successful with a different coach, I came across an article that certainly made you think about it. The article listed the schools with the best recruiting classes, on average, over the past five years. Guess which maize and blue team was ranked 8th?

While those results are impressive, it's fair to say that Michigan has not been the 8th-best program in college football over that span. Don't just take my word for it: here's a list of teams that are considered the winningest football programs since 2012:

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Boise State
6. Georgia 
7. Appalachian State
8. LSU
9. Notre Dame
10. Wisconsin

The top four on the list are no-brainers, and forgive me if Boise State and App State, while successful, don't necessarily belong in this discussion. That said, the success of Notre Dame (14th in recruiting) and Wisconsin (not in the top 25) makes you wonder what Harbaugh has been doing with all those blue-chip recruits. 

At least according to certain metrics, Harbaugh seems able to recruit quality players, good for second in the Big Ten. Yet Wisconsin, by the metric of wins and losses, has seemingly produced better results. (The two teams have split four games since Harbaugh's arrival.) 

Is Harbaugh not getting the best out of his players? Is that raw talent not being molded into excellence? It's fair to note that Gus Malzahn hasn't consistently won at Auburn, while Texas is on their 3rd coach in less than 10 years despite their pipeline of talent. Would a different coach do a better job with the current talent on the Michigan roster?

On the other hand, would another coach be as dynamic a recruiter as Harbaugh? Would a Michigan program minus Harbaugh even be able to assemble a team as talented? Would it be worth the risk to find out?

Cheaters Never Prosper?

The fallout from the Astros' cheating scandal continues to reverberate around baseball. Immediately following MLB's decision to suspend Houston's GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch for one year, the Astros decided they didn't need to wait that long: both men were quickly fired by owner Jim Crane.

At the same time, penalties were not yet handed out to current Red Sox manager Alex Cora, himself a former member of the Astros' coaching staff and a key player in the cheating scandals for both teams. Perhaps taking another page from the Houston playbook, Boston and Cora decided to "part ways" even before the results of the investigation were produced.

So Luhnow, Hinch and Cora are all out of work, with their reputations so tarnished they'll likely never work in baseball again. But the question still needs to be asked: was it worth it?

We can talk about "tainted wins" or "fair play" all day. But here are the facts: the Astros all got World Series rings. The Red Sox got their parade. Everyone on those teams received the accolades, endorsements and pay raises that come with a world championship. Major League Baseball isn't about to vacate a title as the NCAA might have done.

Even better, those teams don't have to worry about their legacies moving forward. Barry Bonds has a lot of records that even asterisks can't take away, but the cloud of PEDs still hangs over him and his chances for the Hall of Fame. No amount of scrutiny can take away those rings now.

Teams will always attempt to get a competitive advantage. They've done it since the beginning of baseball and they won't stop now. Might these penalties make teams think twice before they step over the line? Perhaps. But it's clear that unless you get caught, the rewards outweigh the risks.

The World's Least Consequential Upset

I don't often write about college basketball, and if I do, it's even less likely to be about the regular season. But here goes.

No. 1 Blue Devils Upset by Lumberjacks in Stunning Overtime Loss at Home

Duke, the Nation’s No. 1 Team, Loses to Unranked Stephen F. Austin

Duke's loss to Stephen F. Austin ranks as one of biggest upsets in college hoops history

So what happens now that #1 Duke has lost to an unranked team? What will be the fallout of this SHOCKING upset? I don't know, maybe they slip to 2nd in the polls next week.

More so than in even the NHL or NBA, the NCAA basketball regular season is a pointless exercise in jockeying for position. All games played prior to the tournament are just an exhibition, showcases to be played before the nation's pollsters in an effort to impress. Even then, wins and losses are only a small factor in determining the seeding of the brackets.

In fact, would anyone be surprised if the top seeds in each region are today's top four? Mix 'em up any way you like, but Duke, Louisville, Michigan State and Kansas will all be at the top of the regional brackets by March. Perhaps one of them might "drop" all the way to #2.

Once the tournament gets underway, all records really are thrown out the window. The stakes are one-and-done, win or go home. Call me if Stephen F. Austin knocks off Duke again.

Who's Got It Better than Us?

Some moments after Michigan fell into a 21-point 2nd quarter hole, I texted the following to my brother:

There is NO reason why Penn State should be a better team. Or why James Franklin should have better players. Or why a no prestige program like Wisconsin should be better. Or why Urban Meyer could leave and OSU doesn’t skip a beat.

The Jim Harbaugh era is over.

To the team's credit, Michigan put up a fight, cutting the deficit to a single touchdown before falling short, 28-21. But as I told my brother later that night, nothing beyond that point changed my mind.

Here's a bottom line stat for you: Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines are 1-10 against teams ranked in the top 10. Fact: they don't beat good teams. In a year with a favorable schedule like 2018, they can finish 10-2. This season, with ranked teams abound, they'll be lucky to win 9 games.

Placed within the college football universe, a 9-win season could be considered an achievement. But when your goal is to make the playoff and fight for a national championship, 9 wins won't do. Viewed from that perspective, this Michigan team is mediocre. I don’t know who the next Michigan coach should be but they need to start thinking about it now.

Harbaugh's recruits, in turn, are mediocre. After all, you’re a top ranked player, where do you want to play? Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and somehow, OSU, are schools that play for a title every year. Given a choice between Alabama or OSU or Michigan, where’s that kid going? Why can’t Harbaugh make that difference? And if he can't, why not see who can?

The simple math says that Michigan won't be playing for a title this year. The eye test says they won't be beating OSU, either. That would make him 0-5 against the Buckeyes. Again, if they're not playing for a title, and they're not beating OSU, then what has Jim Harbaugh brought to Michigan? More importantly, what would they lose if he left?

All Is Not Lost... Yet

"Oh, that's not good..."

Embarrassing. Dreadful. Whatever you want to call it, Michigan’s 35-14 loss to Wisconsin was an unexpected low point in a season that had already gotten off to a slow start. Fire Harbaugh? I don’t have anything against that move, except I don’t think that making a coaching change at this time would make any difference. You could only make an interim hire from within – the same guys that Harbaugh hired and who share his philosophy.

But while we’re all doom-and-gloom this week, I bring you a silver lining. A very thin sliver of a silver lining based on a tremendous hypothetical, but hope nonetheless. Michigan’s season isn’t over. In fact, this very loss could factor heavily into Michigan's first playoff appearance.

First, let me dispense with the obvious: the Wolverines would need to play MUCH, MUCH better than they played last week. They would, in fact, need to win all their remaining games. That would include wins against ranked Michigan State, Penn State and Notre Dame teams, as well as a win in the game that is to be played on November 30th against a certain team in scarlet and gray.  

So… let's imagine that the aforementioned miracle has occurred. Michigan has reeled off 9 straight wins, nearly half of them against ranked opponents. (Stop laughing and pay attention!) An 11-1 Michigan team would leapfrog in the standings an 11-1 Ohio State team who they just beat, leaving them ranked 6th. Who’s in the top 5, you ask?

Unbeaten Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Wisconsin (those guys!) would comprise the top 5, but the upcoming Conference Championship Week would make all the difference:

• SEC East leader Georgia and SEC West leader Alabama would play in what would effectively be a wildcard game: you win, you’re in. The loser, with one loss and without a conference title, plays in a New Year’s Six bowl
• Meanwhile, a similar scenario plays out in the Big 10. That one-loss Michigan team gets to avenge that very loss against unbeaten Wisconsin. Not only does beating the Badgers give the Wolverines the Big 10 Championship, but it's a November win against an unbeaten opponent – playoff committee style points! Wisconsin gets to play in the Rose Bowl
• Georgia drops, Wisconsin drops, and Michigan slides up to #4

Certainly this scenario plays out in a series of “what-ifs”, and that’s not even taking into account the monumental task of Michigan completely turning around their season to run the table. But if that happened, and everything else falls into place, Jim Harbaugh would save his job and Michigan would be on the way to the playoffs. (That first round matchup against Clemson? Let’s not get into that just yet…)

Are You Not Entertained?

The Alabama Crimson Tide returns to Tuscaloosa for their first home game of 2019, following their resounding, if uninspiring, season-opening victory over Duke.  While the Dukies seemed overmatched by the time the 4^thquarter rolled around, that’s nothing compared to this week’s tackle fodder.  The New Mexico State Aggies arrive in T-Town as a 55-1/2 point underdog.  You read that right.  The 130^th-ranked team in the FBS (that’s out of 130 teams, if you’re keeping track) is expected to lose this game by nearly 7 touchdowns.

Now what could possibly compel the Aggies to schedule a game with perennial powerhouse Alabama?  Ah, that would be $1.7 million that New Mexico State is being paid to get their collective heads handed to them.  Seems very “lambs-to-the-slaughter” but when you’re a team that’s already been bounced from the Sun Belt conference, you take games where you can get them.

No, my real question is this: what is Alabama doing playing a team like New Mexico State?  There’s always the old adage that you can’t simulate game speed.  True, but what if the team you’re scheduled to play just isn’t as fast as the scout team defense you line up against every afternoon?  I dare say that if the Tide simply played a game against their second-team units, it would be a more competitive game.

This isn’t an issue specific to Alabama.  Plenty of Power 5 schools pad their early-season schedules with directional schools (Northern This or Southeast That), FCS opponents, and the like.  And upsets do happen!  But Vegas seems to think the only upset this week will be if the student section for Alabama comes back for the second half.